What chance does the A380 have of being a commercial success in view of all the delays and bad publicity ?

Answer 1

I don't think it will matter. The size of the plane has captured peoples imagination and once it becomes available people will want to experience just what it is like to fly in something that big. It will still be a success.

Answer 2

At this point Airbus will be lucky to break-even!

The many and continued delays with the A380 have already caused Airbus to loose several billion Euros, and this does not take into consideration the money it lost with the failed A350 first design. The A380 delays will only make the new A350XWB loose more money and enter the market later on.

The A400 military transport is also in danger of losing money, in part because of the delays with the A380 program.

In all, the A380 is much like Concorde in that the aircraft was only possible because of the monetary support form European governments, especially France, without this money, A380 may never enter service. Airbus need not repay the "loans" it gets from goverments in Europe if the program does not make a profit, this is highly unfair.

Lets not forget that the A380 wing did not meet its target load in destructive fail testing, reinforcements are now being incorporated, but a new fail test is NOT schedulled, will the wings be able to take the load of real-world turbulent flight? Who knows!

The 747 program was also delayed, but only a few months to a year, A380 is now 2 years late (at least), and it represents a smaller leap in technology now than the 747 did when introduced.

Answer 3

Pat Aint No Chef doesn't know what he's talking about.

The others said it prettly good. Any new airliner has problems, especially one that is larger and more complex than anything in its class.

To compare the A380 to the Concord is foolish. The Concorde was designed for the rich and had a very low sales before production. The A380 has sales to back production and is designed for for low operating costs and low fares. Yeah the direct operating costs are high, but that is more that offset by the HUGE payload it can carry. The A380 has a better per person fuel economy than a Smart Car, and goes ten times as fast.

But markets are changing so who knows, wait and see.

Answer 4

It will be huge commercial success until one crashes due to a mechanical failiure, most likely a piece of the tail falling off. An airbus has already crashed over New York due to the tail fin falling off just because the pilot had to make a sudden manoeuver to get out of trouble. The problem is that many key parts such as the tail fin are made of carbon fibre. This stuff is ultra strong and light when everything in its manufacturing process has been done PERFECTLY. If there's a flaw in the material you won't get any tell tail cracks or stress marks like you will with metal which can spotted by inspection. With carbon fibre the piece just fails catastrophically, instantly. The same thing was happening to rear downforce wings on Formula 1 cars a couple of seasons ago. They are only small sections of carbon fibre which no doubt went through scrupulous inspection throughout manufacture and yet still failed. Also, if you saw the Discovery program on the building the new Airbus, you won't have been impressed. I particularly didn't care much for the inability of the undercarriage to lower without a problem in the event an emergency, their attitude was not to redesign it to be foolproof, but just to slap enough grease on to make it pass the ground test. I don't want to fly on any airbus.

Answer 5

I really think is has little/no chance if being a real commercial success. The tickets will cost so much that no one will be able to afford to fly. It's kind of like the Concorde. It was an amazing plane, but only the wealthy could afford a ticket. I believe the A380 will be a better asset as a cargo plane.

Answer 6

It has as much of a chance as most other airliners have had...successful or unsuccessful.

Boeing had as many, if not more problems with the 747 when it first came out...and some people and airport operators had doubts as to its viability.

The 737 also was practically a dud for the first 15 years of it existence (1967.) It has since become the best selling jetliner in history.

My big gripe about the A380 is that it's butt-ugly. Number-crunchers though, tend to look beyond such things.

Answer 7

Airbus 380 will be a market success in its class size because there' no other equivalent competitor. Boeing 747-8's latest stretch only seats up to 476 in standard 3-class configuration.

However, at this stage, I think it is like the "21st century Concorde" but for different reason

Almost all types of new airplane will encounter delays at certain degree, but the magnitude of this A380 delay is just beyond incredible, and too ridiculous. In fact, in a published schedule diagram of the A3XX project back then, this super jumbo is supposed to be in its 2nd or 3rd year of commercial service (in 2006).

Based on various news source, the problem is actually not the plane itself but rather the management problem. If you follow closely as amateur, you'll noticed the current issue at Airbus relating to the A380 is not how to fix the wiring problem, but rather who should own more shares at EADS and who shouldn't. Both sides are playing blaming game which does not help to solve the main technical problem.

When it comes to airplane ticket, the A380 will lower the fare down dramatically (except First/Business Class). For airlines like Emirates ordering 45 (but somehow spreading conflicting report it may be cancelling half of them but later say this wasn't the option) is going to flood the market to create even greater competition, especially on the Kangaroo route. (airlines like Singapore now have 19 on order, QANTAS at 12, 6 for Virgin) The main deal is, you need to lower the fare in order to fill at least the entire plane. But whether that guarantees a profit, that is currently up in the air for everyone to decide.

Calnickel said "The Concorde was designed for the rich and had a very low sales before production." *****this wasn't the case at all because, Concorde was in fact, received a healthy order (See list below) like A380 did before all the problems surfaced.

The crisis has endangered the newly-revamped Airbus 350XWB, which rumour now calling delivery of 2014 instead of mid-2012. A400military is affected, A320E as well as trial for A320 new winglets is also in question.

Whether this aircraft will become a true success, time will tell, probably 2016?

When it comes to A380Freighter, perhaps you could say it's ende dup being a failure because:
1)Emirates, which ordered 2, cancelled them and order 10 747-8Freighter, with another 10 as option
2)"brown-coloured airline", 6~8 747-400Fs earlier this year, created suspecion that it could ended up cancelling A380F. No news on the "purple tail" airline because they've been quiet for now.

Answer 8

Rammo concorde failed as a commercial success because it was too damn expensive to fly her, the A380 will succeed, Airbus will get over the challenges and be okay. I reckon Airlines like Oais Air in Hong Kong will perhaps buy/lease the A380 as the new low cost long haul service will demand it, $300 dollars round trip from Heathrow to Hong Kong is just damn fabulous Pal. Everyone will want to go now.

Answer 9

Like someone already said....it has captured people's imagination, and so we will want to experience flying on something so incredibly big..

But, I do believe it is going to be a success as it might actually be more fuel efficient to fly two full decks of passengers on a more modern plane, then the common 1.3 decks the 747-400 uses (and due to efficiencies the newer technology of the A380 is likely to have). Fuel efficiency is going to continue to play an important role for the bean counters and for good reason. Have you seen the cost of fuelling a 747????

Anyway, the downside of an aircraft potentially holding 800 passenger is.....imagine 3 or 4 of them landing simultaneously at any already busy airport....the queues are going to be terrible for baggage reclaim & immigration!!!!

Oh no...

Answer 10

Unlikely to succeed. It's size requires too many improvements to airports before they can accept the A380.

I'm glad Europeans are paying the bills for its design. I hope the people of France don't mind spending a billion Euros for a plane that doesn't work for air carriers.

Passengers are buying more non-stop tickets than hub-spoke tickets. The market won't develop for the super-sized plane.

Answer 11

It has the same fate of Concorde. If you are not prepared well, the trust will go. getting back that trust is difficult. Concorde failed as it was ahead of time. A380 ahead in publicity. You have to meet the expectations of the world to be successful now.