If a country has a total fertility rate of 1.24 children per woman, and it needs to be 2.1 to sustain the population how do I calculate when the population will start dropping?
2006-08-06 12:17:27 · 3 answers · asked by Anonymous in Science & Mathematics ➔ Mathematics
Apparently it's dropping now
2006-08-06 13:09:23 · answer #1 · answered by MollyMAM 6 · 1⤊ 0⤋
The population is falling whenever the death rate exceeds the birth rate, or (with a slightly more complicated model) when births + immigrants < deaths + emmigrants. If 2.1 is replacement (which seems slightly on the high side; I think of 2.05 to 2.08 as normal) then 1.24 should be falling.
The only reason it wouldn't be is that the population is very young, but that kind of demographic study makes everything more complex.
2006-08-06 19:26:35 · answer #2 · answered by Charles G 4 · 0⤊ 0⤋
Isn't it dropping already? I don't understand the ?
2006-08-06 19:22:45 · answer #3 · answered by Autumn_Anne 5 · 0⤊ 0⤋