I wagered with a friend that the Cle. Cav's wouldnt reach 57 wins this yr. there 24-16 now. There odds of 57w?

Question

82g-57g=25 losses, season is almost half over and there sittin on 16 losses. Thinking off letting him off the hook, at %25 of wager, or bait him into double or not. Last season I bet my Det. Pistons, would win 65 and have best record in the NBA. So this is just a friendly rivarly here folks

Answer 1

You can use something like a Poisson distribution to determine the probability. There's a good explanation in Sharp Sports Betting by Stanford Wong and a spreadsheet to help with the analysis on the book's website.