Have we bottomed out yet?

Question

When is the next housing turn around predicted? End of 2008? Beginning of 2009?

Answer 1

Bottom line. Who can see into the future? If any one of us could, we would not be on here answering this question. We would be in the bahamas drinking my ties and smoking on Cuban cigars.
However please know this from an older person that has seen this a few times in his lifetime.
In 1967 the average home was selling in the San Diego area for $18,000.00
In 1986 that same home was selling at 48,900.00
In 1993 That home was then selling at $148,000
in 2007 that same home even in this downward spiral will sell for $425,000
See the trend here?
If home price still go downward it will be about 5 years to stablelize then another 5 years to go on its merry way.
Next year is the end of the cycle. Flat sales no more declines in prices. And the aveage home will be on the market for 90-120 days. 5 years from now that will be 30-60days on the market. Then wehn it all starts all over again it will take a total of 30 days to sell your home. But we have seen the mass rush for the home buyer is now over and it will not ever come back again.

Answer 2

You need to read this article from Harper's magazine:

Harper's
Magazine Subscription
The New Road to Serfdom
An illustrated guide to the coming real
estate collapse
By Michael Hudson
Information graphics by Nigel Holmes
May, 2006

Quote:
...With the real estate boom, the great mass of Americans can take on colossal debt today and realize colossal capital gains -- and the concomitant rentier life of leisure -- tomorrow. If you have the wherewithal to fill out a mortgage application, then you need never work again. What could be more inviting - or, for that matter, more egalitarian?

That's the pitch, anyway. The reality is that, although home ownership may be a wise choice for many people, this particular real estate bubble has been carefully engineered to lure home buyers into circumstances detrimental to their own best interests. (emphasis added) The bait is easy money. The trap is a modern equivalent to peonage, a lifetime spent working to pay off debt on an asset of rapidly dwindling value.

Most everyone involved in the real estate bubble thus far has made at least a few dollars. But that is about to change. The bubble will burst, and when it does, the people who thought they would be living the easy life of a landlord will soon find that what they really signed up for was the hard servitude of debt serfdom. (-- p. 40)

...The problem for recent homebuyers is not just that prices are falling; it's that prices are falling even as the buyers' total mortgage remains the same or even increases. Eventually the price of the house will fall below what homeowners owe, a state that economists call negative equity. Homeowners with negative equity are trapped. They can't sell - the declining market price won't cover what they owe the bank - but they still have to make those (often growing) monthly payments. Their only "choice" is to cut back spending in other areas or lose the house -- and everything they paid for it -- in foreclosure. (emphasis added)

(From 20 Negative Equity Traps Debtors, p. 46)

Log on to the author's website for quite an education. Links here http://www.bccondos.ca/forums/viewtopic.php?t=206&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=15.

Answer 3

There is honestly no way to tell. And every market is different. I know that a lot of large cities in Texas and California are really struggling. But where I live in Virginia our market is very stable. We have a huge military population so we constantly have people moving in and out of the area. We are lucky to have them here, for so many reasons.

You'll never know when the market has bottomed until it starts turning back up!

Mortgage rates were just lowered again. In MOST markets, if a house is in good condition and it is priced correctly, it will sell. It might take longer than it would have last year, but it will still sell. That's in most markets.

Most areas are experiencing a Buyer's Market. So if you are looking to purchase a property, this is a great time! Call your real estate agent and ask for details about what your market is doing. In most markets the buyer doesn't pay agent commissions - the seller pays them from the proceeds of their sale. So I highly recommend "hiring" an agent to represent you and take care of the details for you.

All the forclosures that we are hearing about are mostly people who got an adjustable rate mortgage at the height of the buying frenzy and when the low "teaser" rate period was over, they weren't prepared for the higher interest that upped their mortgage payment. It's a sad situation. I think a lot of people saw those lower initial payments as a way of getting a bigger or newer house than they could really afford. And a lot of people were given poor advice about they type of mortgage to get. Just another reason that every buyer should work with a real estate agent they trust.

If you don't have an agent but you want to talk with one, let me know. I can ask our Relocation Deparatment to find a top agent in your area to refer you to. You're not obligated to use them, of course. It's just a way to make sure you are getting someone with a proven track record rather than picking a name out of the yellow pages!

Answer 4

Fannie May is as of today forecasting a decrease of another 4-5% over the next year and does not see a return to a favorable market until 2009 this does not mean a return to the prices of before just a stabilization as to where they bottomed out

Answer 5

BigDealMaker is closest to the target with his answer. Real Estate is cyclical. If you look at history it is usually about a 10 year cycle. Just as history notes that Real Estate prices historically go up. Everyone is talking about losing money on a house and wanting to get out.

While everyone says "a home is your biggest investment", remember that first and foremost it is your home. Hold on to it and after you live it in for 10 years it will bring you a nice sum of money. Of course, at the time you sell, everything else will cost more as well so it's all relative. Anyone who bought a home with the intention of a quick profit, or shortsightedly thought that they would buy a home to live in for a couple years is going to get hurt. A home is just that, a place you buy and live in for a while.

Look back at history, our parents (for those of us in their mid thirties), who purchased homes, would never have thought to live there for 3 or 4 years and move. It was a home, a place to plant themselves. That's one reason that a run up like this has never happened in the past.

Answer 6

There are alot of predictions out there, but many point to spring of 2008 to start seeing improvements.

Answer 7

I'm guessing 2010 and by 2014 things will be very good for current home owners.

Answer 8

rebel, buy high sell low there's your download keep it low down or was it down low

Answer 9

i thought this was going to be a bum question.......no comment ...seamanab x