Does anyone actually think Ron Paul can win one of the first 3 primaries?

Question

Many people seem to think that Ron Paul has a chance. I'd just like to let you all know that he is not going to win, due to lack of support in his party. But if you seem to think he can still pull it out what are your reasons? Is there some unknown poll out there? And do not say the media is conspiring against Paul because his ideas are too revolutionary, this is untrue

Answer 1

no

Tancredo '08...........oops nevermind!

Romney
Guantanimo '08

Answer 2

I think he's got a great shot in New Hampshire. Honestly, I think he'll make a good showing in Iowa - at least better than expected by many.

I think it's impossible to get a truly accurate poll when it comes to Paul's campaign. His supporters don't generally fit into the usual suspects that pollsters target. Many are either voting for the first time or didn't vote in the last election - which means they wouldn't be on the polling call sheets this year.

I'm curious to find out how many people switched parties in order to vote for Paul in states that have closed primaries. Rumor has it that the number of registered Republicans has significantly increased, but I've not found a reliable source to fact-check on.

But what really convinces me that Paul will have a stronger showing than what's been reported is how active his grassroots people are. I firmly believe that people (individuals) who personally spend time, effort, and/or money on a candidate are more likely to go to the polls and cast their vote. The evidence is everywhere that Paul supporters are highly motivated. His fund-raising illustrates this very well, as do all the various grassroots projects and volunteers.

Answer 3

One of the three? Most definitely. That, or more than that, should not let the media keep mostly silent on the man that has broken fundraising records, won most of the party's straw polls, and actually stands, not for winning the Presidency, but for helping America, in the way he knows how. The rest are (mostly), in it for the money and power.

Have you been polled? I haven't. I don't know anyone that has, and maybe have seen people admit being polled in forums, maybe 5 times. Not only that, but we don't know what the polls asked. We also don't know what polls came up with results deemed not newsworthy. We also don't know who commissions these polls.

In a blind Zogby poll, based on policy points, and not candidate names, Ron Paul WON among voters in general. Was that on the news? Not as far as I can tell. No one even knows how many Independents and Democrats have changed parties to vote for Ron Paul, especially since 2004. Polls usually only ask "likely Republican voters", which is based on 2004 or maybe 2006 data. Ron Paul didn't announce until 2007.

When the GOP goes to vote, they will be split up between Giuliani, Romney, Huckabee, and Thompson/McCain somewhat. Since there isn't a clear front runner as oldmedia likes to call it, it leaves the race wide open for a person such as Ron Paul, who evidently has a much more dedicated following than the others, to focus, and win one, and come close to winning at least a few more.

If the whole theory of why Ron Paul cannot win, or is not a front runner hinges on "Polls", what will happen to the sanctity of these polls if Ron Paul does end up on top? It's a weak theory I think, because people are applying the same factors they have applied to every other race in the past. This one is different, with different circumstances/factors, and techniques, even the most ardent anti-paulistinian has to have that in the back of his/her mind.

Now, winning the Presidency next year, that's whole 'nother question, and I cannot attempt to predict that far into the future. It will definitely be interesting you must admit, and may not need the majority of support from only his "party" in the beginning.

"The blind bio question was also posed to a larger pool of 1,009 likely voters nationwide, including Democrats and independents, and Paul was the big winner among that universe of voters, winning 33%, compared to 19% for Giuliani, 15% for Romney, and 13% for Thompson."

Answer 4

There can only be one winner and Ron Paul may not be the one---but for all the nay-sayers a year is a lifetime in politics so don't count them chickens as yet. The history buffs do know that during the early 1800's there was turmoil as there is today on different subjects such as the British trying to help Texas become an independent nation instead of joining the U.S.----Some of the player were Tyler, Calhoun, Jackson,---and mexico was after the land for themselves as they are today---the point here is that Jackson finally came out the winner in his efforts and got Texas in the Union---politics then was even more unpredictable than it is today-----so watch carefully and hope for the best for our country.

Answer 5

The primaries are the key, in my opinion.

Ron Paul is giving America a wake up call that all is not so well in America. Most are blaming it on the Bush Neo con regime, which creates a huge problem for Republican Ron Paul, in the general election.

The way I see it is, most Democrats & Republicans are married into their parties, no matter what the party platform is.

I became a Republican to be able to vote in the primaries for Ron Paul. The old guard Republicans were agahst when I talked badly about Bush's policies, at meetings.
However, I feel most will support the Republican primary winner no matter who it is.

I feel most long time Republicans will NOT even vote in the primaries, and wait to see who does well in the other states, but they will vote in the general election.
The whole RNC is only a few thousand people and I feel the inspired Ron Paul primary voters may surprise a lot of people when thousands of them turn out to vote in the primaries, to outnumber the old guard.

If Ron Paul does well in New Hampshire & South Carolina, in the primaries,,,,,by "Super" Tuesday {Feb. 5th. ??} he just may be on a roll that could concieve-ably catch fire all across the country.

PLEASE CLICK HERE, TO SEE IF HE CAN WIN:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MRTDynbHVYQ

It's Getting Closer & Closer!

P.S. It's possible the Republican presidential nominee may not be decided until the Republican National convention.??..
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Answer 6

I'm not sure.. I'm a Paul supporter, but unfortunately your right.. I never had high expectations, after all this is the same country that elected Bush twice. While Ron Paul could bring a drastic & well-needed change to this country.. his ideas are to complicated to be understood by the average joe. Besides if current polls are indicators, then Hillary Clinton will become our next president.

Answer 7

maximum of themes approximately Ron Paul. i visit vote for him. i'm so disillusioned in the two events precise now... Ron Paul tells it love it fairly is and we prefer a metamorphosis from the comparable old BS we've... purely inspect Congress, what are they doing for the folk?

Answer 8

I'm hoping to God he is. All the poles outside of Fox and Cnn don't even show his name. He is a threat to all the money sucking politicians and big corporations. He is a true American running for President. And every poll outside of it shows him in the lead. Its rigged just vote Ron Paul and shut everyone up.

Answer 9

why not there have been several Ronald Reagan to name one that have won an election with little support from their party.
he has a large people backing no matter what the polls say just look at his fund raising. And if the media isn't avoiding (i wouldn't say conspiring) him to an extent why does he not get more coverage you say its untrue well prove it and using the media who are avoiding him doesn't count of course they would deny it.

Answer 10

new Hampshire if anywhere


and i would have to challenge you on the media blackout they have on Paul , it is true. one story ever other week or one a month is a black out

Answer 11

I hope all you people who don't support Ron Paul get JUST what you ask for. I hope this country becomes a socialist society like Russia was. I hope they take ALL of your rights away. I hope you get the nauseating socialist utopian nightmare that you are asking for. I hope you become slaves to the government that YOU helped put in place. As for me, stop the world..... I want to get off. You people make me sick. And I hope Hitlery, Osama and Eddie boy die of some horrible disease.