Will the unseasonable warm weather in the Northeast create more cases of the flu?

Question

I pose this question because with warmer weather two things will happen (in my opinion) 1) More people will be out and about because the cold weather will not act to keep people from going outside. 2)The lack of cold weather will not help to kill the influenza virus. Combined these two things theoretically will create more cases. Is there scientific evidence or precedent to refute or support this?

Answer 1

1) What actually counts is the number of exposures, not the number of times you go out. Even in cold years people still have a significant number of exposures doing the everyday things they have to do no matter what the weather. The increased activity of people in a warm winter (if in fact this does happen) will not exponentially increase the the number of exposures, hence any increase in disease spread will be marginal

2) Cold weather doesn't kill the influenza virus.

Answer 2

Let me start by stating that I am only offering a logical conclusion rather than an actual answer. However, I believe that following your line of reasoning, the weather patterns would not act to CREATE more cases of flu, only hasten them. You see, your logic suggests that the virus will spread more effectively in the type of weather we're currently experiencing for the reasons you mention. If that were true, however, the cases being created now would simply be created in March or April, when these weather patterns would normally occur, anyway.So if, in fact, the weather does cause more cases, it will for some reason other than the ones you site.