Are there ways of knowing if a late-round pick in the draft will be very effective?

Question

examples include Tom Brady, Brian Westbrook (round three), and those who weren't even drafted. How do you foresee players like these being effective or is there no way of doing that? does this impact the usefulness of first-rounders by saying that those who come in the later rounds are more effective?

Answer 1

Well, to answer simply, No, because if they thought they'd be effective, they'd have gone earlier in the draft...

The whole idea of draft tiering is risk-reward.....You spend more money on earlier round draft picks' salaries, and there's more competition for the players in earlier rounds - that is, its more likely in the earlier rounds that some other team will take the guy you're looking at for a certain round before you. Therefore, you want to use your earlier round picks on players that you think have the best likelihood of filling a need your team has.

The later-round picks are more of a gamble - a common term is "taking a flier" on a player - but, since you're not risking as much, either in salary terms, or the risk that the next player you want will already be taken by your next turn, the risk is lower.

Players can often be skilled, but have character issues that reduce their "draft stock." In this case, you'd probably expect the player to outperform his draft level, if he can keep his off-field problems in check.

Scouts make their entire career attempting to be able to predict future success based on workouts, combines, game film, etc, but in some cases like Brady, and last-round Marques Colston this year for the Saints, sometimes its completely unpredictable how well a player might perform for an NFL team, in a given system and situation, with a little time and maturation from their college playing days.

Answer 2

A first round draft pick is a big investment for a team, and it is probably almost 50/50 that those players never will live up to their hype. The teams that find quality players in the late rounds of the draft are teams who have excellent scouts out in the field. Take Willie Parker of the Pittsburgh Steelers, a guy who was undrafted and sat on the bench his entire college career... a personel person from the Steelers and owner Art Rooney II followed him through high school and thought they would take a chance. You can not underestimate the value of late round picks, but by percentage there are far more first rounders who end up with long NFL careers than there are late rounders or undrafted free agents.

Answer 3

There is no sure fire way but if you pay attention to college Football here are a few tips... always look at leaping ability of college WR's, (standing vertical) 40 times and ability to separate from a defensive back. These are three key elements. As for RB's it truly is dependent on where they go (NFL team) as a professional player. I usually watch the southern schools, and the Middle American conference. These schools will always have some players that are traditionally overlooked and later become stars in the NFL. eg. Jerry Rice from Mississippi Valley State.

Answer 4

Well look at Marques Colston of the Saints. Set the Rookie record for yards, TD's, and games played in a season. Look what he did for the Saints also.

Answer 5

Yes. First you watch the player practice. After that, you put the player in a pre-season game. Finally, if he passes those test, you put him in a real game. If he is succseesful then you got something, If he sucks, you put him on the bench next to Troy Smith.

Answer 6

You never really know how good someone will be no matter where they are drafted. Even No. 1 picks have been absolute busts.

Answer 7

all draft picks are a gamble, the high round picks are based on stats and probability, not on actual performance.

Answer 8

Look at their college videos.

Answer 9

well i know a garunteed way of knowing if they are going to be good nfl players....if they are good when you combine them

Answer 10

yeah