Will US military suffer a "Dien Bien Phu" type of defeat in Iraq?

Question

In May 1954, Vietnamese Communist Forces overran the French military garrison at Dien Bien Phu, capturing 14,000 French troops, and forcing the French to end their presence in Indochina. Is this the possible fate of US troops in the "Green Zone" and the remainder of Iraq?

Answer 1

The question doesn't work becaues the scale (and terrain) does not come close to matching.

1. 'Dien Bien Phu (DBP)' was an isolated french base in a remote part of the country, limiting their chance of reinforcement from the beginning.
The Green Zone is in the heart of Baghdad, in the center of Iraq, there are a number of HUGE military bases within 20 miles of the Green Zone, a few minutes' flying time. Heck,if things got bad, they could get help from the Tigris River Which flows right next to it!!

2. DBP was situated in a valley, and the Viet Minh got on the high ground (Ho Chi Minh described it as 'a rice bowl' with the French at the bottom) pounding the base to pieces.
Most of Iraq, to include Baghdad, is flat as a pan. No high ground to speak of.

3. DBP was an interim base, an airstrip and basic fortifications.
The GZ was buit by Saddam, designed from the ground up to be defended in case of revolution, protected by reinforced walls and built-in bunkers.

4. The fact is, the reason the the insurgency started using IED's was every time they came in the open to attack, they got hammered.
In the end the GZ only too small a target for that kind of exposure, and to lay seige to one of the other bases in the area, they would be in the open, unlike the jungle cover used by the Viet Minh.

Answer 2

No. The Vietnamese force was a large, well organized, unified, and well equipped force. They had good logistical support and heavy weapons at their disposal. Also, the terrian in Vietnam favored the attackers in terms of cover and concealment.

The Iraqi insurgency on the other hand is small (compared to the Vietnamese force), disorganized, factious and poorly equipped. The terrian provides little cover from the air suppor the US and Coalition forces can bring to bear. They are limited to small arm, with no artillary to speak of outside of small calibar mortars. There is not a single insurgency group, rather there are many independant groups. Most of these groups distrust each other as any forigen party, making it impossible to bring the numbers needed for such a large scale assault.

Additionaly many of the insurgents are poorly trained. True there are formal military personal mixed in with them. However those with any combat experiance other than the first Gult War will be veterans from either the Iran/Iraq war or the fighting against the Soviets in Afghanistan. This would lean their experiance towards hit-and-run style raids in the case of the Afghani veterans. Those with experiance in the Iran/Iraq war could be veterans of much larger scale operations. However, these battles were done against simillarly equipped and trained soldiers. The US and British solders have much better training and equipment than anything the insurgency has used.

All of that aside, the simple fact is that the insurgents in the region do have the large logistical support needed for the type of operation you describe.

Answer 3

Dien Bien Phu was a siege. The U.S. is still more or less on open ground. You won't be able to dismantle the empire and pull out honorably without a full scale rising - like the English did nor like the French in Indochina. I do see it, though, more as the French having to quit Algeria.

Answer 4

Nope US Military is too well trained and equipped for that. Plus we can get reinforcements where needed too quickly. Couple that with our close air support and armor, and battlefield sized nuclear weapons they would never get close.
The French at Dien Bien Phu did not have the close air support our Marine and Navy pilots, those jocks come in so low they'll have K-Bars tied to their landing gear, can give the troops on the ground. Their supply lines were also cut so everything had to be air dropped in and they did not have capacity to maintain supplies and reinforcements by air like the U.S. Military does.

The NVA tried to make Khe Shan another Dien Bien Bhu during the Vietnam war. But it failed because of the close air support the Marines got and the ability of the American Air Force, Navy and Marine C-130 jocks to keep Khe shan supplied and reinforced by air.

Answer 5

No for DBP was a valley and the french let the Vietnamese take the high ground.

Probably closer to a Da Nang

Answer 6

Probobaly yes, and to a previous answer the insurgents and associated people are VERY well equiped and organized, more so than the pathetic iraqi "millitary" we are setting up, and whoever disses the french should move to iraq, because they are the reason the U.S. won the revolutionary war.

Answer 7

Not only was that a different war, it was a different type of war. Giap had conventional forces arrayed against the Legion Etranger. We know what happens when conventional forces try to fight the U.S. The strategy in Iraq as regards trying to force the removal of U.S. forces is the same as that Giap later used against the U.S.; make it long and difficult, and out-wait American public support.

Answer 8

no way dude, we have nothing in common with the french, shame on you for even making that analogy
Our soldiers are brave men and women, not a bunch of pansies like the french.

Answer 9

Only if John FRENCH Kerry gets elected President.

Answer 10

lol...I wouldn't even think of it...but if it did, our guys would have a lot of bodies of the bad guys to step over...or drive over, same thing.