how to convert qualitative conclusion into a quantitative volumn when making the revenue forecast?

Question

For example,a vast majority of partners show strong confidence to a new product in the inner communicating meeting,but how do I make a quantitative revenue forecast based on the partners’ attitude?

Answer 1

This is a common problem and you're the unfortunate "stuckee" for a solution. An approach I've used in the past (and it's actually worked from time to time):

1. Assume 20 partners, 16 show strong confidence in the product, 2 are neutral, 2 are pessimistic. This translates into a 70% probability of better-than-average success for the new product.

2. Historically, average success for similar products Year1=$X, Year 2=$Y, etc. Best success for a similar product Year 1=$X plus 50%, Year 2=$Y plus 40%.

3. Thus, forecast Year1=$X plus 35%, Year 2=$Y plus 28%.

4. Float this number past the partners citing the methodology used, and wait about 13 seconds. You will get 15 phone calls all at once (one of the partners is out to lunch) cautioning you to use more conservative numbers.

5. Then put out your REAL forecast, which is $X in Year 1 and $Y in Year 2. You can save yourself some time by writing up this forecast now because there is a 98.21336% probability that it's the only one the partners will be willing to live with.

Answer 2

Before collecting data of qualitative nature,rating scale with 0 to10 points may be applied.For example if the question is ,is this colour (shape,design,appearance,preference)is good for you? If the answer is yes or no such data can not useful for right decision.If we get the answers in the scale of 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 we can convert the opinion in to quantifiable figures and draw logical conclusions.