In your opinion; Which red state has the best chance to turn blue in 08? Which blue could turn red?

Question

And please explain your reasons for either or both prediction if you like...

Answer 1

It doesn't really matter. In order to win the presidency, you have to win two of the three following states: Pennsylvania, Florida, and Ohio. Pennsylvania is probably going to be pretty solid Democratic for a while, and Florida will probably trend Republican, so it's all down to Ohio.

Answer 2

If you simply mean red or blue based on the presidential election...

I believe Iowa was blue in 2000 but red in 2004. They may swing back to blue. The republican candidates leading in the polls in Iowa (Huckabee and Romney) are not the same as who is leading nationally (Giuliani).

Wisconsin, blue in 2004, might swing to red. Counting just the votes for Dem and Rep (not any of the minor parties), Kerry got 50.2% of the vote and Bush got 49.8%, which I believe may be the closest margin out of all the states (a difference of just over 11,000 votes out of nearly 3 million).

Of course once the primaries/caucuses are over and we have 2 candidates, there will still be plenty of time to dig up dirt and sling mud, thereby upsetting the predictions.

Answer 3

Ohio - In November 2006 Democratic challengers for Governor and Senator swept the state by double-digit margins. Ohio is now a blue state, we just haven't seen them vote that way in a presidential election yet.
Arizona, New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado - All the immigrant bashing will really hurt Republicans in states with large Mexican populations.
No blue states will turn red. Democrats hit the bottom in 2004 and have nowhere to go but up.

Answer 4

Red to blue > Arizona. Blue to red > Iowa.

Answer 5

Virginia

Because Jim Webb will be the running mate of the Democratic Nominee.

Answer 6

California is turning red because of the out of control illegal alien problem.
Unless something is done about it that state will go bankrupt.