Can probabilities of events be effected by the same event occurring previously?

Question

What I mean is, let's say you are flipping a coin. Is it any more likely to get tails if you have flipped 1,000,000,000,000,000,000^100,000! (lol, I like that number) heads in a row, than if it was your first flip?

I mean, it is less likely that you will get the first scenario than the second, but for the single flip that I am referring to, is it's likelyhood effected at all?

Please only answer if you have a reason behind your answer. Also, please think about your reason before you answer.

But... what if you treat the single flip, and the set of (big number) flips, plus one, as two sets that you are comparing, then you see that the probability of the latter is much lower... Ahh... I see... No... I don't... my head hurts... Umm... that made sense but then it didn't...

Argh... I'm a pirate...

Lol okay... treating them as two sets and comparing them makes the difference obvious, but the single flip at the end still ahs the same effect of decreasing the probability by 1/2 (the probability of the previous state) but the changes are still different since the initial state probabilities were different... right? So you can't really do it like that, but you can still see the difference...

Probability of getting 1 heads = 1/2
2 heads = 1/4
3 = 1/8
...
7 = 1/128
8 = 1/256

Yup... Maybe you would have to count all teh times a coin has ever been flipped in the history of the universe ^_^ Then you would also have to account for all the other event catagories a coin flip falls under

Okay, the coin flip was a representation of a random situation, stop trying to poke holes in my comparison to aviod the question!

"However, in this case, getting so many times the same side indicates that it is not random. You then have 100% chances to get heads.
I would say in that case that your coin has identical sides, but it is only a theory among others..."
Lol, wtf are you talking about? I said that you flipped a coin and (un)luckily enough you got heads a few times more than you would expect... Nothing there might indicate that it is not random, it was just an unlikely outcome, but that happens all the time.

As for the last statement... I thought I said stop trying to poke holes in my analogy... This is getting annoying, it's like somebody saying something is red (in an everyday experience) and everybody going off on them about how that might not be true because of differences in perception, oh! and maybe there's extreme gravitational distortion or relative motion there shifting the frequency! Oh no, that was so stupid to say that was red because... bla bla bla, just answer the damn question please.

As you can see, I'm getting annoyed.

"However, I disagree with everyone else who says that the chances are still 50/50 after 1,000,000,000,000,000,000^100 flips of heads. You are all wrong on this. If you flip heads this many times it's always going to come up heads. The coin must be double sided with heads. It's gotta be rigged in some way for this to happen. If a coin has a 50/50 chance of hitting either heads or tails, it's not going to come heads 1,000,000,000,000,000,000^100 times in a row. You would be a moron to bet on tails on the next flip."

Okay... I don't know the words to describe the stupidity of this statement...

Answer 1

Each flip you have a 50/50 chance of hitting either heads or tails. So even if you have 1,000,000,000,000,000,000^100 flips of heads, your chance of hitting tails in your next still remains equal odds, 50/50. Past events don't change the probability when you have the same odds each and every time.

Just like if the lottery numbers tonight were 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, you would have equal odds next Friday that you will hit 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 again, even though it hit the week before, and just as equal odds of hitting any other possible combination that may occur.

Present results aren't predictors of future results because the odds are calculated really based on infinity. They may be 1 in a 100 for example, but that doesn't mean that 10,000 times can't pass without ever hitting that 1 time. Each time you STILL have the same odds, 1 in a 100 no matter what occurred before... unless of course the odds are inaccurate to begin with.

Answer 2

When you flip ten heads or 50 heads in a row, the chances of flipping heads or tails is still 50/50 because the coin doesn't remember what it has done on past flips. It can't say to itself "hey man you are coming up heads too many times, let's go tails on this flip.

However, I disagree with everyone else who says that the chances are still 50/50 after 1,000,000,000,000,000,000^100 flips of heads. You are all wrong on this. If you flip heads this many times it's always going to come up heads. The coin must be double sided with heads. It's gotta be rigged in some way for this to happen. If a coin has a 50/50 chance of hitting either heads or tails, it's not going to come heads 1,000,000,000,000,000,000^100 times in a row. You would be a moron to bet on tails on the next flip.

Answer 3

You have the same chance of getting heads or tails every single time you flip the coin, 50%. You could argue that its like playing the lottery, your odds are now 1,000,000,000,000,000,000^100 to 1 that you will flip it to tails. But, in all actuality, its starting over each time you flip it so the chances are 50/50. So my answer on this one is no, the probability of events would not be affected by previous occurrence

Answer 4

it is a nice problem.
in a normal flipping coin problem, the answer would be, you still have 50% probability only to get heads.
However, in this case, getting so many times the same side indicates that it is not random. You then have 100% chances to get heads.
I would say in that case that your coin has identical sides, but it is only a theory among others...


In a situation where you are trying to exctract a theory from an experiment, remember that the theory must match the experiment, and not the opposite.
Nothing in your system indicates that you have the same probability to get one side or the other. Since the number of experiment seems to be large enough, you can formulate the law of probability for this system yourself, and start searching for a theory to explain it.

Answer 5

You wold normally get a clear 50/50 chance on each and every flip but there are theories for applying some laws of quantum mechanics and undetermination that could lead to a slightly different chance of flipping tails for example, in theory there may be this posibility, but in practice things are different... also you should bare in mind that if you have succeded flipping the coin one way much more than the other the coin may have a special affinity to that side, being heavier or bent a little bit can affect the odds

Answer 6

No, the probability does not change. You still have a 50:50 chance of getting tails (or heads) when you flip a coin. It doesn't matter how many times you flipped heads before.
The probability does change for successive throws...like your chances lessen for flipping 3 tails in succession than flipping other combinations in succession.

Answer 7

This is the basis of coming up with odds.
(odds are straight math used to predict what "may" likely happen)

My buddy once flipped a quarter 24 times,it came up heads each
time,on the 25 time it went behind the piano.We got a flashlight and
looked,it was heads.We could not move the piano or reach the coin
so the fun was over.

Does this help?

Answer 8

The probabilities of indendent events do not depend on previous outcomes, as in the flip of a coin. However, it is possible for events to not be independent, and in those cases, subsequent probabilities are subject to prior outcomes. An example of the latter is taking samples of a population without replacement of the samples.

Answer 9

taking a fair coin. any two flips are mutually exclusive events. meaning that the two flips are independent of each other. so even if you have somehow flipped 10000000.. heads in a row you still have a 0.5 probablity to get a tail the next time

Answer 10

It does matter because every single flip is a separate event. The law of physics already determines which way the coin will land as soon as its flipped.