possible solutions for the conflict of china and taiwan?

Question

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Connflict over Taiwan
In 1949, Communists seized power in mainland China, causing the ruling Nationalists to flee to the island of Taiwan.
The People's Republic China implemented a communist economy, while the Republic of China (the Taiwanese government) implemented a relatively free-market economy. Starting in the 1980s, China began a long transition to a hybrid economy that blended the central control of a communist government with elements of capitalism.
China considers Taiwan a renegade province, and maintains that it will never allow Taiwan to declare independence. China has not invaded Taiwan partly because of Taiwan's formidable 400,000-person military with a strong air force, navy and missile capability, but mainly because of the U.S.'s threat to defend Taiwan by any means necessary.
Tensions in the 1990s
In summer 1995, Taiwan began making more movement towards independence, having its president visit foreign countries. After that, China began conducting more

military exercises near Taiwan.
In March 1996, tensions reached a new high when China began extensive sea and air exercises very near Taiwan, even firing three surface-to-surface missiles into waters near Taiwan's two main ports of Kaohsiung and Keelong. China intended to scare Taiwanese voters from electing a pro-independence president.
Between 1996 and 1999, the number of nuclear-capable M-type missiles in China's three southern provinces (within striking distance of Taiwan) increased from 30-50 to 160-200. In late 1999, one U.S. Admiral estimated 600 short-range missiles facing Taiwan from mainland China.
In late 1999, the Chinese government began soliciting input from military and civilian think tanks on reunification with Taiwan. The consensus was that if the Western powers dared not intervene in Chechnya, then they would also refrain from intervention in Taiwan.
2000: Crisis Renewed
In late February 2000, the Chinese government released a "white paper" outlining their Taiwan

policy. The biggest change was that China said that it would be "forced" to use military force to reunify Taiwan if Taiwanese leaders did not set a date for reunification talks.
The U.S. government is bound by its own laws to defend Taiwan if it is attacked, and after China announced its new policy, the U.S. reiterated its military commitment by moving an aircraft carrier off Japan and threatening "incalculable consequences" if China resorts to military action.
Some analysts believe that China has decided that it could win a military campaign against Taiwan, even if the U.S. gets involved. China apparently believes that, if it does not use nuclear weapons or attack the U.S. mainland, that the U.S. will not risk world condemnation by being the first to use nuclear weapons, making the conflict conventional. China believes that its people would tolerate heavy casualties to reunify Taiwan, but that the U.S. citizenry would not tolerate the heavy casualties to be expected from an all-out

conventional war over Taiwan.

Answer 1

Taiwan has truly been a heart-breaking series of missed opportunities since the end of WW2, with the USA being the one to drop the ball each time.

During the war, the Nationalist Chinese (ROC) warlord, Generalissimo Chiang Kai Shek was blackmailing the allies to get more money for his war effort against the Japanese. He was threatening to make a separate peace with the Japanese. This would have been a disaster for the allies, since it would have freed up crucial Japanese resources to fight the allies. So Roosevelt and Churchill decided the throw Chiang a bone in the form of some wartime propaganda. This was called the Cairo Communiqué. It was a radio address only. Certainly not a treaty! and didn't hold any legal force. But it did set the tone for the allies treatment of China. The Cairo Communiqué was broadcast by radio on December 1, 1943 . The Cairo "Declaration" is cited in Clause Eight of the Potsdam Declaration, which is referred by the Japanese Instrument of Surrender. (It is curious how the name changes from "Communiqué" to "Declaration") It has the statement that "Japan should return all the territories stolen from the Republic of China including Manchuria, Formosa, and the Pescadores." While the invasion of Manchuria was indeed illegal and could be termed "stolen". Formosa most certainly was not. Formosa and the Pescadores were completely legal, internationally recognised territory of Japan which had been transfered in the Treaty of Shimonoseki in 1895. Not "stolen".

