CSU have just released their predictions for the 2008 hurricane season and are predicting 13 names storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes, do you think this this is an accurate prediction?
The long term average is 9.6 names storms per year, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 major hurricanes.
This time last year they made their predictions for 2007 stating they beleived there would be 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. On each count they were out by just one (actual activity being 15, 6 and 2).
2007-12-11 03:16:01 · 6 answers · asked by Trevor 7 in Science & Mathematics ➔ Weather
Accuracy is probably the wrong word to use, since it is determined by comparing predicted with observed. Maybe the word you are looking for is "reasonable". Are these forecasts reasonable? Indeed they are. I obtained my Ph.D with Dr. William Gray who leads the group which produces these forecasts. They use every bit of data that they can lay their hands on to reach these estimates of the next season's storm numbers. Of course they know too that there is a great deal of uncertainty and variability in this business. However, I believe that they are more accurate when compared to climatic averages over time. And this represents a certain level of skill.
2007-12-11 03:29:59 · answer #1 · answered by 1ofSelby's 6 · 1⤊ 0⤋
The forecast is quite reasonable based on the current observations and predicted trends.
The main problem is of course is not how many and how strong, but simply WHERE these systems will track. That cannot be forecasted with any real skill this far out. The last two seasons have been active, but fortunately no strong tropical system has made a U.S. landfall since 2005.
2007-12-11 07:13:44 · answer #2 · answered by cyswxman 7 · 0⤊ 0⤋
I think you are trying to pull 'weather' out of 'climate'.
Climate predictions give trends that we can expect over a longer term and over large areas. Predicting the number and intensity of huricanes over a short period within a specfic locale is subject to natural variability. So it is unreasonable to expect a perfect fit between 'predicted' and actual number of hurricanes next season, but it is reasonable to expect (as the climate models suggest) increased intensity, and hence more storms of a given intensity over the coming years.
There is certainty in the trend - just dont try and get any comfort that the threat of anthropogenic global warming is removed if next years prediction misses the mark.
2007-12-11 09:57:43 · answer #3 · answered by Anonymous · 0⤊ 0⤋
Selby, did you get your PhD with Dr. Gray when he was in Chicago, or did you get it at CSU?
I'm a masters student at CSU, and I was just talking to both Dr. Gray and Phil Klotzbach a couple of days ago. They're still quite sure of their theory that the Atlantic is in an active phase right now, despite the last couple of years to the contrary.
2007-12-11 04:55:33 · answer #4 · answered by Scott Evil 6 · 0⤊ 0⤋
..hard telling not knowing. in 2006 they predicted many hurricanes and only got a handful.
2007-12-11 03:39:07 · answer #5 · answered by Happily Hippy 6 · 0⤊ 0⤋
We will just have to wait and see. Won't we?
2007-12-11 03:23:43 · answer #6 · answered by Wounded Duck 7 · 0⤊ 0⤋