when playing lottery, should I go with the most or least frequently occuring numbers?

Question

I've downloaded the last 2 years (200 pulls) of the multistate Powerball lottery.
I was going to review the 5 most frequently occuring numbers, with the 2 most frequently occuring powerballs, and make a collection of 5 numbers I will play all year.
Then I got to thinking.... would it make more sense to pick the LEAST frequently occuring numbers (thinking that their time would be coming).
And should I use 10+ years of data, instead of just 2?
I play for fun, only $5 2x per week... so what are your thoughts!

Answer 1

Well, probability has no memory...so theoretically, the same number can hit 2 weeks in a row. If you've ever played Roulette in a casino, it's the same principle.

I used to pull data for the Illinois Lottery and play some numbers out of the 6 that seemed to appear more often.

I'm in TN now, and it does seem strange that many numbers in the Lotto 5 keep showing up. I'd say play the numbers that appear more often.

Even though it shouldn't make a difference mathematically, I'd say the last 2 years, versus 10 years.

Btw, When the jackpot keeps rolling over and getting higher, play a little heavier and lighter when it's low (or don't play at all when it's low).

And...no it's not a waste of time or money to play the lottery. My father is a professor in statistics and probablility, and he plays the lottery occasionally.

Answer 2

It's a total waste of money. I would guess that lotteries are as unbiased as is mechanically possible, which would be something like 0.01% Let's say that I'm off by a factor of one thousand, and they're biased by 10% and that you can be 100% successful in divining this bias. When you figure income tax and amortization, the house advantage on Powerball is something like 70% (compared to 1% for craps or 0.1% for blackjack). Bottom line: you're still gonna lose.