Why haven't we developed more accurate weather prediction models?

Question

We're told we're going to get six inches of snow in the next 24 hours. That means we'll either get ten, or a mere dusting. What goes into predicting the weather, and why haven't we learned to be more accurate with advancing technologies, better understanding, etc?

Answer 1

Forecasting the amount of precipitation is one of the most difficult parts of weather forecasting. Often the variability is drastic over a very short distance. Most forecasts are coached in terms of an average over a relatively large area (say a 50 mile square).

The biggest problem with snow, is that it is a multiple of rain. The average amount of snow is about 12 times what the melted equivalent rain would be. So if the rain portion is hard, snow is 12 times as hard to get close.

Mathematical models are getting better but rainfall will always be one that is very difficult unless we are able to collect upper air information in a more dense network than what we currently have.

To improve quantitative precipitation forecasts would require a massive amount of data collection and a corresponding leap in the ability to handle that amount of data and then to process it.

As far as forecasting accuracy, it has improved drastically since I first started forecasting over 35 years ago. But I would be the first to admit, we still have a long ways to go to be totally accurate.

Very unlikely to see that in our life time.

Answer 2

Weather forecasting is becoming better and better with technologies and computer power, but it is still not perfect because weather systems are just too complex and unstable. Think about 30 years ago -- hurricane forecasting was almost impossible. Now with satellites, radar and computers they get it right to within a few hundred miles. There has been unbelievable progress.

It is like trying to predict where the next drop of rain will fall. You know that rain is falling but trying to predict the individual drops is beyond the power of current computers and our understanding of what is involved.

The difference between 1 and 6 inches of snow is very small in terms of the weather, but it feels like a lot to us humans.

Answer 3

If we were to better predict outcomes it would really hurt the odds of the insurance companies and Vegas. So I think it's a conspiracy to keep them in the dough.

Answer 4

You could get a rock and place it outside your front door. If it's wet, it's raining. If it's dry, it's not raining. If it's covered in mud, it's flooding. Take it as it comes and save the worry for something else.

Answer 5

McMahon: I don't know.