Hold Em, do you sometimes get a vibe for the cards that seem to hit on that one specific table or night?

Question

I have sat at some poker tables and noticed that on occasion or most likely that not the same set of cards keep hitting.

At one casino in AZ during a 3/6 game for the first 4 hours there was a multitude of K-2 pairs on the board. At one point it hit 4 times in a row on the flop.

I was like, good grief this is wierd.

Off course the laws of probability are reset on each hand. But it is still there for all to see, K/2 hits 4 times in a row so hell if I get a K/2 I will play it and the flop will be 678 and some guy will suck out a straight on the river.

LOL

No, I would never make a habit of playing bad cards. Just the thought of mixing it up a little so you don't become predictable.

Answer 1

The probability of any cards hitting on the flop is independently random. However in the longrun the frequency with which cards appear on the flop will normalize. So while it's very likely that the K2 kept hitting over and over in the short run (over two hours) but this says nothing about the likelihood of the K2 hitting again on any subsequent hands. The probability remains unchanged.

The vibe or the "gut feeling" are are attributable to the gamblers fallacy that the probability of any two cards is altered by results from any previous run.

However, sometimes the unexplainable happens. We are in the end talking about poker. If you're on a rush, play it out; no need to ask questions.

Answer 2

Numbers do run in cycles so there is some truth to it, sometimes the flops will be all paint and then they come out all low cards. But over the long hall the flop is always random, i had a table where the flop came out 5 times in a row with 3 clubs.

Answer 3

It is NOT all in your head, there are nights like that that the cards seem to land in a specific pattern. We were just talking about that last night when 3 times in a row a pair of Js turn up on the Flop.

Don't you hate it when people seem to just WANT to disagree with whatever you have to say, just for the sake of it??? He was just wondering if people noticed what he noticed....anyone that hasn't noticed is too absorbed in themselves and not paying attention to the entire table....which is going to get them in trouble...

Answer 4

Probability is a funny thing. Over four hands, or even four hours, anything can happen. Over four months, everything will even out exactly as it should.

If you are playing hands you normally wouldn't play because of trends on the flop, however, you need to rethink that strategy. It will not pay off over time. If you insist on playing these trends, please come play in my home game. lol

Answer 5

It is all in your head. You have a chance of getting a good card or a bad card but you occasionally will be right. Just like those phony psychics that say you are close to somebody with the letter M in their name. Well of course they will be right occasionally if not quite often.

Answer 6

I think its all in your head, think of this scenerio: how many times in the last month have you lost with a AK to lower cards, now think how many times you have won. I think you can point out how many times you have lost and not the other way around, thats because we seem to remember things that cost us money.

Answer 7

She is called Lady Luck. A gambler knows when she is around.