which is more dangerous? Sars or bird flu?

Question

is the next great plague coming soon?

Answer 1

There are a few factors to consider when trying to decide which is more dangerous:
1. What is the end result (% probability of death, sickness and recovery?)
2. How easy does it spread around? How easily can you catch it.
3. If you catch it, can you be cured?

From what we know so far, bird flu is more dangerous when you look at 1 and 3; SARS is more dangerous if you look at 2.

When you look at the overall occurences of both all over the world, SARS may be the more dangerous (for now).

For example, in your comparison:

If you spend a whole day in a room with 10 people who have SARS, you have far more chance of catching it than if you spend a whole day in a room with 10 people with bird flu (at the time I am writing these lines, the versions of bird flu that do exist in humans do not seem to transmit easily between humans).

When bird flu mutates sufficiently to be transmissible between humans, then maybe (we do not know how it will mutate) it could be more dangerous than SARS.

There are rarely great plagues. However, there are often people who will profit from us being scared of the next plague, and they have to make sure that we are more afraid of the one for which they have a pill for sale, rather than the one for which the other company has a pill for sale.

(1999 was an exception: we were supposed to spend all our money on preventing our computers from blowing up at y2k -- the dreaded plague was for computers, not humans).

PS:

Of course, if you need money to run an astronomical observatory, you'd prefer that people dread the killer asteroids instead of all these Earthly sicknesses. From a purely statistical approach, it is possible to prove that the killer asteroid is more dangerous than SARS or bird flu.

Answer 2

There is no plague coming soon. SARS is gone now, that was a quick epidemic that with the cooperation of several nations, was quarantined and contained.

Avian flu is not going to get large enough to kill many humans. It's been around for many years now, but deaths are very rare. It's just way over hyped by the media.

I think the next plague which is already setting in very seriously is ignorance and stupidity.

Answer 3

I wouldn't want either one!
But SARS is a human to human communicable disease whereas Bird flu only affects those living in "close proximity" to infected birds. Bird flu has not mutated into human to human YET! So I would have to say SARS is more dangerous right now.

Answer 4

Im currently working abroad so struggle to keep up to date with current news. However, as long as nothing new has arisen, Sars is worse in my opinion.

Sars is passed from person to person through air. Very easily spread.

Bird flu is passed between the birds and from bird to human in the case of sharing the same space (e.g. in countries where chickens live in the same space as people). At the moment it does not transfer from human to human so there is a much lower risk of catching it.

The major problem would be if the virus mutates into one that does pass from human to human. Mutations are completely random though so we would be very unlucky if that happened.

Answer 5

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Answer 6

I thought they were the same thing. This story of a great plague coming soon is just another excuse to direct our attention away from the real big issues.

Answer 7

They are both 'media hyped'.

But the next big plague will arrive just in time to divert attaention away from some political scandal or invasion of a third worls country...never fails.

Answer 8

Sars, Bird flue, Ebola, I think to be truthful, are all the "Same difference" - are highly contagious, we have not real remedies and will certainly kill you if you happen to be in the wrong place at the right time. Lets hope and pray to our Gods that it does happen.

Answer 9

nah..s'more dangerous buying the wife a rubber mini skirt and going for a night out in norwich

Answer 10

sar