Who wants to take Pascal's Wager with me?

Question

Today has been "Why do these pesky atheists come to R&S?" day by the looks of things, but personally I've been missing the daily Pascal's Wager question. So I've been working up to my own (these are all Y!A links below):

http://tinyurl.com/y7o4xw
http://tinyurl.com/yywfa9
http://tinyurl.com/y3hhbj

If you think it's taking a chance NOT to believe, because if you're wrong the consequences are terrible, whereas if you believe and you're wrong, you're just obliviated - shouldn't the greatest risk be in getting it wrong, and worshipping the wrong god? Wouldn't the real god punish them more than those of us who don't believe in any god at all?

What I'm asking is - doesn't Pascal's Wager lead logically to non-belief? If you REALLY don't want to take any chances with the afterlife - shouldn't you be an atheist?

Fair point Y but it's a rhetorical position - be an atheist and if you're right, all is as expected. If you're wrong, at least you're not busted for worshipping false gods.

Answer 1

Well, I had this argument with a christian earlier today.. so, let's look at the possibilities:

First, given that there are more than 2,500 gods known to man, and given Pascal's own assumptions that one cannot comprehend God (or gods), then it follows that, even the best case scenario (i.e. that God exists and that one of the known Gods and theologies happen to be the correct one) the chances of making a successful choice is less than one in 2,500.

Second, Pascal's negative theology does not exclude the possibility that the true God and true theology is not one that is currently known to the world.

For instance it is possible to think of a God who rewards, say, only those who purposely step on sidewalk cracks. This sounds absurd, but given the premise that we cannot understand God, this possible theology cannot be dismissed. In such a case, the choice of what God to believe would be irrelevant as one would be rewarded on a premise totally distinct from what one actually believes.

Furthermore as many atheist philosophers have pointed out, it is also possible to conceive of a deity who rewards intellectual honesty, a God who rewards atheists with eternal bliss simply because they dared to follow where the evidence leads - that given the available evidence, no God exists!

Finally we should also note that given Pascal's premise, it is possible to conceive of a God who is evil and who punishes the good and rewards the evil.

So, given your final question, IF you don't want to take any chances.. CAN you be an atheist? You're still taking a chance on the afterlife.. you're just choosing one of the possibilities that exist... like everyone else is doing.. no?

Answer 2

Maybe you're smarter than Pascal. Maybe you're not.

FYI.........
"God is, or He is not. But to which side shall we incline? Reason can decide nothing here. There is an infinite chaos which separated us. A game is being played at the extremity of this infinite distance where heads or tails will turn up… Which will you choose then? Let us see. Since you must choose, let us see which interests you least. You have two things to lose, the true and the good; and two things to stake, your reason and your will, your knowledge and your happiness; and your nature has two things to shun, error and misery. Your reason is no more shocked in choosing one rather than the other, since you must of necessity choose. This is one point settled. But your happiness? Let us weigh the gain and the loss in wagering that God is. Let us estimate these two chances. If you gain, you gain all; if you lose, you lose nothing. Wager, then, without hesitation that He is."
Blaise Pascal

Answer 3

Pascal's Wager also assumes that if you don't believe/worship and turn out to be wrong, that you are damned for all eternity.

However, if there is a possibility that a 'loving, forgiving' god can allow non-believers into heaven if they've lived a decent life, despite not actively worshipping him, then the Wager is even more strongly favourable to the non-believer.

Answer 4

What I always figure:

If Pascal's Wager posits a fifty-fifty chance of God's existence, and one looks at the thousands and thousands of gods in the world, there's only a fraction of a percent of a chance that following any one is right. Atheism is the safest bet by Pascal's Wager.

Answer 5

I'll take a piece of that, although I'm a bit low on cash...

There are so many possible outcomes, but I believe that a believer has a greater chance of being right simply by believing. If you believe in nothing, and there is any sort of deity, you are 100% certain to be wrong. If you believe in one god, and it's the wrong one, your chances of getting the right one were still better than those of the person who chose nothing. It's like being a non-believer is refusing to even buy a lottery ticket. You can't win if you don't play. Not that I buy lottery tickets, anyway.

I still refuse to "hedge my bets" by believing. I don't believe, and any outcome is fine with me; in fact, I'm dying to find out ;-)

Answer 6

No, if you really don't want to take any chances in the afterlife, you need to make SURE you know the ONE, TRUE GOD. It's really that simple.

Ever notice that Christians are the ONLY group of people that are certain as to where they're going after death? It doesn't matter which part of the world we're from or whether or not we've ever met each other; the ONE common denominator we share is that somewhere in our lives, we met the Saviour, and our lives and eternal destiny were forever drastically changed. I know you don't think much of this, but we KNOW what we KNOW, and atheists and those worshiping a false god will all be in the same predicament come judgment day.

Answer 7

it relatively is a shaggy dog tale and in basic terms a moron might think of it relatively is a win win situation to stay a life-time of fable and waste 10% (tithing expenses)of their confusing earned money and useful time on worshiping a million of thousands of proposed Gods. Pascal neglects to point you ought to %. the suitable God and he does not evaluate the time wasted in worshiping some thing with the comparable info as Santa.

Answer 8

I am a Christian and no argument like yours above can make me stop believing in my God. However, if you feel like throwing this at us, be my guest and take the bet on God's non-existence. I just hope you are right - for your sake. I won't lose anything but things I anyway consider to be immoral.

Answer 9

Yeah. Pascal's Wager today is used largely by: Christian teenagers and children and uneducated Christians. Ironically, my uncle (a devout Pentecostal Christian) tried this argument on me. He tried to switch the subject as soon as I proved Pascal's Wager to be a worthless argument for theism.

Answer 10

Only one small issue with your ideaology - Atheists dont beleive in an afterlife either...

Otherwise, seems logical.