to the future and beyond?

Question

"IF" we are on the verge of creating artificial intellegance, and "IF" the calculating ability of computers double every eighteen months, How long before machines are smarter than us?

Answer 1

As soon as a machine answers your questions; and you select it for the best answers!

Answer 2

Well, I'm not sure what you would consider smarter, if you mean their ability to think creatively and actually learn from errors, then most likely never. If you mean their pure computational ability, then right about now computers are as fast as the fastest humans at calulating or logically solving a problem. If you mean how many connections each part of the chip has (verus say, how many connections each nerve cell has{your body's main commucation network}) then assuming somebody finds a way to make a better way of making 3d connections (this is the major limiting step right now), we are looking at 3 more 2 year cycles (which by the way is the preposed doubling time, not 18 months).

I think the last one is explained as well as I can, but to help explain the difference between idea 1 and 2. Idea 2 is all that it takes to play chess (raw computing of where each piece can move and which move would therefore lead to your best postition given your oppenent makes a predictable move), where as idea 1 is also needed in playing the game of GO. There will never be a computer that can beat a skilled GO player using only computations, maybe at some point we will get real AI that learns and actually thinks, but that is not going to happen just by making them bigger and faster.

Answer 3

In a real sense it already has been done. Big Blue has beaten the worlds best chess player.

Answer 4

uh 40 yrs