What are the chances evolution would actually work?

Question

I.e.

The scientific odds of even one left-sided amino acid forming by chance is 10 to the 123rd power. In other words 1 chance in 10 followed by 123 zeros. i.e. 1 in
1,000,000,000
,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000
,000,000,000,000
,000,000,000,000
,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000
,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000
,000,000


http://www.exchangedlife.com/Creation/unexplai.htm

Someone explain to me the probability that evolution would ACTUALLY work.

This is just an example. The chances that over time evolution could happen are even less. I never said it was all about left side amino acids, I was using it as an example. Someone has yet to give me odds that it could actually happen, and without saying that it IS happening, that's not proof.

Answer 1

none - Mutation, yes, but not evolution according to Darwin's theory. This is so old - If humans evolved from apes, why are both still inhabiting this earth simultaneously without the continuing link walking amongst us as well?

Answer 2

The author of that website obviously doesn't have any clue about biology (or general science either). Good thing metabolic processes work on without any input from the human concerned, otherwise the author would long have died.
It is absolutely not by chance that all the amino acids are the L-isomeres, it's because the enzymes which make amino acids can only produce the L-amino acids. And the enzymes which produce the proteins tend to be pretty specific about which isomer they incorporate too.
On top of that you represented the already incorrect theory incorrectly.
Sorry, I am usually more polite, but I think that given your current lack of knowledge of science makes the probability that anybody could successfully explain to you how evolution works negligibly different from zero.

Answer 3

No, you're drinking the creationist kool-aid, and don't understand either genetics or probability.

Evolution works by taking advantage of past successes. There is a lot of evidence of genes becoming larger due to the duplication of smaller genes. In general, evolution works because successful changes don't revert back. Success accumulates.

The other thing you fail to take into account is the huge amount of time that has passed since the first self-replicating molecules formed, and the vast amount of raw materials spread over the earth. Even with very small probabilities, with that much time and space over which chance events occur, AND with the rule that that successful changes accumulates, then its not at all surprising that in 4 billion years on this planet that evolution produced the diversity of life that we see.

Answer 4

thats the beauty of random chance. there maybe a 1 in trillion chance that a simple amino acid is formed by a few nucliotides but there is still that chance. this doesnt say evolution is impossible, its like saying that u have one white marble in a huge bag full of red ones. just because the odds are against u doesnt mean that pulling that white marble out isnt going to happen. plus evolution isnt happening with just one organism at a time. take trillions of people and have them pull out a marble. the chance that someone is going to have the white marble is higher now. so even though the odds are against one amino acid forming, this was happening accross the globe over billions of years.

Answer 5

This is quoted from the below sourced website by Lucas Bachmann, in which he refutes the statements made by creationists in the article you are referring to:

Whoever wrote "Creation Facts" knows absolutely nothing at all
about chemistry.

"The smallest known living
organism has over 500 amino acids." (from your article)

Well 500 amino acids is the size of a decent sized
protien. I repeat a single protein. Does the
author of this page think a single protein counts as a life
form?
No doubt the author is attempting to refer to
the genome of Mycobacterium genetalium,
the smallest known with around 400 proteins.
Or 580,000 DNA bases.
So what?

" Scientist have found that all non-living amino acids
form with 50% of side atoms on the right side of the acid and 50% on the
left. " (from your article)

Left and Right refer to Levorotatory and Dextrorotatory and they
refer to how the molecule rotates polarized light.
l-amino acids rotate light counter clockwise.
COO-
|
+H2N-C-H Glycine (where the left and right side?)
|
H
And yes only l-amino acids are used by terrestrial life
forms.

"If scientist in perfect conditions can't duplicate one single
left-handed amino acid, how could the 500 necessary for life form by chance?" (from your article)

Um... the Miller-Urey experiment
showed that amino acids can be made
by running a spark through a mixture
of hydrogen, carbon dioxide, methane,
water, and ammonia. This was in 1953.
Life uses 20 amino acids to make proteins, not
500!

"The scientific odds of even one left-sided amino acid forming by chance is
10 to the 123rd power. "

Actually as shown above it is quite simple, so the odds are
in fact 1.
Also I am impressed with the ability of creationist and
other groups to calculate the odds so exactly of
chemical processes. I only can calculate odds for something
when I know exactly what is happening and could happen.
"20 specific aminos are needed for the
simplest cell, but 500 specific types of amino acids are needed in order for
life to sustain in itself. "

Again the writer has no idea what they are talking about!

Answer 6

Evolution isn't something that comes and is going. this is something that has been and continues to be taking position. this is not something that purely takes position out of nowhere, both. That twister element is ridiculous. the position precisely did you examine this? became this a clinical booklet? I one way or the different doubt that. Your circumstances with the plane and the marbles have not something to do with how probable evolution is. and what's this "the possibility of Christianity operating is 100%"? What are you talking about? How does Christianity artwork 100%? That makes no experience. And what are those billions of "witnesses" you're refering to? Have they witnessed that god exists? back, I one way or the different doubt that.

Answer 7

Evolution is not about creating left-sided amino acids. It is about selecting traits that enable an individual to compete better for food and mates, therefore improving the chances of having offspring. If a faster rabbit outruns a bobcat, chances are that the faster rabbit will have more offspring than slower rabbits. Over time, successive generations of rabbits become faster because faster means survival and survival means having offspring.

That's how evolution works.

Answer 8

I'm afraid the page you are quoting is rife with errors and is not a scientific data source. For example, the sun's temperature actually does vary over time and the rate of the Earth's rotation has changed over time. The precision required for our existence is less than many would like you to believe. The zone of habitability is actually somewhat forgiving.

http://www.grandunification.com/hypertext/Planet_Orbits.html

There are dozens of other factual errors and logical fallacies on the page. I'm just giving you examples.

I won't argue the pros and cons of evolutionary theory here, but I do advise that if you are seeking information on the subject you find a source site where the author is scientifically literate.

Answer 9

First of all, the website you linked to is ridiculous. Perhaps today, certain changes in our cell structure would cause it to malfunction and die, but in the past our cell structure would have been simpler. Therefore, perhaps these small changes would not have caused them to die.

Also, you should keep in mind the astronomical size of the universe, the astronimical length of time it has been around, and the astronimical number of chances it has had to evolve. Then the odds don't seem that bad, do they? Besides, so what if the odds are slim to none? We would not be here discussing this if it didn't work out in our favor.

Answer 10

Since God created evolution, the odds that evolution would work are 100%. The major difference is God actually directed evolution to produce what he wanted rather than having a purely random evolutionary process.