Missed Opportunity 1:
At the end of the war, the US military should have accepted the surrender of the Japanese on Formosa themselves and that would have been that. The US would have occupied Formosa and run it like other such territories such as Okinawa and would have eventually granted the Formosans their independence. They should have kept Formosa (Taiwan) and China as completely separate issues where they belong!
After all, the Americans were the ones who had conquered Formosa and Japan. They had performed an extensive air campaign over Formosa, (even though they had skipped over a land invasion of Formosa and gone straight to Okinawa instead).There had been plans for an invasion, but in the end, it mercifully did not come to pass.
The Chinese had nothing to do with any of this. It was clearly the Americans who should have directly dealt with Formosa.


Instead, in a perverse twist of fate for the Formosans, the Americans felt obligated to hand Formosa over to the ROC (the Kuo Ming Tang Nationalist Chinese ). The Chinese said that they did not have a navy or any ships to even get there. So the US navy gave the ROC troops a ride over to Taiwan and set them loose on the unsuspecting Formosans, who soon learned why everybody in China already hated their guts. Formosa was quite a prize. Japan had done an excellent job developing Formosa. It was their model colony. It was one of the richest and most developed countries in Asia. Second only to Japan itself. The Formosans, accustomed to the Japanese, were utterly shocked by the behavior of the Chinese troops. They were filthy, uncouth bumpkins. They didn't behave like disciplined soldiers, they were more like free roaming gangsters and opportunists. They stole everything of value they could find and it was all very intentional and sanctioned all the way from the top. The ROC were a collection of gangster-like warlords with Chiang Kai Shek as the top banana. They were shockingly corrupt. They were so bad that the communist looked better by comparison. That was why they were losing the war in China so fast. By 1947 the Formosans, (now called Taiwanese) were in revolt. Thus started the longest martial law in history. It lasted all the way to 1986! The Tiananmen massacre pales in comparison to what the ROC troops did to put down the revolt. They fired machine guns into the crowds. They travelled around and killed at random. They found anyone who seemed like a leader and executed them. They then searched down anyone who was politically active, intellectual or just well-educated and threw them in jail or just executed them. It was unrestrained terror. The world watched and did nothing. An entire generation of highly educated Taiwanese were snuffed out. Their voices and cries for help went unanswered. All the Americans heard were about the "rights" of "Free China" as Madame Chiange made speeches across America to lobby for support (ie. money and arms) for their war on communism. The Taiwanese voices went unheard. The ROC were our ally against communism-heaven forbid we admit that they were just as bad!

The ROC did not actually have any legal claim to Taiwan. All they had was a radio address from 1943! The PRC to this day, bases their claim to Taiwan on this very same thing!

The ROC came to Taiwan under the orders (and with the assistance) of the US. The ROC was ordered to accept the Japanese surrender and to administer Taiwan on behalf of the supreme allied commander, General MacArthur. In the surrender ceremony, the US flag should have been flying with the ROC flag flying BELOW it.
Instead, the Chinese snubbed the Americans and did not fly the US flag at all!!!
They then had the gall to call it a retrocession!

This brings us to Missed Opportunity number 2:
The US should have set things straight right then and there and made sure everything was done according to proper protocol. At the time the Americans were motivated by some unclear and fuzzy idea they had about the Chinese sense of "saving face" It was something they had read about somewhere, but not something they understood. They thought that they needed to let the Nationalists "save face" since they were at risk of losing to the communists in the Chinese civil war, if they "lost face" somehow it would help the communists. So they let them get away with their fictional charade of a "retrocession" What misguided nonsense! The Chinese were outsiders to Taiwan and they didn't belong there.(they didn't even speak the same language)

The "retrocession" proclaimed by ROC in 1945 was legally null and impossible since Taiwan was still de jure part of Japan up to the time that the San Francisco Peace Treaty came into effect on April 28, 1952. After the San Francisco Peace Treaty came into effect, the sovereignty of Taiwan naturally belonged to the Taiwanese people, (not the Chinese-neither ROC nor PRC), but was temporarily held in trust by the USA. The correct citizenship of the Taiwanese people once the treaty took effect was as US nationals-non citizens. Exactly the same as people from Puerto Rico. The flag flying over Taiwan should have been the US flag.

Missed Opportunity 3:
Enforcing the correct implementation of the SFPT in 1952 with regards to Taiwan is America's most serious missed opportunity of all.

