What would our average expected life span be if we didn't die of sickness or old age?

Question

Weird question, I know, but here is the background. A friend and I have been arguing about how long we would live if old age or sickness wasn't a factor. For example, the only way you would die would be by some kind or accident or human intervention. Assuming you lived a normal life (planes, trains, automobiles, city life), my friend thinks that the average expected lifespan would be around 250, and you'd be most likely killed in a car wreck eventually. I think it would be a lot longer.
If there are any actuaries or people good with calculating expected life spans I'd be interested in hearing what they thought.

Thanks in advance

testing details

The accidents we are considering are the ones that can happen in everyday existence. Everything from car accidents, murder, or plane crashes to shark attacks and being hit with a meteorite are fair game. I guess we could include environmental variables as well, such as earthquakes, fires, and volcanoes.

Old age effects are interesting and the possible effect they could have on increasing the propensity to have an accident, but for simplicity we can assume that everyone has perfect eyesite and health, and that accidents are the sole factor to consider. Pick an age, like 30 I guess.

Answer 1

the life expectancy for anyone younger than about 28 would be less... because they would think themselves even more immortal than they currently do.... there would be more "extreme" sports more dangerous things to do...

or.. hmmm... what about old people... what about the effects of aging... getting crippled by arthritis, or losing your memory, eyesight, things like that? If the quality of life goes down.. there might be more work for people like Kevorkian... (assisted suicide)

Answer 2

If people did not die of old age or illness, that is to say, the only cause of death is by accident or homicide, then we would need to approximate force of mortality, which under your model, would be constant. Suppose the force of mortality is empirically determined to be some number µ. If X is the random variable that denotes a person's age at death, then X would be an exponentially distributed random variable with parameter µ; that is,

Pr(X <= x) = 1 - Exp[-µx].

The expected value of this random variable is simply

E[X] = 1/µ,

which is the average expected lifespan of a newborn life. So for example, if the probability that someone dies in a given year is 1/3000, then the average life expectancy is 3000 years, not 1500 years. This is because of the survival model we are using; since people do not age, and because the likelihood of a fatal accident is constant throughout one's lifetime, it doesn't matter whether you are 2 years old or 500 years old--one's chance of death in the next year is constant. Thus the loss model must follow an exponential distribution, ignoring all other effects.

To put it as simply as possible, the average life expectancy is the reciprocal of the force of mortality, which in turn is (approximately) the probability of death in a given year.

Answer 3

The only way to calculate this would be to obtain statistics from your city authorities as to the causes of death of the local population. Most people die of what is know as 'natural causes' ie, illness or organ failure. After a while they just wear out and you die, possibly of 'old age'. However let's imagine that the average life expectancy of males is 75 years. If you take out all those who die of 'natural causes' or illness then in every 1,000 males there must be some who are killed by accident or design. Let's imagine it is 50. Then you have a 1 in 20 chance of dying from a non-natural reason therefore if a natural lifespan was 75 years and 1/20th died by being killed then you could expect to live for 20 x 75 = 1500 years, before you were killed provided you were in the last 20th. Average would be 750 years. 1500/2. Use this method to calculate the span using real figures if you can get them. Mine are just for example.

Answer 4

Actually, some Gnostics believe that Jesus instructed Judas to betray Him. God used Judas for His purposes. I won't go into the whole Universal Christian bit, because I'm sure you have it memorized by now, Jeff. The rest of it is impossible. The plan was worked out as God the Creator wanted it to be...and as such could not/cannot be altered. To even contemplate that is an exercise in futility.

Answer 5

here's a rough ballpark kind of estimate

this website

http://www.the-eggman.com/writings/death_stats.html

gives total US "accidental" deaths (does not include old age, disease, and deliberate shootings , etc) at about 100,000 / year in U.S. Since shootings would still be a risk in your world without disease, this calculation is a little bit conservative, but still within the ballpark kind of number you are probably looking for

now, assuming that every person is equally likely to encounter a fatal accident, and assuming 300,000,000 people in the U.S:

then any person, any year stands a 1 in 3000 chance of having a fatal accident, and we can assume the ratio even if the population expands or contracts

so, if I haven't misses something big here (no guarantee, I did this in a hurry but you can check my math and numbers and logic) in very rough terms, it would take about 1500 years for the odds to favor any one person being dead

of course, over 100,000 people would die the first year and you might be one of them

THIS IS NO KIND OF RIGOROUS STATISTICAL CALCULATION

I think it gives a feel for the chance of accidental death in the U.S right now.

Answer 6

I've read somewhere that humans have a life expentancy of 120 years no matter what, even you're the picture perfect of health you'll just kick the bucket when you hit 120...

Answer 7

Somebody committed a self destroy.Burst is the Zone Of Self Destroy.This material is the only poison to the human body.Meteors,comets,and asteroids all are made of this non atomic self destroy material.Imagine energy flowing from your face.That is the self destroy material.Without this material in us we would be young and live forever.Before the self destroy we had such knowledge.(my findings)

Answer 8

Well,there's people in the bible who lived to be hundreds of years old....

Answer 9

Depends on the accidents you have.

Answer 10

If we chose wisely where to live, I would say eternally!