Asteroid with 1 in 60 chance of hitting Earth descovered... Anyone care?

Question

On Christmas Eve 2004, scientists discovered an Asteroid headed towards Earth due to hit in the middle of April 2029. It was a small story in the paper and afterwards there were a few specials on the NG & Discovery Ch. After that everyone seemed to forget about it. I know its over 20 yrs away and we have other things to deal with. It's kind of a big deal I think. And so far there have not been any major scientific develoments on defending agaist a celestial hit. Kind of scary, I think that people just forget about it so easily when most of us will probably still be alive in 2029. But, on the other hand, I think if I HAD to choose how I was going to die or the world was going to end I would pick being hit by an asteroid or comet. I wouldn't hide or try to save myself only to have a future on a dark destroyed planet - I would probably just sit on my roof. It's gotta be great to see that, even if its over in a few seconds. Anyone ever see 'End Day' on Discovery or 'Last Night'?

Answer 1

Hopefully it would hit north america and I would die instantly and then the huge amount of force would send mile high tidal waves over to Asia and Europe so they would all die by drowning because I don't want to ever be the person who drowns to death.

Answer 2

That's really scary. Yeah, I heard about that a couple years ago, but, as most people are prone to do, I didn't think of it as anything bigger, However, now that I dwell on it, isn't one major theory of dinosaur's distruction an asteroid collission? I would most likely be living in 2029, and 1/60 chance is pretty freaky. Yet, there might be better tachnology (probably not, though) by then and hopefully it could be avoided.

However, one really scary thing is something I saw on the History Channel or Discovery (I don't remember) about 4-5 years ago. It was about the ancients Mayans or Aztecs (one of those civilizations), and they were explaining how the civilization's time recording was extremely accurate. Like, the Mayans (I'm sure iit was them, so I'm going to refer to them) predicited when some sort of comet would pass Earth hundreds of years in the future, and scientists today realize that they were only about several hours (or so) off from the actual time. Anyway, the Mayans also had other predictions, and many of them have been proven to come true or close to true. Yet, one such predicition (along with the show, a previous teacher of mine also told me this once, and he's huge on these kinds of things) was when the Earth is going to be destroyed, and it was estimated around the 2030s (if I remember correctly); I do know, the Mayans had very advanced mathematics and astonomy, supposedly. I don't know how much to believe, but if some of their predicitions have been proven to become true, then?...

Plus, there are all the major religions that focus on the apocolypse and stuff, so, yeah, pretty scary stuff.

Anyway, I probably got way off topic, but it's interesting. As for the actual asteroid hitting Earth in 2029, that's really scary, but I'm gonna be a good, average human and worry about the issues of NOW. Lolz...

Now and then,
the Gibbler

P.S. Hope I didn't scare anyone...

Answer 3

Everyone forgot about it because it was later determined that the asteroid would miss us.

A lot of people misunderstand these early alerts (there was no miscalculation). They're designed to alert other astronomers so more data can be obtained, not to warn the public. In fact, since the 'warning' you're talking about, astronomers have revised their procdedures to lessen the chances that these go out to the public as a warning.

To calculate an object's trajectory, you usually need at least three observations at three different angles, and that would still be considered a preliminary analysis of the orbit. Considering how far away asteroids are when they're first observed, that really can't be done right off the bat. If an astronomer took three observations in one night, they're practically repeating the same observation three times, not obtaining three unique observations.

There's no way to compute any kind of accurate orbit out of just one observation. They do the best they can and have a wide swath of possible orbits. Those first reports are so other astronomers will have some clue as to where to look for the asteroid later on, when the asteroid will have moved enough to provide a different angle.

It might be possible that the Earth will move through that swath of possible orbits, but the chance that it will move through the asteroid's actual orbit and collide are pretty small. The odds for the asteroid you're talking about actually were up to 37 to 1, which is about as high a chance as any of these warnings have produced. Still, putting that out as a warning to the public when the report was actually meant for other astronomers is a little irresponsible.

In this case, they didn't even have to wait for future observations. Once the object was identified, astronomers were able to inspect earlier pictures of the stars and were able to find past observations. An accurate orbit was computed within a few days instead of having to wait for future observations. No one would have taken a closer look at those earlier pictures if not for the warning put out in December 2004, so the warning served its intended purpose.

Answer 4

Not to dispute the previous posts, but at the time the initial report was written, the discovery did not have enough data to make accurate predications about it's orbit, and the scientists were very clear to say that it has a possibility of being that close, but more data was needed. Once they were able to track it over a few more weeks, they were able to make a more accurate prediction.

However, there are lots of meteors and asteroids that are tracked for how close they come. Jupiter, having a strong pull, has the ability to pull stuff out of the asteroid belt and throw those on crazy orbits, as well as stuff that might be coming in from the Kuiper Belt. Amateur astronomers make many of the discoveries, however in recent years some of the federal programs have increased in surveillance of the night skies.

Discovering one that will impact Earth will hopefully have many years before impact (depending on its size) which will allow us several different methods of changing its path. 1 degree over a long distance can have huge effects. However nukes are unlikely to play a part in any of those methods.

Answer 5

We have already developed technology that can defend the Earth from asteroids, and it was tested with "smashing success". we actually tried a considered a couple different ideas.

Nuking it was one of the first ideas but it was turned down because if there was a failure at launch, then the asteriod would hit, but some of us would die before that.

Also nuking the asteroid directly might just break it up into many different asterioids that were big enough to do alot of damage, only now the damage will be more spread out, and trying to change its direction with a nuke was too risky, and might not work.

What we making that we know to work is a solar powered device that works on the same principal of melting ants under magnifying glasses, only with a purpose.

Answer 6

Well we will probably survive even if we are hit by an asteroid. Just look at Meteor crater Arizona a Meteor or something from space hit us and Humanity is still alive today. Besides it would most likely Hit the Asian Continent or Land in a Body of water due to thier size's and I don't live in that part of the world so why care!!!?

Answer 7

I think that in a strange way many people are more comfortable with the idea of the whole world ending than with the idea that everything will go on just fine once they are gone.

I have heard of this asteroid. I had thought scientists had determined that it will not strike the Earth. I hope they're right!

PS I DID see "Last Night." A spooky little art film - thought provoking!

Answer 8

You can't really defend against a huge asteroid slamming into the Earth. I think you're on the right track with just sitting on the roof and watching. I would also make sure to have plenty of beer on hand.

Answer 9

It's not going to hit....it's not even a 1 in 60 chance. It is NO chance! Half of the stuff they show on the Discovery Channel is sensational BS designed to boost their ratings at the expense of their viewers' intelligence.

Answer 10

I think that "1 in 60" chance was revised to a much smaller chance of being hit. If you follow CNN Science or other major networks, these stories are covered.