The forceful naturalization of all Taiwanese into ROC citizens in 1946 had no legal basis. It was a WAR CRIME. Taiwan was not Chinese territory, it was merely occupied. The Taiwanese were Japanese citizens at the time and it is a war crime to forcefully natualize people in occupied territories.

Japan did exercise internationally sanctioned, legal sovereignty over Taiwan and held de jure title to its territory untill it was ceded in the Treaty of San Francisco in 1952.
Pursuant to the San Francisco Peace Treaty, Japan renounced its sovereignty over Taiwan and title to its territory. Article 2(b) of the SFPT read: "Japan renounces all right, title and claim to Formosa and the Pescadores."
While Article 2(b) of the SFPT did not designate a recipient of "all right, title and claim to Formosa and the Pescadores," Article 23 of the SFPT designated the US as "the principal occupying power" with respect to the territories covered by the geographical scope of the SFPT, including "Formosa and the Pescadores."

Following the entry into force of the SFPT, the ROC government continued to occupy Taiwan under the authority of the US (the principal occupying power)

The SFPT did not terminate the agency relationship between the US, the principal, and the ROC, the agent, with regard to the occupation and administration of Taiwan.

Following the entry into force of the SFPT on April 28, 1952, the ROC did NOT exercise sovereignty over Taiwan and did not have title to its territory.




Ever since the end of WW2, America has been the legal "Principal Occupier" of Taiwan. Furthermore, since the Treaty of San Francisco in 1952, America holds the legal title to the Taiwan territory, In its status as the Principal Occupier, the US has supreme disposition rights over the territory of Taiwan. So far, the US has not signed Taiwan over to anyone. In the 1950's the ROC repeatedly begged the US to sign Taiwan over, but they would not. They would only repeat their mantra that the "The Taiwan Question is undetermined"

Currently, Taiwan is STILL an occupied territory of the US, and Taiwan's statehood status is disputed and uncertain. Neither the SFPT, the Treaty of Taipei nor any other subsequent legal instruments after 1952 have changed the status of Taiwan.

I think it should be clear now that the US is OBLIGATED to defend Taiwan, since it is US insular territory! That's why the Taiwan Relations Act is a DOMESTIC law of the United States.


Meanwhile...
By fleeing to occupied Taiwan in December 1949, the ROC had already become a government in exile.
Under international law, there are no actions which a government in exile can take in its current location of residence in order to be recognized as the local legitimate government. Hence, Taiwan's current international problems have arisen from the fact that the ROC government-in-exile is not internationally recognized as the legitimate government of Taiwan. The ROC should be dissolved and succeeded by a new government of Taiwan.
The international community does not recognize the ROC on Taiwan as a state, because it does not hold the territorial title to Taiwan. In the words of Chiang Kai-shek himself in 1950: "The ROC is a perished nation"

Missed Opportunity 4:
The US should have supported the Taiwanese in forming a government of their own and let the ROC stay on in Taiwan ONLY in their proper status: as a government-in-exile of China. Not running the place!
Similar to other governments-in-exile, like the Dalai Lama in Dharmasala, India. etc.

Taiwan deserves to be a separate and independent country. As one of the "territories which detached from enemy states as a result of the Second World War" defined in the article 76b and 77b of the United Nations Charter, Taiwan has qualified for the UN trusteeship program since 1945! In this program, (like Korea: another former Japanese colony), after a period of time the territory would later be considered fully independent. All members of the United Nations have a treaty obligation to comply with the UN Charter and help the people living in Taiwan enjoy the right of self-determination.

When Nixon and Kissenger negotiated the Shanghai Communiqué in 1972, they seemed to give the PRC huge concessions with regards to Taiwan. They agreed to remove all US military bases from Taiwan. (I'll bet they're regretting that today!) They were very motivated to improve relations with the PRC at all costs so as to get a leg up on the Soviets. But they also further made the whole issue even more insoluble. They tied it up in a delemma which they now call "the status quo" which has been surprisingly stable. They said that the Taiwan question was up to the "Chinese on both sides of the straight" to decide. But of course, the 2 sides will never agree on anything.
From 1945 up to 1972 the US always said that "the Taiwan question was undetermined" That had always bugged the PRC and ROC alike-even if it was the truth.


