How accurate are these primary polls?

Question

Aren't these polls somewhat biased by the fact that most people don't want to answer questions over the phone? In this day of cell phones and caller ID, how can the pollsters be sure they are getting a representative sample of the voters and not being biased by the types of people who do want to talk to pollsters?

Answer 1

True...that is why looking at one poll is useless. The best thing to do is to look at several polls and identify trends between all the polls...this gives you a much better idea of where the electorate is really headed

Answer 2

The polls are fairly accurate pinpoint measures but they mean nothing at this point.

It is true that polls are trying to adjust to the new technology. Most polls are also national polls which mean nothing at this point. You must also realize that most people who have an opinion are open to change at this point and can be affected by the early primaries.

Also the Iowa caucus system is based on a 15% minimum limit so a persons 2nd choice comes into play and anything can happen. About 50% of NH voters are not absolutely set on who to vote for so Iowa can affect that.

And so on and so on...

Answer 3

Bofore the Primary vote in 92' Bill Clinton was polling at 2%
In 04' Kerry was polling between 4%-6%

Answer 4

They arent. Truth be told, these phone callers keepcalling people til they find someone who is favorable to their target and count them asone. Meanwhile,it may take a million calls to find that one favorable and then they add all the favorable ones together to come up with their polls and unfortunately its this exact dishonestly (depends on how you look at it) that persuades the American voters. Just think if our news people and politicians were actually totally honest, what would happen to our deomocracy system?

Answer 5

It also depends alot on who actually go to caucus in Iowa.

The numbers show that Romney on the Republican side, and Obama and Edwards on the Democratic side have the most veteran caucus supporters (with Huckabee and Hillary having more first time supporters). Nor does it show level of dedication (whether they will come out in bad weather etc., and willing to publicly vote for their candidates).

The polls do not necessarily reflect at all what the outcome in Iowa will be (this especially in Iowa since it is a caucus state).

My prediction in Iowa...
Romney for Republicans, and Edwards (Obama maybe but that would surprise me a bit...I think Hillary will try to lend support to Edwards) for Democrats.

Answer 6

inspite of what others have reported, polls concerning candidate power are precise interior of a undeniable diploma at a undeniable evaluate time. Pollsters are conscious of the undertaking which you describe and regulate for alterations between the demographics of the pattern and national demographics. mutually as candidate polls tend to be precise, questions concerning critiques on subject concerns are greater solid to pin down by using fact how the concepts are phrased outcomes the outcomes. the undertaking is that polls are designed to get an answer. human beings do no longer prefer to assert that they do no longer understand who they help. subsequently, polls this a techniques out from the election are seen via insiders to be fluid. In different words, in case you question me who i'm helping i'm going to provide you an answer. in spite of the undeniable fact that, until i'm a political junkie, I basically understand a sprint on the subject of the applicants maximum appropriate now. As I be taught greater, i might choose to alter my concepts and help somebody else. As polls capture up with to elections, human beings have shaped greater sure critiques on the subject of the applicants and who they may help. maximum polls taken only before the election (as quickly as you substitute for the small style of undecideds) tend to be interior of their margin of errors of the somewhat election consequences.

Answer 7

Most polls are slanted in the way they ask their questions, and the samples they take are much too small to have any significance. That's why they vary so much, from week to week, and from pollster to pollster.

Vote for Rudy!

Answer 8

In my opinion the Straw polls are the most accurate.
Why?
Because these are real people that spent their own money for gas and other expenses, in most cases, to attend a real live voting event.

Where as who knows what questions the land line polls may have asked people at home that may or may not have been clear headed enough to answer political questions that usually take hours of research to compare candidates.....Or if the land line polls have any way to disqualify un qualified voters, who just happen to pick up the phone, when it rings.

Here is the latest Straw poll results:

http://www.ronpaul2008.com/straw-poll-results/

You decide who the top candidate is according to these straw poll results!
Thank you.
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Answer 9

they are biased and have been shown to be wrong (very wrong come election time)