N Korea...?

Question

We all know that these "sanctions" on any country rarely works, whether countries place them or the UN; they very rarely do anything but p*ss the isolated country off. And in most cases its a power hungry dictator, and they will do the most idiotic things if you piss them off haha.

The main point is; should the US, Japan, and S Korea do something other than these little "sanctions" to make sure Kim Jung Il knows he needs to cut it off, or to MAKE him cut it off? Obviously if hes planning another Nuclear Test, then the sanctions are doing absolutely nothing that affects him.

Also, what would China and Russia do if US, Japan, and South Korea were to make a militarial assault on N Korea? From what Ive read and seen, China and Russia are starting to have some land issues.

Would China take N Koreas side again? And if they did, would Russia take the oppurtunity to grab its land back from China while China was pre-occupied?

So..
-Should they take action?
-What would China and Russia do?

Answer 1

Even China is a little perturbed with N.Korea. China does not relish the idea of another country they share a border with, having nuclear weapons. They also realize that N.Korea is a loose cannon when it comes to diplomacy or even normal negotiations.

It's doubtful the US or Japan will strike the first blow, so if N.Korea decides to be the aggressor, the US and Japan must respond in kind.

No body knows how China would respond to an attack on N.Korea, it's something they would need to weigh very carefully. Personally, I believe they would push for an immediate cease fire of hostilities which the US and Japan would likely respond to, but the wild card in this whole scenario is Kim Jong Il. What would he do?

Answer 2

You are right sanctions rarely work and particularly in this case the sanctions mean very little except for a slap in the wrist. You are aslo right that a slap in the wrist to a dictator is cause for war.

The problem with any military action is actually the conventional weaponry that Kim Jong Il has at his disposal. You see Seoul, one of the largest cities in the world, is only a few kilometres away from the North Korean border, which is the most heavily armed border in the world.

The North Korean Army is HEAVILY dug in and literally has thousands upon thousands of artillery pieces aimed at Seoul. It is estimated that Seoul could be wiped out in less than ten minutes from artillery fire alone. You can't shoot down an artillery shell.

China is a little annoyed at N Korea for not falling into line with Beijing but nonetheless they are not likely to just stand by while Japanese and American troops rush to their border. I think China would still side with N Korea even though they are unhappy with them right now.

Russia is a dark horse in all of this. Its hard to predict what they would do. It is unlikely that Russia would 'grab its land back' from China though because China is very strong militarily right now. China has the world's largest army and do you know what, North Korea is ranked third or fourth on its own.

There are no good options in N Korea. We can only hope that Kim Jong Il dies of his unhealthy lifestyle like his foreign minister did, or perhaps he could be 'encouraged to retire early'.

Answer 3

What do you mean sanctions don't work? They worked against Libya, who gave up their nuke program, they worked against Iraq, who had no WMD program and whose military was weakened by ten years of sanctions, and sanctions keep the DPRK under the influence of China, who keeps them on a leash, though not always as short as we would like. What you mean is sanctions don't automatically cause a country to do exactly what we want. That's not what they are designed to do. They are designed to apply pressure, and provide a carrot for diplomats to offer in negotiations.

If the US Japan, and ROK attacked the DPRK, China would likely invade Taiwan in retaliation, and support the North Korean forces logistically. It's a 50-50 toss up on whether they would send in troops as well. However, the ROK and Japan would not join the US in any attack, unless attacked first. I doubt Russia would risk war with China and grab land. They might offer supplies and assistance in return for the land, but that's about it.

--edit--
Shooting down artillery is harder than shooting down a mortar. It has been done, but the volume of fire the DPRK could send down range would far, far out strip the capabilities of any such system. On the plus side, a whole lot of their arty is likely rusty crap, and they haven't been doing as much effective training with them since the end of the soviet union anyway.

Answer 4

Sanctions have reduced North Korea to starvation and complete dependence on foreign aid for survival.

Most of this aid comes from China.

China is pressuring Kim to back off from sabre rattling.

Russia has little influence and even less to lose or gain by any actions by Kim.

Military action is unnecesary and dangerous.
Our allies, South Korea and Japan would certainly face great loss of life if the U.S. used the military to "solve" this problem.

The USSR collapsed from the steady pressure of U.S. policies.

North Korea is really in the hands of China to handle this problem.

Answer 5

To guy that said you can't shoot down artillery shells. With today's technology I think there is equiptment thats doing that (Lieutenent I know uses something that can shoot down mortar rounds in midair). It all depends on who is on the offensive. Even though North Korea has one of the larges active militaries in the world, it has obselete weapons but each side will put in spies and sabotuers into the other side. South Korea slowly modernized their military with the help of the US by entering in Vietnam and is one of the best trained militaries in the world.
S. Korea's K1A1 tank is feared by North Korea and dubbed it the "Monster Tank." Also it's industry produces 70% of the RoK's equiptment.
I doubt Russia and China will enter to avoid a WW3

Answer 6

Sanctions won't work and N. Korea knows that and also the fact the US will not attack without Chinese blessing something they will not give in our lifetime. The US and others should just come to grips with the fact North Korea is going to have a bomb.
What does that mean? Korea will have ten atom bombs and the US will still have 5000. I'd say the US has the edge.

Answer 7

You say sanctions never work, well, after overthrowing Saddam it was found out that he had not been making them. And his military was very weak compared to their Pre-Gulf War status.

I think they should keep doing what they are doing, since attacking North Korea could lead to a major catastrophe with a Nuke going off.

Answer 8

confident in the event that they bypass over the DMZ 20,000 troops their below treaty will die and it has a merely approximately specific probability of occurring. Taring a armistice is a great deal and isn't any longer in uncomplicated terms like the empty talk Kim gave us interior the previous. this can be the 1st leaving of a armistice that did no longer initiate a conflict. Kim is in his very own international and he chosen via his father to invade South Korea and thanks to this 70% of their GDP is on their militia. It first Obama will play Chamberlain utilising Gates as a fall guy yet 20,000 lifeless troops on the DMZ will reason congress to assert conflict in any different case to the White homestead. properly, it relies upon on what we do and how we combat. the least perplexing and maximum existence saving consists of 6 nuclear bombs dropped on the DMZ collapsing the 1500 foot deep tunnels that homestead NK's 50,000 tanks killing 70% of his military. The tunnels are to deep for bunker busters yet nukes could reason floor interest that would make paintings of it. If we combat a conflict are Air rigidity could be a sitting dock as their military strikes below floor below the DMZ into SKOREA and we can would desire to bypass guy to guy. this could require a draft as our contemporary military is to stretched and 80 5% of the IRR is made from broken bodies. the effect of a hand tied approach could reason 20 to 30 million lifeless as they are going to end a no longer something.