The northern lights are on a 11 year cycle, when over the next few years will they be at their most active?

Answer 1

There is two kind of Northern lights prediction: statistical and real-time ones. The prediction of the occurrence of auroras is difficult but we do have some success. However, we cannot say that next week on Thursday evening at 9 pm there will be auroras in the sky. But the prediction is rather good over 2-3 days.

he northern parts of Fennoscandia belongs to the maximum auroral zone. In the coast of Ice Sea in North-Norway you will see auroras almost every evening when the sky is clear enough. When moving southwards, the frequency of auroras decreases. In Sodankylä every second night is an auroral night, in Helsinki every 20th. These are statistical rules giving the average extent of auroras. When the Earth's magnetic field is very disturbed, the auroras can spread all over Europe for a couple of hours.

The best time to see auroras is between 9 p.m. - 1 a.m. local time. The best months are February-March and September-October. During summer months you cannot see aurora due to light nights.

In the longer term, auroral displays are correlated with an 11-year cycle in sunspot activity and other perturbations of the sun; the more restless the sun, the more aurorae. Unfortunately, 2006-7 corresponds to a minimum in solar activity, and therefore the number of Northern Lights-lit nights. However, at the most favorable latitudes, the Lights are still likely to be seen even at solar minimum; it's mainly at lower latitudes that they get scarce during the inactive times. The next maximum in solar activity will be in about 2012, with frequent Northern Lights displays likely for another two or three years after that, so you have plenty of time to plan a trip.

Answer 2

It is the solar flares which are on a roughly 11 year cycle, however the Northern Lights are also dependent upon the magnetic field of the Earth, which is in a slight but constant state of flux due to changes in iron position within the Earth's core.

The last major flare eruption was in 2002, so if that pattern holds (no guarantees) and the magnetic field of the Earth doesn't change too much during that time, you can expect the next visually stunning cycle of Northern lights around 2013 (approximately).

Answer 3

I understand solar maximum will occur in 2012-13.

Answer 4

The northern lights were very active in 2002. People in Washington state and New York City were able to see them. So, if they stick to their 11 year cycle, you'll have to wait until 2013.

Answer 5

Since we are just past solar minimum now, the greatest activity should be in about five years.

Answer 6

If remember correctly they are saying that March of 2008 the activity will be getting more intense,, Go here and you can read all you need to about the sun and its activity; enjoy;


http://www.spaceweather.com/