China and oil?

Question

I have been trying to think of a reason China would start a war, for a book i am writing. I am reading a book that deals with Saudia Arabia suddendly losing due to a earthquake a major terminal for oil.

And it goes slightly into the ramifications world wide.

Now from what ive heard over the years, China imports some 75% (i think) of its natural resources. Its a major MAJOR importer of oil (dont know if they have any oil fields).

To its north -north west there are the Siberian oil fields, not all are tapped. Some also are in Kazikstan, Ajerbajan, Georgia, and the Caspian Sea.

Lets say for a second a disaster (or war) takes place in the Middle East and all imports were stopped. I know that would hurt the US, and a lot of the world. Europe i hear imports some from there but a lot from the North Sea.

I hear Asia would be the worst hit (Japan is a good example).

So if China was suddendly faced with a lack of oil and no end in site for this problem, and decided a military

action was most needed,

where would they hit? they have the biggest army (in numbers) on earth.

they could attack anywehre in Asia with ease.

or would they try over seas?

please give me your oppinons.

i'm not arguing with you,

but i reemmber a study a few years ago on China's Military

if the whole world (except china) put their militaries, their reserves, their militias on one side of the line...... And china did all their possible troops (some 650 mil) on the other.

we'd be outnumbered.

Answer 1

well China's military is stronger than in the past, but numbers make no real difference in modern wars,,,and the stat that they'd outnumber the rest of the world is simply wrong. go to globalsecurity for info. India's army is also huge, Russia, US. Just those 3 are way bigger than China's

If this kind of "end of the oil" scenario happened. Any/Every country might have to fight for resources. But China can pay for its oil, it can and does offer nations like Iran/Sudan lots of guns/money/and other tech in return for good oil supply

China is much more authoritarian and could just refuse to let drivers buy oil except for necessary industries

Answer 2

China doesn't come close to the USA in weapons. They are currently the second largest spender on the Military in the world right now however behind the USA. Russia would support China with Oil. In fact Russia is playing that game that they still have an important role in the world, by talking about their Oil. SO CHina would get Oil from Russia. The USA would not hurt if import oil stopped. We have so much oil in reserve, and untapped. Think about why we are not tapping into it. Saving it for a rainy day my friend.

As for War. China doesn't have the means to launch an attack. There is no doubt they could defend themselves. But their Air Force is outdated as well as their Navy. Plus, Experience is everyting. the USA has tons of experience fighting a war both good and bad experiences which we do learn from.

China would Start a war for Political status to be an elite player in the world and claim their fame they are the new superpower. It won't happen "Soley" because of Oil, but Oil will play a part. Keep reading I'll explain.. Because of their support for Arab countries. Which we will eventually go to war with. ( You'll Have to read the Bible: Revalations and have someone translate it for you so you understand the Geographics of the war that's to happen). It spells out how Russia will aid the Mid-east to defeat Israel with the help of a 2 billion man army. How do you get that many people. BY enrolling China into the fight. China will support Russia. Why you ask. Because thats where they get their oil. Ahhh. We just went full circle.

Answer 3

I don't think you know enough about chinese foreign politics to be writing a book on it. China has no oil line into its country. Its method for attaining middle eastern oil is through the taiwanese and malaccan straits. This seems fine right? But Taiwan and India (the country on the coast of the malaccan strait) lay claim to those straits. furthermore, the world's hegemon, the united states has a vested interest in both india and taiwan. China might seek naval force to acquire the oil that they need to continue growing, but I doubt that they will. China has a symbiotic relationship with the united states, one which is asymetrical. If the united states were to leave china high and dry the u.s. would face recession and stagflation--a minor nuisance. But china would face revolution. China is too interdependent to seek military intervention because it is a power that is incapable of producing the goods its imports (not just oil but actual goods), unlike the other developed countries.

Let us look at the statistics for China fighting the U.S. The PLA is a motley crew, it relies on quantity over quality. It has outdated equipment, no real training regimine and no real experiencd generals. The united states however is the single most continuously active country in military interventions since WWII. It has experienced personnel, top of the line arms, the best technology. Plus it spends more on national defense than the next 8 other developed countries combined. In the world there are 13 nuclear naval squadrons. The U.S. has 8 of them. The U.S. is not just the most powerful country, rather it has a preponderance of force over every other country.

however, it should be noted that even if China does not grow to match U.S. military might they still can effect the security dilemma by gaining power in U.S. spheres of influence. I.e. threatening India or Taiwan. But again fear of U.S. repercussions won't allow this.

Some believe in nuclear deterrence, that war won't happen because of mutually assured destruction. This is foolish. The past has already shown potential for proxy wars and tactical combat.

Answer 4

The scenario you describe is a bleak one.
No doubt all importing nations would be affected by a complete loss of exports. This would be a world-wide disaster. I would think it becomes pure fiction, as such a complete stoppage would not be possible. The African , American, Canadian, and South American oil supplies would not be affected by a Middle Eastern conflict, and vice versa. But any large interruption would place the East and West in such a bind that the resulting turmoil may, and I hope I am not being overly optimistic, create new alliances to correct the disruption. Any agressive move by one block or another would create another world war, and much like the concept of mutual assured distruction prevented the cold war from heating up, perhaps the dire consequences of a world-wide conflict over oil might force a diplomatic solution to the catastrophe.
One could hope....

Answer 5

China military is not as strong as ours. However they managed to steal some of our technology. They showed this new advanced ship and our military was terrified how much they stole. Yes its horrible that china is building there economy on oil. Chinas best bet would be to go into the middle east. Since Iraq and Saudi Arabia would be under our control and protection. Iran would make the logical choice. Also they could say there doing it to fight terrorism. USA would not oppose this. Maybe in talk but never in action.

Answer 6

China is nobody. Numbers don't mean anything. Its technology that wins wars. Now who do you think has the technology and the money.

Answer 7

china has an army of 2.25 million, not 650 million, that is just absolutely preposterous.