The ARG polls shows Obama is now the 3rd after Clinton and then Edwards in Iowa.
2007-12-24 16:27:11 · 13 answers · asked by T E 7 in Politics & Government ➔ Elections
No, he will be history if he loses big like being 3rd after john edwards. That is what the latest poll of dec 23 from ARG shows.
He really really needs to win Iowa, or a very strong second. Anything standing short of that will mean disaster for Obama because the momentum may go to New Hampshire and South Carolina as well, especially when Hillary is beating him averaging 19 points in all other state polls.
2007-12-25 04:00:12 · answer #1 · answered by Anonymous · 0⤊ 0⤋
Here are some poll results to ponder. Please note the Insider Advantage Poll which polls not "LV" or likely voters but "HLV" highly likely voters has Obama by 1%. Too close to call.
For Hillary to be in the situation of such a close race at this late stage is humiliating. If she does not win decisively she will be in trouble. If she looses she will be treading water. She has been perceived as the inevitable candidate for quite some time. To loose in any of the early primaries is serious. It gives Democrats in all the subsequent races permission to think beyond Hillary. She cannot afford that with such high negatives.
Obama is in a much better position. While he still does not have most Democrats liking him he does not have many that do not like him. Hillary has a lot of Democrats that do not like her and were assuming they would have to hold their noses and vote for her anyway.
Close races or loses in the early primaries will make them realize they may not have to vote for her after all. This is not the position she wants to find herself in now.
Should prove interesting.
Merry Christmas!
.
2007-12-25 00:50:36 · answer #2 · answered by Jacob W 7 · 2⤊ 0⤋
not competely accurate but Obama has fallen behind Clinton. Realclearpolitics has the most realiable polls on the net and the latest one reads...
Clinton 29%
Obama 25 %
Edwards 18 %
Its still a statistical tie within the margin of error
2007-12-25 02:02:20 · answer #3 · answered by Anonymous · 1⤊ 0⤋
Only if he doesn't win New Hampshire. If he wins New Hampshire which he is predicted by polls to do, then he still has a chance. But the nationwide polls give Hillary a substantial lead. I will take Hillary, Obama or Edwards over what we have now.
2007-12-25 08:24:13 · answer #4 · answered by Lettie D 7 · 0⤊ 0⤋
He is also ranked 1st for New Hampshire. Iowa is just the first of many. There are only three real possibilities for the Democratic nomination. Don't expect any of them to throw in the towel until mid Feb.
2007-12-25 00:32:31 · answer #5 · answered by Sordenhiemer 7 · 3⤊ 0⤋
i dont think the can afford to come in third. second to edwards he will be okay no matter the margin between them. however if hillary win it obama need it to be a really small margin like with in 5 points to still be in the ball game.
2007-12-25 02:21:56 · answer #6 · answered by luis s 3 · 1⤊ 0⤋
It's really hard to say. Winning here will do much more for him than even finishing in second would.
Could he afford to? Maybe. It could put him in position to be VP. I cannot see Edwards being selected for VP again, so for him, he has to be in it to win it.
2007-12-25 05:43:57 · answer #7 · answered by Jam_Til_Impact 5 · 0⤊ 0⤋
the polls will change each time they take them its just too close to call, but he cannot afford to loose Iowa
2007-12-25 02:12:21 · answer #8 · answered by Anonymous · 1⤊ 1⤋
It is only one primary, win or lose.He may make up . If not why should he lose heart. He caught the imagination.
2007-12-25 02:44:52 · answer #9 · answered by Anonymous · 1⤊ 0⤋
no he can't..but if he losses iowa he can recover and win NH,Nevada, South Carolina,,,and he is back in it,, but the chances of all the happening is slim...maybe NH...but yeahh he has to win Iowa.....like badly!
2007-12-25 01:54:40 · answer #10 · answered by whatisup 3 · 0⤊ 1⤋