The World is going to end December 24th, 2012?!?

Question

I have heard from numerous sources that the world is going to en December 24th, 2012.

It is said because two different calendars have, for thousands of years, predicted asteroids, meteor showers and other phenomena, but the cause of the world ending is supposedly going to be caused by a colossal asteroid hitting earth. Might it cause another ice-age, or will it cause the world to end completely?

I don't necessarily agree with this theory, but what are your thoughts upon the matter?

Answer 1

I prefer to trust current scientific observation and calculation than unnamed calendars which are thousands of years old, concerning which unspecified and unsubstantiated claims are made. Science rather than superstition.

Referring to an object as "colossal" is not exactly a clear statement of its size which would enable a risk assessment to be made and strongly suggests this is rumour and tittle-tattle and no particular asteroid has been named as the prime suspect in the case.

The Colossus of Rhodes (a giant statue of the god Helios, erected on the Greek island of Rhodes in 292 BC and one of the Seven Wonders of the Ancient World) was roughly the same size as the Statue of Liberty. Which is 151 feet tall (46 metres).

The minimum size for an object to be classified as an asteroid is 50 metres in diameter. So anything that is literally "Colossal" in size isn't even big enough to be an asteroid. Only asteroids of 1 kilometre in size pose a significant threat to life on earth and that is 20 times the diameter of "Colossal" and 8000 times the volume of "Colossal".

So what's the panic?

Asteroids and comets which periodically pass near earth are called Near Earth Objects (NEOs)

Number of near-earth objects
As of August 31, 2006, 4,187 NEO's have been discovered: 57 near-Earth comets and 4,130 near-Earth asteroids. Of those there are 330 Aten asteroids, 1,613 Amor asteroids, and 2,181 Apollo asteroids. There are 792 NEO's which are classified as potentially hazardous asteroids.

Estimating the risks
There are two schemes for classification of impact hazards:

the simple Torino Scale
and the more complex Palermo Technical Impact Hazard Scale

On 25 December 2004, minor planet 2004 MN4 (now known as 99942 Apophis) was assigned a 4 on the Torino scale, the highest rating so far. At 27 December 2004 there was a 2.7% chance of Earth impact on the 13 April 2029.

However, on 28 December 2004, the risk of impact dropped to zero for 2029, but, due to a resonant return possibility the Torino rating for an April 2036 impact rose to 4 in early 2005 and, as of August 2006, has dropped gradually to a Torino rating of 0 (zero). The Palermo rating (August 2006) is −2.25.

Currently, the only known NEO with a Palermo scale value greater than zero is (29075) 1950 DA, which is predicted to pass very close to or collide with the Earth (p≤0.003) in the year 2880. If this collision were to happen, the energy released by a collision with (29075) 1950 DA would cause an extinction event which would destroy most life on the planet. However, humanity has over 800 years to refine its estimates of the orbit of (29075) 1950 DA, and to deflect it if necessary.

NASA maintains a continuously updated web page (see link) of the most significant NEO threats in the next 100 years - all or nearly all of which are highly likely to drop off the list eventually as more data comes in enabling more accurate predictions; however, that page does not, of course, include 1950 DA, because that will not strike for at least 800 years.

So if NASA has not got a named NEO with an impact possibility of Dec 24 2012, and a positive high impact risk assessment attached to it, do we need to lose any sleep over this?

Whatever Nostradamus and Old Moore's Almanac and their ilk may say...

AFTERTHOUGHT

But for those with a paranoid disposition, you may find it reassuring to know that the astronomical community, world-wide is on the case:

In the United States, NASA has a congressional mandate to catalogue all NEOs that are at least 1 kilometer (0.6 miles) wide. At this size and larger, an impacting NEO would cause catastrophic local damage and significant to severe global consequences.

The United States, European Union and other nations are currently scanning for NEOs in an effort called Spaceguard. Currently efforts are under way to use an existing telescope in Australia to cover the ~30% of the sky that is not currently surveyed.

Answer 2

This Site Might Help You.

RE:
The World is going to end December 24th, 2012?!?
I have heard from numerous sources that the world is going to en December 24th, 2012.

