is any one aware of the next world wide pandemic with bird flu on its way???

Question

is anyone worried about the bird flu or avian flu that the experts say will be here sometime this year? i have been freaking out for the past 10 months ever since i heard of this deadly virus which of course we have no vaccine for. people need to research this and get prepared. it happened before do you really think it will happen again and soon???

Answer 1

There are some misconceptions about how humans contract avian influenza.

At this point, most people who have bird flu got it from poultry. But there have been several clusters of people in which there was limited human to human spread of the virus.

The latest cluster of human to human spread is in Northern Sumatra in Indonesia. A woman got the disease (they think probably from a bird but they're not sure) and six members of her family got the disease from her.

Also two animals don't have to be involved for the virus to be able to make the jump to people.

People can easily catch viruses from birds, but what we are talking about is the mutation that would enable the virus to spread easily from person to person. That mutation cold happen in several ways.

That mutation could happen spontaneously.

It could also occur in a pig that contracted avian influenza and human influenza at the same time. In Asia pigs and birds are often kept in the same pen right aside of the home. So the pigs have the opportunity to get bird viruses. Pigs are also susceptible to human flu viruses.

The mutation could also happen in a person who has the avian virus. We have seen this in the cluster in Sumatra.

This virus is currently deadly. There have been 233 people worldwide who have gotten the virus and 133 of those people died. BUT the virus will have to mutate to spread from human to human easily and when it mutates it is very likely that it won't remain as deadly.

No one can tell at this point just how deadly it will be. There are many similarities between this virus and the 1918 virus however.

On the subject of containing the virus.... H5N1 avian influenza virus has now spread to birds in 51 countries in Asia, Europe, and Africa, and it continuing to spread.

The virus is difficult to contain in countries with the resources to put into the fight. Unfortunately many countries in Asia and especially in Africa do not have the resources to even attempt to do the job.

In Africa we are seeing people uncover infected birds that were buried in pitsl They take the birds home to their families to eat because they are hungry. That is a very dangerous situation.

Unfortunately, it won't be possible to contain it. The United Nations organization that is in charge of this fight is the World Health Organization. It reports on these problems. You can find this info on their website too.

We don't have any vaccine for the current strain of H5N1. We can't find vaccine. We have to produce it.

We do have a very small store of vaccine that was made for the strain of H5N1 that was in Vietnam two years ago. The virus has mutated enough since then that this vaccine will not cover the current strain. We may try to use it - maybe it will give some protection - but no one really thinks that it will work on the strain that we face now.

We can't produce vaccine until the virus mutates. You have to have the virus before you can produce vaccine. It will take 6-9 months to have the first vaccine once the strain has been identified.

We can't produce a lot of vaccine quickly. There aren't many companies who produce vaccine. (It's not a big money maker - partly because of lawsuits against companies who make it)

There is only one company that produces vaccine in the United States. We also buy vaccine from companies that produce it in other countries. If there is a shortage though, we expect that vaccine will be used in the countries where it is made - not send overseas to the U.S.

We still make vaccine in eggs - and we don't know if this vaccine will grow in the eggs or destroy them. We would also need massive amounts of eggs to make the quantities of vaccine we would need. If our poultry is infected, we might not be able to get eggs.

There is some good news about vaccine though. We are in the process of figuring out how to grow vaccine without the eggs and they're talking about how to increase production. The company that produces vaccine in the U.S. is planning to expand it's production facility.

All of this is scary, but there are things that you can do. Read the website that the government has set up www.pandemicflu.gov . It has information about preparations you can make.

The CDC also has information. www.cdc.gov

And WHO (the UN organization) has info too www.who.int/en/

And if you'd like to talk to other people who are talking about this and trying to figure how to handle preparations there is a good forum www.avianflutalk.com There's no selling - just a lot of really good information from people who have been studying this for a long time.

Answer 2

They have actually been preparing for the past few years, but they are making it more aware as the years come and go. It is predicted that there is a flu pandemic every 40 years, and the last was in 1962 I believe, so we are "due" for one. As a regular "john doe" the thing to do to get prepared is to keep healthly and get your flu shot. Even though the flu shot will not protect you against the avain flu, it will prevent you from getting many other flu's and therefore keep you healthy so you can fight the avian flu if there is a pandemic!!
It is predicted that it will affect 15-30% of the population, but not all of these will die. They say deadly because the amount of deaths are increased from people getting the "regular" flu. Don't be freaking out, just be prepared by knowing good hand hygiene and getting your flu shot!!
Hope this calmes you down a bit!

Answer 3

There are thousands of types of flu, many of which can be transmitted from birds to humans. None of the current strains of influenza are deadly in a pandemic fashion.

It is true that there is no cure for the avian flu, this is because there is no cure for any type of influenza. In fact, even the current vaccines are only good for so long, and quickly become obsolete as the influenza virus mutates.

