Do you think dvd non-hd movies will become obsolete within the next 3 years? I know one day they wil be...?

Answer 1

Since you have already decided, why ask? But you are wrong! Stand back a bit and look at the reality.

HD DVD movies (blue laser disks = Blu-ray & HD-DVD) are destined to be the video analog to the role of SACD or DVD-A as a high quality -- but low penetration -- alternative to CDs. The real successor to DVDs is more likely to be a totally new technology.

Some reasons:
- Nothing moves that fast ... VHS is still around a decade after DVD came out, and VHS is a REALLY obsolete technology!
- Consumers put higher value on convenience and low price than on quality (look at the popularity of MP3s vs CDs) ... so higher price, equal (or even a marginal decrease in) convenience due to slower loading, and only marginal video quality improvement (even for the minority who have equipment that allow them to see it) over DVDs won't be enough to "sell" most consumers ... at least not quickly. Digital HDTV has to be the standard first.
- Blue laser disks are a solution looking for a problem (marginal improvement over conventional DVDs on an upconverting player)
- High investment by many in existing players and libraries of DVDs make a rapid switch unlikely
- High cost of moving to blue laser DVD ... both players and disks
- Incompatible format "war" making choice problematic ... and without a clear choice (and a perceived need to switch) the average consumer (who will make or break HD DVD) simply won't buy.
- Poor quality, cost and limited choice of blue laser disks ... it will be a long time until normal DVDs are unnecessary if you want to watch an older film.
- Consumer resistance to invest in flawed first generation hardware
- increasing popularity of video on demand, and likely arrival of holographic storage (or other alternative storage technologies).

Manufacturers and studios could have agreed to one blue laser storage medium as a universal format for high definition music and video. This could have reasonably been positioned to replace CD, DVD, VHS, SACD, DVD-A, etc. ... But they didn't. As a result consumers are reluctant to invest $500 - $1000 for yet another marginal device that plays some movies from some studios. Until the "war" is over there will be no winner ... in fact we all lose.

At least one "expert" has opined that given the incompetence of Sony and Blu-Ray supporters and the unpredicted performance of Toshiba and HD-DVD supporters, Blu-Ray has lost the war already and is now only capable of playing spoiler while some other technology has the chance to replace both Blu-Ray and HD-DVD.

Consumers are sheep but are not that dumb! Simply read what is being said on the internet. The experts say don't buy now. Sales are slow. Studio support for Blu-Ray is slipping. Sony's influence is waning.

No way DVDs will be obsolete in 3 years .... 5 - 10 maybe, but not 3.

Answer 2

I would have to agree with the the first person. 5-10 years. You can still buy a VCR and VHS tapes in store and it has been at close to 10 years since DVD movies have come out. I define obsolete as you can't find these at stores and only garage sales. Like cassette tapes and records.

In 5 years, I can imagine a Blockbuster having 25-50% of the store would have DVD movies and the rest high def movies. It takes time for a technology to mature and for everybody to buy into the idea that the new technology is better.

Also, HDTV is not required by all stations until 2010. Therefore, everyone is not required to buy an HDTV. When everyone owns an HDTV, then there will be a higher demand for HD movies.

Right now, I am not even bought into the idea to watching movies in 1080p, when I have to spend $3000+. I have a 720p 50" plasma and it is well worth the 720p. To the next level, not a big enough difference.

Answer 3

no