I thought this is interesting, and an opportunity for some of the all knowing pundits to put your money where your mouth is:
As of November, Clinton is a 1 to 3 shot to win the presidency according to Sportsbook.com and Linesmaker (meaning you bet $3 and win $1 if she wins plus the original $3 back).
The sites all rate Giuliani likely to win the GOP nomination but behind Clinton for the presidency. He is a 5 to 1 shot on Sportsbook and Linesmaker. In other words, Bodog would give you $9 for every $4 you bet.
Sportsbook has Obama at 7 to 2. Rating the rest of the field, Bodog offers 6 to 1 for Thompson, 8 to 1 for Romney, 14 to 1 for Edwards and 16 to 1 for McCain.
Why is Las Vegas betting hard on Hillary?
Would you be willing to put money on the line?
2007-12-19 04:40:45 · 15 answers · asked by Anonymous in Politics & Government ➔ Politics
Edit: Those Guliani payoff odds are a typo. One bookie offers 5:2, meaning you win $10 for every $2 you bet. They are all different in payoffs and odds. However, they all favor Hillary.
2007-12-19 04:43:21 · update #1
Okay, first off you're flat wrong about the Vegas line. It is ILLEGAL to accept a wager on an election in the United States. Those online casinos you mention operate, I believe, out of the UK. There is no VEGAS line. On occasion the books in Vegas have put out "non-binding" odds for such an event without allowing people to wager on the actual event. But most steer away from even the appearance of possibly breaking the law.
Second: 1:3 if you bet on her to win. What is the line if you bet on her to LOSE? They're usually different, and although I can't check a gambling site from my work computer I'd bet (ha ha!) that the odds being laid for her LOSING are maybe 2:1 or even 1.5:1.
Third, the original odds given on an event are just that: original odds. Bookies actually don't care who wins or even who is favored, they will adjust their odds so they get an EVEN amount bet on both parties. If I went and wagered a billion dollars on Ron Paul (4:1, despite polling only 5%) you can bet that his odds would shoot up to even money to attract more people betting AGAINST him.
Finally, if those are actually the odds, and I can get at least 2:1 on my money, I just might sign up for Sportsbook and lay $100 on Hillary to lose. That's a good bet, as she has to win both the primary (even money) and then the presidency (less than even money) for me to lose that bet.
2007-12-19 05:10:42 · answer #1 · answered by Bigsky_52 6 · 1⤊ 1⤋
Gambling odds are a much better predictor of results than any poll because, as you said, people are putting their money where their mouths are.
For example, in the last election, many polls had Kerry winning the election, whereas gambling odds favored Bush.
I am curious to see a comparison of the odds on Hillary winning from two months ago, prior to the latest push by Obama and Huckabee. I would imagine that at that point she was more of a favorite, and could still potentially fall more, especially if Obama wins Iowa.
2007-12-19 04:55:34 · answer #2 · answered by Time to Shrug, Atlas 6 · 4⤊ 0⤋
Yup, why not stop the ranting and start laying down some money guys? She clearly doesn't have many fans on this forum.
I guess I can see why she is the favorite, being that she has incredible name exposure (similar to what Bush had when he ran the first time). However, I don't think this necessarily means she would make the best president. As we know from the last few years, name recognition and a family member who was a President can work wonders.
I wouldn't bet against her, though I'd vote against her in the primary.
2007-12-19 04:48:22 · answer #3 · answered by Anonymous · 1⤊ 1⤋
Vegas is a liberal town and all influences are for Hillary or anyone else even the donkey to be supported by them
2016-01-13 02:43:33 · answer #4 · answered by ? 1 · 0⤊ 0⤋
If Vegas is putting Their money on the line then that means something.
Vegas is used to making a profit.
You guys can make stupid remarks all you want about hookers and Liberals.
But when was the last time you heard about Vegas making bad decisions regarding gambling ??????
They always play the odds and even though that's not 100% perfect they only need to be right Most of the time.
which they always are
2007-12-19 04:48:52 · answer #5 · answered by Anonymous · 3⤊ 1⤋
Because there are stupid people everywhere why would Vegas be an exception
2015-04-14 20:10:27 · answer #6 · answered by HULKamaniac 1 · 0⤊ 0⤋
The same reason they picked the Patriots to beat the Ravens by 20 1/2 pts. ...
2007-12-19 04:45:57 · answer #7 · answered by Anonymous · 3⤊ 2⤋
1
2017-03-03 15:37:34 · answer #8 · answered by ? 3 · 0⤊ 0⤋
What happens in Vegas stays in Vegas!
2007-12-19 04:50:21 · answer #9 · answered by Clarance C 2 · 3⤊ 1⤋
Vegas also picked the Patriots to win last years Superbowl and you see how that panned out.
hahah jennifer you beat me to the answer :) by ONLY seconds though .. haha I got ONE MORE thumbs down then you.. haha must be my answer was too long for the liberal poll chasers to understand.
2007-12-19 04:45:57 · answer #10 · answered by Ditka 7 · 4⤊ 3⤋