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There are some 432,536 asteroids at the latest count. Less than 5,000 of these are Near Earth Objects i.e. come inside the orbit of Mars.

The two you may have heard about are 99942 Apophis (320 metres in diameter) and 29075 1950 DA (1.1 - 1.4 kilometres in diameter).

1950 DA

29075 1950 DA is the Near Earth Object with the highest known possible probability of impacting Earth, according to the Palermo Technical Impact Hazard Scale. For a few days in December 2004 it was temporarily surpassed by 99942 Apophis (which at the time was named only by its provisional designation 2004 MN4).

If 1950 DA continues on its present orbit, it will approach near to the Earth on March 16, 2880. Over the intervening time, the rotation of the asteroid will cause its orbit to change (by the Yarkovsky effect). (See second link.)

A preliminary analysis shows two possible pole directions (Giorgini, et al., 2002 "Asteroid 1950 DA's 2880 Encounter with Earth"). One trajectory misses the Earth by tens of millions of kilometers, while the other has an impact probability of 1⁄300. The radar observations are currently being reanalyzed, in combination with the optical lightcurves.

The energy released by a collision with an object the size of 1950 DA would cause major effects on the climate and biosphere which would be devastating to human civilization.

The discovery of the potential impact has heightened interest in asteroid deflection strategies. (See third link.)

Despite the fatalism of one contributor above, there is plenty that could be done about avoiding an impact, especially with over 800 years notice of one!

APOPHIS

In July 2005, former Apollo astronaut Rusty Schweickart formally asked NASA to investigate the possibility that the asteroid's post-2029 orbit could be in orbital resonance with the Earth, which would increase the probability of future impacts. Schweickart asked for an investigation of the necessity of placing a transponder on the asteroid for more accurate tracking of how its orbit is affected by the Yarkovsky effect.

If this project were undertaken, we would have a spy in the sky to tell us of any impending problems. This is just one example of how mankind can intervene in its own destiny.

DISCOVERY AND NAMING

Apophis was discovered on June 19, 2004, by Roy A. Tucker, David J. Tholen, and Fabrizio Bernardi of the NASA-funded University of Hawaii Asteroid Survey from Kitt Peak National Observatory in Arizona. This group observed for two nights. The new object received the provisional designation 2004 MN4.

On December 18, the object was rediscovered from Australia by Gordon Garradd of the Siding Spring Survey, another NASA-funded NEA survey. Further observations from around the globe over the next several days allowed the Minor Planet Center to confirm the connection to the June discovery.

When first discovered, the object received the provisional designation 2004 MN4 and news and scientific articles about it referred to it by that name. When its orbit was sufficiently well calculated it received the permanent number 99942 (on June 24, 2005). Receiving a permanent number made it eligible for naming, and it promptly received the name "Apophis" as of July 19, 2005. Apophis is the Greek name of the Ancient Egyptian god Apep, "the Destroyer", who dwells in the eternal darkness of the Duat (underworld) and tries to destroy the Sun during its nightly passage.

POSSIBLE IMPACTS

Apophis has an orbital period of 323.6 earth days and crosses our orbit twice a year. Only a minority of its approaches will find us at a point of our orbit where an impact may occur.

The 2029 approach was thought at first to be potentially hazardous, but further observations ruled that out. Then an impact in 2035 was considered a possibility and further observations then ruled that out, too.

On August 5, 2006, Apophis was lowered to a Level 0 Torino impact hazard scale. As of October 19, 2006 the impact probability for April 13, 2036 is estimated at 1 in 45,000. An additional impact date in 2037 has been identified, however the impact probability for that encounter is 1 in 12.3 million.

Not worth losing much sleep over.

POSSIBLE IMPACT EFFECTS

Wikipedia sums uo the current position as follows:

"It must be stressed that the odds of impact are now known to be very low. Hence, the possible effects of an impact are largely irrelevant.

However, the initial reports resulted in widespread discussion on many Internet forums, including armchair speculation about exactly where Apophis (then known only as 2004 MN4) would hit and what would happen when it did.

NASA initially estimated the energy that Apophis would have released if it impacted Earth as the equivalent of 1480 megatons of TNT. A more refined later NASA estimate was 880 megatons. The impacts which created the Barringer Crater or caused the Tunguska event are estimated to be in the 10-20 megaton range. The 1883 eruption of Krakatoa was the equivalent of roughly 200 megatons.

The exact effects of any impact would have varied based on the asteroid's composition, and the location and angle of impact. Any impact would have been extremely detrimental to an area of thousands of square kilometres, but would have been unlikely to have long-lasting global effects, such as the initiation of an impact winter."

2006-11-19 02:30:17 · answer #1 · answered by Anonymous · 9 0

Yes, sometimes ago last year there was a larger asteroid which was said to be heading to Earth (said scientists) and they are studying ways to stop it reach and hit our planet. One of them was to make the large asteroid explode in pieces in space before it reaches Earth. But apparently the course of this asteroid deviated and went past earth by a distance greater than the distance to our moon.
This is what I knew at the time. Large asteroids are just random and cannot be predicted. It might or yet might not hit in our generation. So everything is as usual.

2006-11-19 06:03:08 · answer #2 · answered by Nicolette 6 · 0 0

Yes. How did you find out about this. I thought it was top secret. Government is trying to cover it up. I heard it was due to hit us on 24 Nov at 11.45. I have started stockpiling.

M

2006-11-19 06:43:20 · answer #3 · answered by nickywc 2 · 0 0

isn't there always an asteroid heading for earth......

2006-11-19 01:38:31 · answer #4 · answered by Anonymous · 0 0

How can anyone be sure that it is heading towards us. Perhaps we are heading towards it. Whats our point of reference here?

2006-11-19 01:43:18 · answer #5 · answered by teddie8362 2 · 0 0

If there is you'll know when it gets here - all the politicians will be leaving.

2006-11-19 01:48:12 · answer #6 · answered by rusty b 2 · 1 0

Don't worry, NASA's keeping an eye on them all!

2006-11-21 09:44:25 · answer #7 · answered by Whoosher 5 · 0 0

So what there is nothing you can do to stop it anyway, I think it is best to not know it is coming.

2006-11-19 01:46:22 · answer #8 · answered by norsmen 5 · 0 1

YES ! RUN ! DIG A HOLE and BURY urself in it

2006-11-19 01:40:28 · answer #9 · answered by T C 3 · 0 2

yes!!! we are alll going to die!!!!!


*wont anyone think of the children!!!"

2006-11-19 01:43:45 · answer #10 · answered by Anonymous · 0 2

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