Can Ron Paul win Iowa with these "poll" results - adding in other factors some pollsters might have missed?

Question

Since Ron is now statistically tied with Giuliani, and perhaps McCain (news is from 20 minutes ago), and appeals to more independents and 3rd party voters this time around, could he actually come home with a win, or at least 2nd place? I don't put much faith in polls, as I have always felt his support was higher than reflected in them, but then again, his supporters are of a very diverse demographic, statistically harder to get accurate polling results from.

"In its latest Iowa poll, American Research Group
http://americanresearchgroup.com/
reports that dark horse candidate Ron Paul has roared to a statistical dead heat with Giuliani, one of the front-runner GOP candidates.

Paul jumped 150% ahead from 4% to 10%, which, with a 4% margin of error for the poll, put him in a statistical dead heat with Giuliani, who pulled 14% in the poll.

Paul, technically, with that 4% margin of error was within range of John McCain, as well, who pulled 17% in the poll.

Romney pulled 21% and Huck 23%

sociald - you are very correct, but as far as I know, this is the sample information:
600 completed telephone interviews among a random sample of likely Republican caucus goers living in Iowa.

RTO Trainer - thanks for the statistics lesson, but I'm not a statistician. I didn't even write the dialog in quotes, just pulled it from Google news RSS feed. I think the source is from here;
http://www.opednews.com/articles/opedne_oped_new_071226_iowa_poll_3a_ron_paul_.htm

Micheal P - you just insulted the voters of Iowa, that gave Paul a 150% boost in the polls. He's not from TX anyway, but if you had researched him more, you would know that. Could be a simple, no, or yes, but I would like detail, not fearful editorial.

I'm leaning towards kty's answer for now. Maybe there will be more news before this question is closed. I rarely ask questions, thought this was interesting, since so many have said "he only polls at 2%, then 4%, then 8%" and I once asked what would happen at 10% or higher?

Answer 1

Personally, I think that is for you to decide. Sure Ron Paul can win. Its not over till its over. Just because ABC, NBC, CBS, Yahoo, and so on don't give Paul a shot in the dark doesn't mean he cant win. The only person who knows what's best for you is YOU! If you believe in Ron Paul get out there and spread the word. You wont be alone!!!!

Answer 2

The important about Paul is that he represents a movement that most people don't know about, but many do, and many more will understand as time goes on.

Answer 3

Ron Paul can definitely win.

First of all, the way that the questions are formed when they call people for polls are always favored for certain candidates. When a poll group called me, they ask questions like (and I quote), "Most people in the US feel that Mormonism is a cult, would you vote for Mitt Romney knowing that he's a Mormon?" Most people would respond "NO" to this question. So, the way questions are asked always favor the candidate that the poll group wants to win.

Secondly, many of Paul's supporters are young voters who have never voted before, so none of the polling groups have phone numbers for people who haven't voted in the past.

Thirdly, many of Paul's supporters, and also generally speaking, don't have land line telephones. Most of his supporters have cell phone numbers, which the polling groups don't call.

Generally speaking, the polling groups aren't calling Paul's supporters.

So, the polls (however accurate they may claim to be) may not be so accurate in this election.

Plus, the mainstream media ignores Ron Paul, probably more than any other candidate. So, in spite of all odds being against Paul, he's doing surprisingly well. Freedom must be popular, as he always says.

On top of everything, Ron Paul is very rapidly climbing in the polls. So, even if they are accurate, it seems as if Paul may actually surprise everyone and win Iowa, if not he'll definitely place in the top 3.

Answer 4

You can't apply a statistical margin of error like that. You split the error. Example, comparing McCain to Paul, you add 2% to Paul and subtract 2% from McCain, for a best case scenario for Pual between the two. This results in 12% for Paul and 15% for McCain.

And that's still unrealistic, assuming that an error would 100% benefit Paul and 100% detract from McCain with others in the race. Possible--sure, proabale, not so much.

So, applying the same bad process to Paul/Gulliani, yes, you get 12%-12%. And Huckabee and Romney get 23% and 21% respectively since you've used up the margin of error to get your guy neck and neck with the guy running 4th.

So, as long as we're dreaming, say that the 8% undecided all decide that Paul should keep the $500 from white supermacists at Stormfront.org and vote for him, that still only gives him 20%, 3rd place.

And none of that's going to shake out like that.

Answer 5

I think he has a chance to make a real good showing, If they have a blizzard in Iowa Jan. 2,,,,,,he will probably win, because the Ron Paul voters are more determined to not let bad weather discourage them from getting out & voting.
********************************************************

Answer 6

This poll doesnt mean a whole lot because we are talking about the repulican primary yet they are polling everyone ( in fact the poll sample is more democrat than republican ).

Poll purely people who are going to vote in the republican primary and you might have some insight.

Answer 7

break out the marmalade, skippy...ur boy is toast...he's one 'main stream media' complaint away from headlining in the national enquirer with bigfoot and elvis

Answer 8

No. Anyone rooting for Ron Paul is simply passionate and misinformed. My hats off to you. Give me a thumbs down for that, and who cares. The Republican Party will never let this man represent them. It is over, and was a good show. Now grow up.

No matter what you do, you are beating a dead horse.

Answer 9

Ron Paul will not win, because the voters of Iowa are not stupid. They will not vote for a man who, as Tim Russert proved on this Sunday's "Meet the Press," doesn't know the effect his own policies would have. They will not vote for a man who would saddle the poor and elderly with a national sales tax. They will not vote for a man who has said he will abolish public schools. And I don't think they will vote for another lunatic from Texas. They tried that in 2000 and it failed.

Answer 10

Ron Paul, even tho' he is the best Republican candidate on the ballot, will not win any state. Not even his home state of Texas.