Floyd Landis - What might naturally cause elevated testosterone levels?

Question

Assume for a moment Floyd Landis is not guilty of doping. What could account for his elevated testosterone levels? Is this a possible result of strenuous activity or genetic variance?

Anyone with any medical experience?

Answer 1

Okay. I'm a statistician, but I've not done clinical work. Some of my colleagues have and they tell stories of just how poor medical statistical practices really are.

First, the code was recently revised to use "two standard deviations". Assuming a Normal (Gaussian) distribution, what this could mean is that 5% of all men on earth will have levels that "abnormal". It would be normal for 2 1/2% of men to have a low reading and 2 1/2% to have a high level outside the two standard deviations range. There were about 200 riders in the TdF so 5 should be low and 5 should be high.

Okay, let's say this is a 'fluctuation' for Floyd and that previous readings for Floyd were within the two standard deviations Normal bounds. Unless they have a long term baseline for Floyd and for a number of competitors, there really is no basis for establishing what is and is not normal.

Finally, it should be standard practice to run more than a single test on the original sample as well as the back up sample before asserting "guilt" or "innocence". There's no disclosure on what the false positive and false negative rates are for these tests.

There are potentially more reliable tests which can also discern between artificial and naturally occuring testosterone called a CIR or Carbone Isotope Ratio analysis that should be applied.

Science and misapplied statistics and tests lull us into a false sense of security that we KNOW what we are doing. In reality we don't. We've only increased the chances that we might be right. But we can always be wrong.

Answer 2

Check the following link on cyclingnews.com that came out today.

The way I see it is this. Landis' best defense is the future of drug testing in all sports. Yes there are anomalies among athletes and the best way to show that is comprehensive testing not only in cycling but football, basketball, baseball and other sports. If these sports had adopted the WADA testing parameters then maybe there would have been a precedent for Landis to use (if his "B" samples is the same as the "A"). But we know this will never happen and it is possible and sad that Landis will be stripped of his title and have a hard time racing again. Don't forget about his upcoming hip replacement,which may force him to retire if he gets a 12-24 month ban.

Answer 3

All male cycling have testosterone, of course. The test is based on an analysis of the testosterone/epitestosterone weight ratio in urine.

If the ratio is too high (i.e., if there is too much testosterone compared to epitestosterone), the assumption is is that the cyclist has treated himself with testosterone. Specifically, when this ratio exceeds 6, it is considered evidence of testosterone doping.

Some studies show that consumption of ethanol (i.e., alcoholic beverages) can raise the ratio. I suspect we'll hear more about this: Floyd was famously seen drinking a beer after his disastrous day in the Alps. In addition, Floyd revealed today that he's been taking oral thyroid hormone for a thyroid condition. Perhaps this caused a spoke in his testosterone? Or, maybe he just naturally has high testosterone levels.

Keep in mind that the test results show only that the testosterone to epitestosterone ratio is unusual--it does show that he took testosterone. A mass spectrometry test could determine whether the testosterone was produced by his body or introduced from outside. But they haven't performed this test.

Answer 4

By STEPHEN WILSON, AP Sports Writer

Under World Anti-Doping Agency regulations, a ratio of testosterone to epitestosterone greater than 4:1 is considered a positive result and subject to investigation. The threshold was recently lowered from 6:1. The most likely natural ratio of testosterone to epitestosterone in humans is 1:1.

Answer 5

They were just talking about it on ESPN. They said a lot of natural things could have happened to make his levels rise above normal. I think the French are just poor losers and have conspired against Landis to discredit him.

Answer 6

Yep. There's so much speculation. Lets just wait and see.

But in essence, I hope he hasn't disappointed all of us. I'm hoping the "B" test comes back negative and disproves test "A", and that the testosterone ratio has a logical explaination.

Lets cross our fingers!



PS And by the way, I went to the WADA website and saw the handbooks on banned substances and it is just huge. Definately only a trained persona can decipher - and this was only one handbook. Just overwhelming.

Answer 7

Landis is taking certain medications for his upcoming hip surgery. They are investigating whether some of those medications may have caused a "false positive".

Answer 8

The entire sport of pro cycling is dirty, not just Americans. My guess is 90% of the riders in the Tour are dirty. Even if he took some sort of supplement, his team dr should know if it is on a banned substance list. My guess is after his horrible stage in the alps, he doped in order to have his incredible day the next day.

Answer 9

If he does have a thyroid problem that alone can effect his tests. I've had a thyroid problem for the last 25 yrs. the thyroid control alot in your body so it can throw off the tests. if he has hyperthyroidism that speeds his metabolism. I have hypothyroidism it slows down my metabolism.

Answer 10

I hate to say it.. but I think he is guilty. It would not have been natural because he tested positive just once and not throughout the race. Also it is suspicious because it was after Stage 17, his best race.