Bayes Theorem?

Question

can someone explain to me what this theory is. I've tried reading wikipedia and all bunch of website but I don't understand their vocab usage <--it's too strong. can someone please explain this to me. i have a project tomorrow about Thomas Bayes please emergency.

Answer 1

P(A|B) is read "the probability of A occurring, given that B has already occurred.

Bayes' Theorem states:

P(A|B)=[P(B|A)*P(A)]/P(B)

In words, the probability of A occurring, given that B has already occurred is equal to the probability of B occurring, given that A has already occurred, times the probability of A occurring, all divided by the probability of B occurring.

This is the same as
P(A|B)/P(B|A)=P(A)/P(B)

Hope that helps.

Answer 2

Write the words like you see it even if you don't understand it yet. Do the project and try to understand it another time. If you don't get it by now, you won't have it by tomorrow. Get the work done first.

Answer 3

I always find concrete examples help me understand complex math concepts. Here is a simple example with a simulation to convince yourself that it really works.
http://people.hofstra.edu/steven_r_costenoble/MontyHall/MontyHall.html