My advice would be to keep calm, and don't worry about it. Try and remember, that with almost any topic there is at least one expert, and often experts, who will say what the media wants to hear. Newspapers and TV News shows get higher ratings from claiming that there is another deadly flu coming, than they do from claiming that everyone is going to be okay. Therefor these papers and tv journalists seek out the experts that say what they want repeat to the public for the highest ratings.

Take everything you hear on TV and in the Paper with two grains of salt.

If you are truly worried, talk to your physician. It is true that deadly epidemics of the flu have occured before, but this was before we truly understood what the flu was, how it worked, and how best to treat it.


Tiger Striped Dog MD

Answer 4

Here is what I know.

H5N1, aka "Bird Flu" is a reasonable medical concern. Especially for epidemiologist, but as a well informed person I am not overly worried.

Here is why "Bird Flu" has gotten so much press.

1. H5N1 is classified as such because of certain proteins that exist on the outside of the virus. Basically viruses have to "dock" with our cells and trick them into thinking they are something legit in order to gain access.

Human cells are accustom to fighting H1 through H3, but not much exposure to H5. So basically Our cells have a good chance of recognizing a virus doesn't belong if it has a "bad costume" on (H1-H3). But our cells are naive to the good costume of H5.

2. The "Spanish Flu" earlier this century that killed a lot of people was also an H5 virus. This is part of why the "Bird Flu" has gotten so much attention. It is very recent in everyone's mind how many people died. This flu was very bad, because it struck healthy people dead. Not just the weakened, the very young and the very old. Young fit men in there 20's and 30's died. It hit the heads of households, so it hurt the country all together.

3. Most "Flu" vaccines are manufactured in chicken eggs. That is why they ask you if you are allergic to eggs before you get the shot. Because the "bird flu" kills birds it was also killing the eggs before the vaccine could be made. This was a significant hurdle.

4. Here is what you don't know:
The issue with the vaccine has been overcome.

Since the SARS outbreak we have much greater confidence in the ability of ASIA and other areas to contain outbreaks.

"Bird flu" cannot pass from human to human. You can only catch it from an animal.

5. Where do these flus come from? Most of them do come from Asia. And other places where people live in close contact with animals. Actually "Bird Flu" has two animals involved. Both swine and ducks had to be in close contact with humans before the virus was able to make the jump.

6. So should we be scared? Why isn't there more vaccine?
Have a reasonable concern. For any emergency it is a good idea to have emergency supply kit including water, etc. for your family.

As far as the vaccine is concerned America is as well prepared as our resources allow us to be. We have multiple issues we have to be concerned with at any one time. In all reality many more people die of regular domestic flu each year. Our Epidemiologist have a responsibility to vaccinate our population against that too. Our government doesn’t have an infinite amount of money to spend... What about breast cancer research? Should they stop getting funding because there may, or may not be a "Bird Flu?"

If there is no bird flu it is a huge waste of resources. If there is an epidemic we need to be prepared. Our leaders have tough decisions to make based on many issues. They have access to much more information on the topic than we have and they are making the most well informed choices they can based on a careful balance of all things considered.

I hope that helps you feel a little better.

Answer 5

I hate to break this to you, but there will be no bird flu pandemic. Sure, there is a one out of a thousand chance something could happen, but our government is using this mere chance as a smokescreen to cover up what should be a true outrage. The war in Irag is killing and maiming our young men for absolutely no reason at all. Bush is fulfilling his personal vendetta using people's irrational fear of an outbreak which never happened. He tells us first Iraq has weapons of mass destruction, then we are bringing democracy to a country which never had it , and as soon as we leave, will revert to it's muslim roots. It will be ruled by an all-powerful religious warlord.

Answer 6

Stop watching the news. The vaccine will come out last minute and cost a whole lot of money. In the meantime, drink your vitamins, excercise, eat healthy, and get enough sleep. If you around sick people, carry purel gel on you, and wear a breathing mask. Always brush your teeth and wash your hands. Use toilet paper or paper towels to flush toilets and turn off faucets, and open bathroom doors. No vaccine doesn't mean that there isn't any precautions. relax.

Answer 7

There's always the next huge pandemic that's going to strike the world and kill half of us. Remember how SARS was going to infect everyone and kill us all? I believe that a pandemic is due, but I'm sure that we could get it isolated enough that no one would feel the effects like the 1918 Influenza outbreak.

Answer 8

If it happens it happens. Would be a good way to get rid of a lot of excess humans. Nature has a way of cleaning house; this might be one way. If you must ,stock up on face masks, bleach, food and water and weapons because distribution will be the first thing to breakdown. If society breaks down be ready to kill someone to protect what is yours.

Answer 9

idk.. but my one of my friend got me scared of it.. i will not eat chicken..LOL.. but im very scared and yes i hve done lots of reseach on it..but yes i think it will happen again.. i just dont kno when.. also they think that they hve found a vaccine 4 it.. but we dont hve a lot of it..

here r some site on it

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/in_depth/world/2005/bird_flu/default.stm

also CNN has some good stuff on it..

Answer 10

i am. its scary!