The Real Crisis
North Korea’s Nuclear Gambit
From China, Vol. 25 (2) - Summer 2003
STEVEN E. MILLER is Director of the International Security Program at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at the John F. Kennedy School of Government of Harvard University.
While the world’s attention was fixated on Iraq, a more urgent crisis was brewing in Northeast Asia. In the midst of the protracted confrontation and war with Iraq, the deeply isolated, erratic, and unpredictable government of North Korea openly resurrected its ambition to acquire nuclear weapons, and since then has taken serious strides toward the achievement of that objective. Iraq’s nuclear weapons program was largely, if not entirely, destroyed by the United Nations as a consequence of UN inspection efforts during the 1990s, and there is presently no evidence that the regime of Saddam Hussein possessed the capability to manufacture nuclear weapons in the immediate future. In contrast, Pyongyang currently possesses the nuclear infrastructure and materials to produce some nuclear weapons in a matter of months, if not weeks. If North Korea succeeds in doing so, one of the world’s most troubling and frightening regimes will have joined the nuclear club. If this happens, US security will be jeopardized, Northeast Asia will be less stable, and the world will be a more dangerous place. Because the timeline to nuclear acquisition is so short and the consequences of a nuclear-armed North Korea are so adverse, this is the crisis that should have been at the top of the international agenda in the first months of 2003.
This is not the first time that Pyongyang has provoked a nuclear crisis. Indeed, North Korea has been playing nuclear games for more than a decade. In 1985, the country acceded to the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT) and hence voluntarily assumed an international legal obligation to forsake nuclear weapons. For a number of years thereafter, however, it failed to reach a safeguards agreement to allow its civilian nuclear facilities to be inspected by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), as required under the NPT regime. Almost from the beginning of its membership in this regime, therefore, North Korea was in breach of its international obligations. When Pyongyang finally signed a safeguards agreement with the IAEA in 1992 and inspections of its facilities began, evidence soon emerged indicating that Pyongyang was engaged in illicit nuclear activities consistent with the pursuit of nuclear weapons. It appeared that North Korea was separating from its spent reactor fuel the plutonium necessary to build nuclear weapons.
What ensued was a dangerous nuclear crisis far more serious than the public realized at the time. In 1993, the IAEA formally deemed North Korea to be in a state of noncompliance, a status it retains to the present day. Pyongyang was pressured to allay international concerns, but it refused to allow access to data and facilities that would reveal the extent of its illicit activities and restore it to full compliance with the NPT. Instead, in March 1993, North Korea announced its intention to withdraw from the NPT, a decision it later reversed.
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2006-07-07 19:41:54
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answer #1
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answered by Bolan 6
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Honestly everyone who posted before me has done a pretty good job of more or less defining the situation. North Korea has said that they have at least two and probably six nukes. However they have not yet tested any nukes. A test would confirm what everyone has suspected and feared, making them the nineth nuclear-armed nation (the United States, Russia, United Kingdom, France, China, Israel, India and Pakistan make up the other 8)...and pretty much will seal their doom...because everyone will be up in arms against them. China, Japan and South Korea will be alarmed because well these three do not really love NoKor's Dear Leader Kim Jong ill (China is just allied with him for convienience, and the other two hate/fear him). So will the Russians (they never liked the Koreans anyways), and the US obviously will realize that they have a more dangerous enemy than Iraq. But dont expect WWIII out of this yet...NoKor is not that stupid to risk the World's ire on them by trying a nuke test (though after the missile tests of this week, I wouldnt trust their level of intelligence).
2006-07-08 02:49:36
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answer #2
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answered by betterdeadthansorry 5
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According to the CIA World Factbook, updated a week ago, North Korea has been working on "developing a nuclear deterrant". No one's sure if they have a weapon, as they expelled the IAEA monitors.
In the Six Party Talks Statement in 2005, the DPRK committed to "abandoning all nuclear weapons and existing nuclear programs and returning, at an early date, to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and to IAEA safeguards."
Let's hope they keep to this.
2006-07-07 19:48:29
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answer #3
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answered by Anonymous
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Don't kid yourself, North Korea has and has had nuclear weapons for a long time. Not to mention their very close association with China, a nuclear power. Anymore I think countries see having nuclear weapons as a defense, a deterrant, against being attack. So are the North Koreans planning a attack against the US? I doubt anyone seriously considers this real.
2006-07-07 19:46:53
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answer #4
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answered by ndmagicman 7
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They may try invading South Korea...or another Asian country. However, that would be a stupid move on their part because the U.S. and other countries would rush to the aid of whatever country they invaded.
Basically, they're just taunting us because they believe (perhaps rightfully so) that the U.S. exercises a double standard--we can have nuclear weapons but nobody else can.
Plus, N Korea knows we're not going to attack them right now. It would be madness to do so considering how overextended our military is right now and how unpopular the Iraq war is . America doesn't want or need another war.
2006-07-07 19:44:33
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answer #5
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answered by clynnc0 1
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North Korea has nuclear weapons, they lack the technology to successfully launch them. They fired off 7 of them the other day (1 was directed at Hawaii by the way). I think they are making their intentions quite clear. But more importantly, if they do succeed in long range capabilities, who will they sell these weapons to?
2006-07-07 19:50:10
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answer #6
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answered by dulcern4u 3
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The korean war has never officially ended as only a truce was declared so all it will take is for the north koreans do do something really stupid and they will be looking for a new president. As long as the USA doesnt have to send ground troops in because thats when GW will stuff everything up and as ussual us Australians end up going along for the ride.
2006-07-07 19:48:13
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answer #7
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answered by jeff s 1
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My sister, North Korea already has nucluear weapons. But as we have seen in current events, the missles with the nuclear warheads are not working. There technology of sending the nukes is still a little off.
2006-07-07 19:42:25
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answer #8
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answered by de rak 4
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What if we had nuclear weapons...oh, right, we do. What do people do with us? A nuclear treaty would have to be reached. You can't open up a can of whoop a** everytime someone has a new development. We tested nuclear warheads too at one time, didn't we? And don't say , "but we are so rational, and they aren't" Really? Bush? Rational? It makes me nervous that he might push the wrong dang button.
2006-07-07 19:44:20
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answer #9
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answered by crazymomma 4
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that is totally achievable, although maximum good analysts are agreeing that those words "sworn enemy" is a propaganda to impression deterrence. Even their best pal China is in the back of the U.N.'s decision to sentence the assessments, so i extremely believe that the North Korean's gained't attempt to break deterrence. I do believe yet another "Cuban Missile disaster" is so as although... in the adventure that they were to launch nukes, not purely would we retaliate with nukes, yet so would our allies. I have a feeling that even China would change on them. now to not indicate our patriot missile's would bump into and intercept the oncoming ICBM and smash it mid-air.
2016-10-14 05:59:17
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answer #10
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answered by ? 4
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