It is said because two different calendars have, for thousands of years, predicted asteroids, meteor showers and other phenomena, but the cause of the world ending is supposedly going to be caused by a colossal...

Answer 3

IF a giant asteroid was to hit the earth, it would probably depend on the force of the impact whether it would "only" cause another ice age, or destroy the earth entirely .... so you can't say for sure what the effects would be ...

apart from that, I don't think anyone can predict the end of the world anyway - it's a sure thing it will come to an end someday, either because of an asteroid, or of the sun becoming bigger and either getting too hot for life to be possible on earth or simply engulfing one by one Mercury, Venus and the Earth .... OR because of pollution and the ozone layer disappearing (which is for me the most probable one) ... or any of the many other possibilities ....

anyway, whichever one it is, you can't really predict the exact day the world will end, and even more, you can't do anything to prevent it, or a least to save yourself - so stop worrying, it won't help anyway!

Answer 4

How anyone can believe that a civilisation at its peak thousands of years ago that did not even know of the existence of asteroids (nobody knew of their existence till 1801 when 1 Ceres was discovered) with limited technnical equipment and limited understanding of the Solar System, and no knowledge of Kepler's Laws of planetary motion could possily foresee that an asteroid collision with earth would occur, thousands of years later and name the precise date rather eludes me, I am afraid...

It is as preposterous as Bishop Ussher claiming that the world began at nightfall before 23rd October 4004 BC

It should be obvious that contemporary New Age thinkers have grafted on the asteroid collision part of the prediction to whatever the Mayans actually said, and impressionable people have then swallowed the whole concocted story as though every word of it was true because it was allegedly thousands of years old, (as if that gave it credence!),

A bit like fabricating the evidence for Piltdown Man. The intervention of the modern hand is disguised so as to make the story credible.

I am frankly surprised anyone gives this story the time of the day,

Answer 5

Several years ago I had also heard that the world was going to end in 2012 though I'm not sure it was the same date. The prediction was that the earth would finally take revenge on what humans have done.

Like you I don't necessarily agree with this prediction but thought it was rather interesting. All I know is there's not much I personally can do about it.

Answer 6

This is from an ancient Mayan or Aztec belief... and though I am not trying to question the truth of anyone's religion, according to several religions the world is going to end on several varying dates, so why pick this one?...according to certain Christians (more than one sect,) the world was to end on May 5, 2005! Well, the world still looks pretty good to me. ;) Honestly, stop making yourself paranoid if such speculations frighten you by avoiding all "armageddon" materials such as "end of the world" documentaries or books. These stories are meant to titillate and frighten you just as a scary movie would, and the fact that they are based on one or 2 cultures' mythology and then greatly exaggerated should not make you afraid that they are true stories. I can think of at least 8 different "end dates" for the world according to various religions for this year alone.

Answer 7

It's the Mayan calender December 21-23. But it represents the beginning of the 4th age not the end of the world. But who knows maybe.

Answer 8

I'm going to bet everything I own that it won't end on that date. Any takers? :)

For those of you who are saying that the Mayan calender "predicts" the end of the world in 2012 you are not correct. I know there are a lot of BS sites on the Internet that say this, but it is simply not true, the Mayan calender is actually 3 calendars that run in cycles. To say that the Mayan calender will run out of days in 2012 is like suggesting that our calender will run out of days.

The ending of a cycle was a big event, marked by dedicating new buildings, religious ceremonies, sacrifices and so on, to appease the Gods and convince them to allow the world to continue. When one cycle ends a new one starts there was never one specific end date in the Mayan Calender.

Answer 9

I would not worry untill Dec 24th 11:59 pm. that type of prophesy has gone on since man began to think. Look at the year 2000. Everyone was talking about how it would be the end of the world.. Only bad thing that happened was that Bush was still in office... lol...

Why worry?

Answer 10

That is just the last day that the Mayans calculated on their calendar, not the end of the world. Their calendar had cycles of so many years before it started over. That date is just the end of the current cycle, at the winter solstice. A new cycle starts after this one, but the Mayan culture died out before they got around to recording it.

Answer 11

well watever
one or the other day it will end
i don't mind if its today or tomorrow or on 24th dec 2012
when i die obviously for me its the end of the world
thats what i can say