How often would a professional poker player win my 40 person texas hold 'em tournament?

Question

all amatuers but some very good players (two people from this tourney have won their way into the WSOP main event by winning online qualifiers)

Let me be clear... if a pro played against the amatuers in my tourney 1000 times what woudl be his winning percentage?

blinds go up every 10 minutes... unitl it gets down the final table and then they go up teh same as there is people left. They stop at 5-10K.. intial buy in is 2000.

The main reason I asked is that I have played in this thing 9 times and won it twice, took 2nd once and had the chip lead at the bubble and took the lion share of the deal another time and then cashed in 6th one more time.

I think I am ready for the big time.

Answer 1

This is largely dependany upon unknown factors such as the blind structure and time between raising the blinds and the number of starting chips. You also need to know how good the pro is and how good all of the competition is. I would guess somewhere between 3 and 10 percent.

It's extremely difficult to calculate someones real odds of winning a tournament. All you can really do is try to add up all the various factors that can influence your chances then try to make a good guess. It's very hard to be twice as good as an average competent player. The competition will need to be pretty bad for the pro to be much more than twice as likely to win as a decent average player. The previous estimate of 20 percent is probably way off the mark.

Answer 2

It's impossible to calculate. The pro's vary in how amazing to how good but not so amazing they are. Also, theres a lot of dumb luck in poker. Look at the WSOP tourny itself. A pro won last year, but an amatuer came in second AND he was beat by a really ridiculous hand that no one would have put the pro on.
The past two years before that, amatuers.

Also, sometimes it's easier for a bad player to play other bad players than a mediocure player playing bad poker players.

If you think you are that good, go to a casino and try in a low roll tourny or a small amount buy in. But I wouldn't suggest putting 10 grand towards WSOP and I would say, don't put your hopes up to high.

Answer 3

My guess is 20%. An average outcome would be 2.5% but you figure that there will be a lot of players overmatched by a seasoned pro.

Answer 4

On any given Sunday...

just depends on how the cards fall. That's why they call it gambling.