Will we make a major technology shift away from Oil dependence Within 50 years ?

Question

We worry about Global warming and Oil supplies, so is the technology now available to make a switch away from an oil based economy ?

Answer 1

i think fuel cells will take over,from oil as an energy source.
VR

Answer 2

Yes, the technology is available to shift away from oil as the primary source of energy. Now, just because the tech is available does not mean it is out there in popular production quite yet. Check out the Popular Science article link to see the tech that is only about a year or so away.

Battery technologies and the electric cars that use them have come a long way since the 90's; check out the Tesla Roadster website for an example of the amazing performance and efficiency that electric vehicles can obtain. The Tesla Roadster will apparently be readily available at about this time in 2007 (albeit for around $100,000).

Diesel engines/hybrids have also come a long way in terms of efficiency and cleanliness, and might be another alternative that doesn't rely on oil (see third link).

Oh, and hydrogen is way over-hyped at the moment. It may play a role in the automotive industry, but the infrastructure just isn't available (and may never be conveniently available). See fourth link.

So 50yrs? I say the USA can reduce its oil consumption drastically within 10-20yrs (when people will need new vehicles), and this can certainly be accelerated if consumers start buying into these technologies now. Complaining or moping isn't getting the issue fixed; the responsibility lies on the consumers to demand the technologies that will solve the problem of foriegn oil dependence. We Americans tend to like new gadgets, but they have to be proven to work first, and that seems to be the limiting factor at the moment.

Answer 3

Short answer: Yes.
Medium answer: Yes, and the technology is currently available, for the most part, although it isn't economically viable yet. Sadly (probably because Yoda was still about 50-75 years in the future), the world chose the quick and easy path of dependence on the Dark Gold, and forever would it dominate our destiny... or at least, until the useable petroleum we can access runs out.
Long answer: Weaning our culture and our planet off of petroleum WILL happen, whether we want it to or not. Petroleum remains a finite resource, after all, and we haven't figured out how to synthesize it in such a way that it doesn't cost more than the natural stuff. The real question is when and how we can shift to an infrastructure that supports some other energy source. I'm in favor of a wide range of options: immediately, I'd like to see more diesel engines and peanut-oil-dispensing stations...
(No, I'm not kidding.
http://www.longmeadowranch.com/news/pressReleases/PR_05_0730.htm
See?)
... Anyway, back to the main topic. Aside from having peanut-oil and ethanol pumps installed at major fuel stations in the next year or two, I'd like to see butanol show up in the next five to ten years and hydrogen joining the party as soon as possible.

Answer 4

Well the fact is the technology to make the shift is available it is just too expensive or purposefully not being used by the government. Projections say we will run out of oil in the U.S. anywhere from 50-90 years depending on usage and the oil in Alaska. However despite rising gas prices they are still too cheap to make Americas realize that we need to start using hybrid cars, and electric cars NOW!!! The government has no problem using up all the oil in the world and saving money on alternative fuel sources, and Americans although complaing seem to just buy the gas at a higher price without actually taking a stand to fix this problem. Anyway I guess my point is the technology is availble we are just to naive to use it and we dont put enough pressure on teh govermnet to use it. I think our next trasition will be to natural gas, or ethanol/ alcohol run cars, before we advance to fuel cell and hydrogen run cars which are too innefiicent today.

Answer 5

If we look at the history of the energy source it has constantly changed.But they had limited usage and therefore the technological development was slow.With the usage of the fossil oil ,the technological development took place many fold.What we need is an alternative energy source which can replace oil usage without disturbing the present rate of development . There are two such energy source viz. Atomic Energy & Solar Energy.The former has maney negative usage and not environmental friendly.The later has a great potensial and inexostive. Some research have already done as non convantional energy source. Solar Energy is environmental friendly. Why the world should not try ?It is possible to replace the oil usage in comming 50years.

Answer 6

I'm not quite as optomistic about this as everyone else has answered. The truth as I see it will be probably not in 50 years. It won't happen until we have either completely drained the planet of natural resouces or are nearly at that point. Unless there is a global effort to remedy the current problems we now face, our planet and mankind will face a difficult or non-existent future. Alot of the things they are trying to do today still end up causing more harm to the planet than good. People need to realize there is no quick fix. You think buying a hybrid helps? What they don't tell you is that the batteries these hybrids use are extremely dangerous to the environment in the long run. We need to completely re-think the entire idea of how we travel or future generations are going to suffer in a big way. The solutions we come up with today aren't well thought out enough to yield any better results in helping the environment because all the solutions are meant for short term relief/fixes. Long term solutions are what we need. Long term solutions that don't contradict themselves.

Answer 7

In 50 years, okay let's break this down.....

At current rates and prices we will only have enough oil for a couple more years and then.... Prices will drop???

Oh yes, at today's prices everyone is returning to old fields and finding ways to remove more oil.. So we are expecting a price drop beginning in 2 years that will put a serious damper on the development of alternative fuels.

But the price drop will not last very long, and we'll be back to current prices. In about 10 years, more and more of our oils will come from oil sands and oil shales, and we will have about a 20 year life with these resources.

Then will come oil production from coal and gas-to-gasoline generation. The major developments in biofuels are about 30 years away. I believe the period of coal gasification and gas-to-gasoline production will take us to your 50 year mark...

What about the hydrogen economy? What about wind power, solar power and geothermal energy generation? They will only make a small contribution to our overall energy uses. The use of nuclear energy will be much more practical that those. We will have to become more dependent on nuclear energy for electricity in the future.

That what my crystal ball says.

Answer 8

The oil is not going to stop any time soon. To a smaller event oil is being made now. Don't worry about the war as long as they want to kill u there will be some Marines to try to stop them from killing u. Don't be stupid enough to say this is the presidents war ,they started it. How we are able to use other fuels depends more on u getting the super education. What I have heard so far doesn't look good ,you younger people may have your nose rubbed in it.Good luck my grand children are depending on u.

Answer 9

There are the beginnings of a means to do so, but our country is currently so focused on the war that the money that could go toward changing our economy is not available. It will take many years before anything is done. Maybe in 50 years...if this country isn't torn apart by war and economical break-down.

Answer 10

Probably to a large degree however we will also see a lot
of oil starting to come out of the Canadian Oil Sands and
the Colorado Oil Shale....
More Oil in the Colorado Oil Shale than there was in all the
Mid East...It is just a lot more expensive to get out ....

Answer 11

you have made a extensive, obvious and probably intentional errors. kin production has no longer something to do with how plenty oil we import. All oil, in spite of the place it incredibly is drilled, is offered on the international industry to the utmost bidder. it relatively is recommended to look up what the fracking fluids in contact in getting the oil from the shale relatively do, and the various issues in contact.