What factor does "time" play into a probability equation? (Abiogensis)?

Question

For simplification sake, assume that the chances of life spontaneously and randomly occurring from non-life is 1 in 1 million.
Now extend the time period out for that event to occur to 1, 3, 4, or even 6 billion years. Does the probability change because the time allowed for it happen has increased? Meaning, will the 1 in one million chance have better odds over time?
Please give an equation and state the value for time and how it effects the probability. Thank you.

No, don't remove your answer, please. It may be the only one I get anyway, so it's an easy 10 points for you. =]
I am trying to understand the abiogensis argument from a mathematical standpoint, hence I asked it here.
Alright now I'm off to work on the book.

Answer 1

This is not exactly what you are looking for but it may help you fine out the answer you are looking for. This is the Drake equation, it is used to estimate the probability of life on other planets. It does take time into account in the equation. This one actually has the math built in so you can play around with it to see what differences arise when you change the time factor.

Answer 2

Great question. I'm no mathematician and I will never pretend to be. But in my experience, a lot of people have great misconceptions about abiogenesis.

First, let me say this... pick Acid Zebra as best answer. S/he has done the best.

The most common mistake people make is in thinking something rather complex, had to arise first. That is just not true. Simple combinations of naturally occurring amino acids may have formed the precursors of life that would have appeared as no more than a sort of "energetic organic film" capable of being changed by natural hydro-carbons.

Given the unknown conditions of the early earth and the presence of these compounds, their probability of forming may have been much higher (say one in ten, but that's just a guess).

Acid Zebra pointed out something critical to your question... you have not specified the number of times/unit time combinations were to take place. Think of it this way: if you have an event that will only take place 1 in a million times, and you make a million tries/year, you should expect the event to happen once per year on average. However, if you make two million tries/year, you would expect it to happen once ever six months. Try it 4 million times/year, and it should happen once every 3 months.

That is why Acid Zebra pointed out that it may have been happening on the order of pico-seconds, or almost constantly.


You may want to look at this short article to explain a little:


http://www.talkorigins.org/faqs/abioprob/abioprob.html

Answer 3

I cant give you an equation, but I can offer some logic. If said occurrence happens 1 in one million, it would depend of the lapse of time between each event on whether or not increasing the span of time measured would increase the odds of the looked for event to occur. Does that make sense? It seems that there may be a part of the info missing to give an accurate answer

Answer 4

I have no hard numbers; I think misunderstanding the time factor is one of the creationist fallacies. The chance of winning a jackpot in a lottery once are slim; the chances of winning a jackpot in a lottery where there is a drawing every picosecond and where you automatically play for a few billion years are significant. The basic building blocks were there.

And, as Dawkins is fond of saying, it only had to happen once; then natural selection took over.

Answer 5

I can't say authoritatively, but I suspect abiogenesis is not the monumental hurdle Creationists make it out to be - after all, Urey-Miller got to the amino acid stage very quickly in a simple, controlled (and reproducible) experiment.

If you subscribe to the Rare Earth theory of Ward and Brownlee (I am inclined to), the real challenge for nascent life after being lucky enough to find itself in a suitably hospitable environment is to survive being bombarded - and evolutionarily set back - dozens of times over a period of billions of years.

Answer 6

Acid Zebra

Dawkins is bogus in thinking it should only happen once since a single life span that is short.

Which of course increases the odds.

Answer 7

Time is a great healer!!!