Are election polls reliable?

Question

I am talking about polls from Gallup, USA Today, CNN, etc.

I see some people say that these polls are not reliable or biased....

I would have thought the poll would give a reasonable prediction of the election outcome if the election were held that day?!

Answer 1

Those who believe the polls are biased are really more concerened that the polls don't reflect there own opinions. Take a look to Ron Paul's supporters they are the most vocal about supposedly biased polls. You can't take a look at 1 poll and accurately determine the election, because that 1 poll has a margin of error and could not accurately represent the voters true feelings based upon the wording of the questions asked.

However when numerous polls show the same or ver similar data then you can accurately view the polls as a likely indicator of voters opinions.

Take a look at the polls in Iowa,
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_democratic_caucus-208.html

American Research Group conducted a recent poll which shows Hillary has a 14 point lead, however every other recent poll shows Hillary or Obama with marginal leads. I personally can not put a lot of stock in that 1 particular poll, when every other indicator represents different results.

Answer 2

Not really reliable because they are meant to be a secret. But still have fun posting it though!

Answer 3

Polls are hard to measure accurately. They can't force people to answer the polls. So you'll already have a poll group that sways to one side, they cared enough to take a poll. Then you have to realize that a lot op people, sometimes not even meaning to, will lie in a poll. They exaggerate, or they interpret questions wrong and they'll answer it wrong. Then you have to realize that many of these examples you give, CNN, Wall Street Journal, USA Today, MSNBC, all have political agendas. They can advertise that they are unbiased all day long, and sometimes they are close to unbiased. But they will ask polls that they know will attract the groups they want.

Answer 4

Not all polls are reliable. Some are horribly partisan. Look for bipartisan polls. Ex. Gallup, Pew Research, Zogby have good reputations.

Answer 5

No, because they typically call residences between 9 and 5, so only people that stay home are polled, and they are a very specific demographic. Cell phones are allowed to be polled, but most polling places exclude them because they are not reliable (addresses change and so on). They miss out on the opinions of the working people and college aged people, meaning the people at home are usually only picking their choice based on whatever the media puts on.

Answer 6

Polls are biased and offer no real conclusion. Polls are biased and the people conducting them will find an area to do their poll so they will get favorable results.
Also, Internet polls cannot be trusted because people lie on them, as well as phone polls.
The only poll that matters will be held in November 2008

Answer 7

They are a reasonable picture of the views of 40+ age group. Polls are not allowed to contact cell phones so the younger age groups are slowly becoming more and more under represented.

Answer 8

Polls give you who the majority of the people are for but they can change and are not necessarily the final decision.

Answer 9

yes ,but i think it's not reliable in some courtries

Answer 10

no, technically free voting is a scam, u hav choice of two (or more) electives who could possibly be setups and be preferable for the government.