In Poker....
If I have suited cards, and the flops shows 2 more of the same suit... What is the percentage chance that I can get 1 more with the 2 remaining?
2006-08-03 08:14:33 · 12 answers · asked by asu_mikey 2 in Games & Recreation ➔ Gambling
you have seen 5 cards (the 2 suited cards in your hand plus the 3 cards on the table) that leaves 9 out of 47 cards in your suit.
Therefore he chances of filling the flush on the turn 9/47 = 19.15%
Assuming you missed the turn, the chances of getting it on the river are 9/46 = 19.56%
Total chances of filling 4 card flush after the flop = 19.15% + 19.56% = 38.7%
2006-08-03 15:27:51 · answer #1 · answered by Alan19 2 · 0⤊ 0⤋
With two cards remaining, your chances of failure are 38/47 x 37/46 which = 65%. Your success chances are 35%.
On a limit table, make sure that you have enough chips in the pot before calling, or making a value bet with a flush draw. And if you don't have one of the top two available cards in the suit (usually the AK, sometimes the Q, if an A or K is on the board) you are not in a good position.
On a no-limit table, I would not go all-in, unless there was a particular tournament situation, or I had other possibilities (like a top pair, or a nut straight draw as well)
2006-08-05 02:57:52 · answer #2 · answered by Polymath 5 · 0⤊ 0⤋
Definitely not 71%. Here is a fast way to figure it out and get pretty close. If you have suited cards and see 2 more of that suit on the flop then that means that you have 9 outs (9 more cards of that suit in the deck). Multiply the number of outs that you have by 4 and you get 36. You have about a 36% chance of catching the flush.
2006-08-03 15:25:30 · answer #3 · answered by mhunt3 1 · 0⤊ 0⤋
Assuming you are playing hold'em. You can figure this by calculating the times you will miss the flush entirely. There are 47 cards to come for the turn and nine of them give you a flush. So subtract 9 cards that help you from the total amount of possible cards which comes out ot 38. 38 cards do not help you out of a total of 47 possible cards. On the river 37 cards do not help you out of a total of 46 possible cards. We multiply these figures as fractions now to figure how often you will miss your flush. 38/47 X 37/46 = 1406/2162. You will miss your flush 1406 times out of every 2162 tries. Subtract 1406 from 2162 to get the number of times you will catch your flush. 2162 - 1406 = 756. You will catch your flush 756 times for every 2,162 tries. This comes out to 35.05%
However, there will be times when someone is drawing to a higher flush. Sometimes your opponent could improve to a full house. If someone flopped trips against your flush draw, you only win the hand about a quarter of the time. If someone flopped two pair then you win less than a third of the time. If your only way to win is by catching a flush then you would do well to lower the 35% estimate quite a bit. You could be drawing dead or nearly dead in some cases when you are drawing to a lessor flush than someone else.
2006-08-05 18:07:38 · answer #4 · answered by aaron g 2 · 0⤊ 0⤋
There are 9 outs left for you... assuming that it will take the flush to win - AND that no other player has been dealt a card of that suit (not probable). According to a Texas Hold 'em Odds Chart you have a 34.97% chance of making the flush --- but NOT a 34.97% chance of winning the hand considering everything that could beat you (higher flush, full house, 4 of a kind, straight flush, royal flush). I have listed the link to the page with the odds chart in the sources page - take a look for yourself. There is also a Texas Holdem pot odds calculator on the site if there is anything else you'd like to know the odds for. Everything on the site is free - it's definitely worth checking out for all of your poker information. Hope this helps!
2006-08-06 07:38:14 · answer #5 · answered by mplskid81 2 · 0⤊ 0⤋
Not very high. Maybe about 22 percent. I guess since there are four of the same suit openned already. There would be nine more out there out of 48 cards.
2006-08-03 15:21:39 · answer #6 · answered by xxthink2muchxx 2 · 0⤊ 0⤋
As long as your suited pair is high end cards, then go for the gusto! I have seen many a straight and flush at the River.
2006-08-03 16:43:31 · answer #7 · answered by sk8terboy1963 4 · 0⤊ 0⤋
It is 2 to 1 that you will make your flush by the river.
2006-08-03 16:20:08 · answer #8 · answered by generationofswine1 2 · 0⤊ 0⤋
mhunt is completely correct. I am a semi pro and that is exactly how you calculate the odds of catching a card.
2006-08-03 16:02:39 · answer #9 · answered by nonono12345 3 · 0⤊ 0⤋
It's about 41%. I usually fold if someone bets a more than small bet. It's safer that way.
2006-08-03 15:22:14 · answer #10 · answered by Steve B 3 · 0⤊ 0⤋