Does climate change actually exist?

Question

Given the fact that there have been changes to way the worlds weather has been over recent years in terms of flooding, storms, mud slides etc. Is this really to do with the carbon emmissions that we have been increasing over the years or is it due to the natural cycle of the Earth? Afterall we are around 11,000 years overdue for an iceace that has happened almost every 11,000 years like clockwork!

I do work within the renewables industry and I do know that carbon emmissions are bad. We should do all we can to reduce and stop what we produce but is it the sole cause of the climate change we are experiencing?

Sorry my bad - tied myself in knots!

What I meant was - Climate change exists. Are we the cause with carbon emmissions or is it a natural process of the earth (i.e. the start of an iceage)

Answer 1

The truth is - we just don't know.

All we *do* know is that...

A) Carbon dioxide levels have risen by about a third over the last 100 years and human activity is the likely cause, and

B) Average global temperatures have risen by about 0.6 degrees Celsius over the same period.

Despite what a lot of people are saying, there is no conclusive proof that the former is causing the latter.

Environmentalists are forever producing "computer models" that show what the climate would be like if we remove the affects of the increases in CO2. But these are simply weather models just like the ones they use to tell you if it's going to be sunny or raining tomorrow. Do you believe what *they* tell you. You probably do for tomorrow, but what about the next day? What about next week? Next year? Not a chance! But we're expected to believe what these models say the weather will be doing in 100 years!

What we need to do is watch these models for the next 10 or better yet, 20 years, feed in the data on how CO2 levels are changing (but importantly, don't allow the programmers to "massage" the software in any way). If in 20 years they are still giving results that accurately reflect what is happening in the real world, then we should accept that they are useful for predicting what will happen in the future.

Sadly, I believe that, over time, the predictions of these models will become more and more inaccurate until they are wildly off the mark. This would show that they are *not* giving an accurate picture of what is happening and their data should be ignored.

Remember, scientists once told us that the Earth was at the centre of the universe. They *can* be wrong, you know! And besides, despite what some people might want you to believe (for example, Bob, above with his quote "The overwhelming consensus is ..." It would be more accurate to say "The noisiest consensus is..."), there are plenty of scientists out there that *don't* believe that mankind is causing global warming. Their voices tend to get drowned out by the clamouring of the scare-mongerers, but they *are* out there.

Until we know for sure, should we start spending billions of pounds a year on sorting out a problem that may not be real?

Answer 2

of course it exists, you just stated as much. Research suggests that the current rate of climate change is man made however, because it is far greater than at any time in the past million years. Under natural circumsatnces the temperature should increase by about 0.5oC every 100 years, however at the moment it is set to increase by anywhere between 2 and 5oC. Almost all scientists now believe that we are having an effect on the climate, the only question left is how much? and can we stop the change? or do we just have to accept it and adapt?. Its not like the planet has never been this warm before, so it doesn't mean the end of the world, just a slight change to it. So relax, don't listen to the news channels because they hype it up out of all proportion

Answer 3

Hiya!

aren't you answering your own question? You say we are due for an ice age, yet the earth is heating-up... should it not be the other way 'round? The fact that this is happening exatly when we should be experiencing a global COOLING, suggests that something unusual is happening.

What evidence do we have for the anthropogenic nature of the causes?

There are some studies of the indirect evidence from ice-cores and it can be refined, for climate variations over the past 1000 years, using various analyses of the ligneous tissue and tree-ring thickness in redwoods, then look for correlations.

If we observe the same "hockey stick" graph, then we know we have previous, sudden and extreme warming.

IF we also find volcanic/meteoric ash and gases inthe ice cores, associated with these sudden warmer periods, then this could suggest volcanic/tectonic episodes, which can be excluded as a current factor and only leaves us. Else, it has happened before and could be a function of Gaia's "physiology".

Check out the NASA and Real Climate websites below, I hope you'll find them useful.

Answer 4

The ice age every 11,000 years sounds like the theory from the 70s, when there were some cool years so people thought an ice age was coming. Even then, global warming due to CO2 was known and thought to be something that would save us from the ice age for a while. Now the extra CO2 from humans is thought to be the most important factor, and a Russian scientist wants to postpone Kyoto for a while because he thinks a cool period is coming. CO2 is not the sole cause, and natural cycles are not the sole cause. According to those two theories, warming would be the net result of: Warming due to CO2 - cooling due to the natural cooling cycle = some warming. If you are saying the cooling cycle is broken (and it seems heating is going a bit faster than scientists expected from CO2 alone) all the more reason to crack down double hard on CO2 emissions.

Answer 5

Scientists have spent a lot of time sorting out the various causes of climate change. They have considered the natural processes that everyone against global warming brings up. And some global warming, due to water vapor, is a natural feature of the earth.

The overwhelming consensus is that man produced climate change is present now, and is going to get bad (coastal flooding, drastically changed agriculture patterns) if we don't do something. Basically it will become too much for how our coastal cities are built and how our farms are run. That will cost us more than fixing the problem.

Answer 6

Climate change is definitely happening. It's true that the Earth has exhibited cycles of variable weather over time, since much earlier than the Industrial Revolution. As a result, it's hard to be sure how much of current global warming is due to human factors, and how much is natural. But CO2 emissions and other human factors are certainly not helping.

Answer 7

Yes, climate change exists, but a change on the scale you're describing (fluctuating in and out of ice ages) takes place over such a long period of time we couldn't notice it within our lifetimes. You're probably right about carbon emissions influencing changes in our climate, but again, I don't think it's something we can immediately see the effects of. We're probably killing the earth for future generations.

Answer 8

Oh yes, it exists. It's the reasons for it that are shrouded in mystery. The mechanisms of both our planet and the sun are still not understood. After all, it only takes a dip in the sun's output by a small percentage and we're freezing again. Global temperatures are peaking, but they may well swing the other way.

Answer 9

On a geological time scale then climate change does go up and down so any climate change we experience now maybe just a natural process. however there is evidence to suggest that human activity has and still does impact the climate we have now.

Answer 10

You've answered your own question in all that babble. Of course climate change exists! You are questioning the cause of climate change which is impossible to determine.