What are the chances of a third party being elected into the Presidential Office? Why or Why Not?

Question

Which 'third party' could it be?

Give me some good answers and try and explain. I am curious to see what I get.

Answer 1

Maybe not in the next election, but there seems to be little difference between the parties these days. History shows that political parties don't last forever.

Answer 2

As of right now I don't think there is a good chance for a long time (at least 20 years), unless they propose the notion of Universal healthcare and have sufficient funds to back it up. I'm thinking maybe the Independant party or possibly the Green party. Right now, the only people that would vote for third party are the swing votes (which makes up about 8-10% of the potential votes) and those voters who are on the fence about their own particular party. However, I think the major factors would be the promise of a proposal of Universal healthcare and what kind of back-up plan would be in effect after the baby-boom generation dies and leaves practically no social security for the generations retiring.

Answer 3

More than 80% of all registered voter declare either Republican or Democrat. The Reform Party, formed by Ross Perot, is the next largest party and only has about 8% of the registered voters.

It would take many years, even decades for third party to gain enough political traction to challenge the two main parties. I though the Reform Party might be able to do so, but they have been stagnant for years.

Answer 4

Chances are a) slim, b) none. And slim just left town.

Many 3rd party candidates have tried, and none have been successful.

Teddy Roosevelt was 2-term Republican president, and yet when he lost his party's nomination (I forget to whom), he ran on the Bull Moose party ticket, and lost.

George Wallace ran, and lost.
John Anderson ran and lost.
Ross Perot, with all of his bazillions, ran on the Reform party ticket. And lost.

The battle for the election is not at the fringes, but in the middle - and there are enough Right and Left Wingers to keep the middle from getting enough votes to go independent to win. Most 3rd party candidates run as populists, but the solid die-hard Rs and D's won't abandon their party or candidate. On the left, think labor and environmentalists. On the right, think business, finance and conservative religious. Each side has invested millions in their candidate and party, to see their agenda advanced, and they are not going to throw that away to finance an independent.

Then, consider if an independent were elected to the presidency. He/she would have basically no support in the Congress to advance an agenda. It would be extremely difficult - think gridlock times 2.

Anyway, that's my theory, and I'm sticking to it.

Answer 5

Our political system is based on the two party system.
Not a three party system. Candidates like Ross Perot, is an example that lost the election, but had a profound impact on the election as an Independent Party candidate.
He split one of the 2 parties enough for a minority President, or less than 50% of popular vote, (Bill Clinton).

Answer 6

I would love to see something other than the normal two paties but unforutnatly even if all the popular vote was for a 3rd party the electoral college is only abot the normal 2 and so we would still get the same type of thing/

Answer 7

Slim chance. It is the public's fault. A large percentage of us like the idea of a real third choice, but many of us are afraid to vote for one. We are afraid that if we vote for that third party, then the party we like the least might win. You know what, it might win anyhow.

Answer 8

No chance.

Because of the electoral college.

A third party candidate could never get enough support in enough states. Most republican and democrat voters would never vote for a 3rd party candidate (no matter who it was) because they would feel that it would help the opposing 'major' party candidate in terms of the electoral votes of their state.

For example, as a Republican in Florida, there's no way I'd vote for a 3rd party candidate, because if enough Republicans did that, I beleive it would help the Democrat Presidential candidate, not the 3rd party candidate, in terms of getting Florida's electoral votes....

Answer 9

First off, there no difference between Rep and Dem - it's the same damn thing and if you think different then you are a brainwashed fool. Second, if as Bush predicted, and there is a pandemic then there WILL NOT be any kind of election what so ever thanks to the Patriot Act. My sources? The Patriot Act itself. People better start waking up.

Answer 10

I would say pretty good, because all Americans are disgusted with the status quo of both parties.