The PRC reaffirmed its position: The Taiwan question is the crucial question obstructing the normalization of relations between China and the United States; the Government of the People's Republic of China is the sole legal government of China; Taiwan is a province of China which has long been returned to the motherland; the liberation of Taiwan is China's internal affair in which no other country has the right to interfere; and all U.S. forces and military installations must be withdrawn from Taiwan. The Chinese Government firmly opposes any activities which aim at the creation of "one China, one Taiwan," "one China, two governments," "two Chinas," an "independent Taiwan" or advocate that "the status of Taiwan remains to be determined."

The U.S. side declared: The United States "acknowledges" that all Chinese on either side of the Taiwan Strait (ie. the PRC and the ROC) maintain there is but one China and that Taiwan is a part of China. The United States Government does not challenge that position. It reaffirms its interest in a peaceful settlement of the Taiwan question by the Chinese themselves. With this prospect in mind, it affirms the ultimate objective of the withdrawal of all U.S. forces and military installations from Taiwan. In the meantime, it will progressively reduce its forces and military installations on Taiwan as the tension in the area diminishes.

From this point on the US insisted on a hands-off attitude to the Taiwan question; and simply repeating that it was up to the Chinese on both sides to resolve. Was this honest?

The only country which has the treaty authority or power to grant the Taiwanese people the self-determination which is their right, is acting in a grossly negligent fashion. The US should be supporting the Taiwanese in creating a legitimate civil government. This should have been done in the 1940's or 1950's at the latest.

The US holds all the cards, but won't admit it openly.

This is a strange and confusing state of affairs, but one thing is abundantly clear:

CHINA HAS NO LEGAL CLAIM TO TAIWAN WHATSOEVER


Taiwan is a cession, whose status is intentionally being kept in an unclear limbo.

The time has come to make things clear.

We are quickly approaching our last opportunity. As China builds their military, they are getting ready to take it, legal or not, just like Tibet.

Soon, America will not be able to stop the Chinese any longer.
Will we drop the ball yet again????

Answer 2

Taiwan China Conflict

Answer 3

Sometimes I wonder how in the world people in Taiwan (natives and foreigners) or outside of Taiwan would even propose a confederation/unification goal for Taiwan. The people who do propose such a goal usually prop up their idea that Taiwan would benefit from closer economic ties with China- if this is the case, then shouldn't Taiwan's economy be roaring now since the overall Taiwanese investment in China has increased substantially over the last decade?

The second reason usually provided by pro-unification/confederation people is that Taiwanese are culturally Chinese. Chinese culture has historically influenced many other cultures in East Asia- does this mean that those people there are culturally Chinese? Remember that the main factor in determining culture is a common shared experience- and this is something that is lacking.

Some pro-unification people might then point out that Taiwanese speak/write Mandarin. Well let me propose a question: does speaking English automatically make one an American?

Thus the solution of a confederation/ one country, two system solution to Taiwan is a beautiful fantasy for many idealists.

Realistically nothing will change in the short run. Beijing will huff and puff and Taiwan will hunker down in it's brick house. But in the long term this situation will be resolved one way or another. The "status-quo" situation is like a coin frozen in mid-air. Eventually the coin will have to fall and land on either the heads or the tails.

Answer 4

I'm a western person, living in Taiwan.

To start with, China would get a bloody nose if they invaded Taiwan, but the result would be a foregone conclusion. The Peoples Liberation Army simply has too many soldiers, and too much stuff. Same with their navy and air force. Anybody who thinks that the US would get sucked into a war with China, over little Taiwan, is sadly mistaken. Bush would huff and puff, and stay out of it.

I know a really good solution. Leave us be. A mutual non-aggression pact. Or is that too simple?

Answer 5

The possibilities for armed conflict between mainland China and Taiwan are remote although politicians from many places would lead you to believe otherwise.

Most of Taiwan's investment is on the mainland already.

The best possible scenario for Taiwan would be confederation. Taiwan has a Chinese population and culturally has much in common with the mainland.

China could appease many including itself if it adopted a confederation style of government. Tibet, Mongolia, the 'stans' and Taiwan would all be equal confederates with Beiijing being the seat of the federation.

This type of government is best applied democratically with president, governors and so forth put in place and a common group to discuss and implement laws such as a parliament.

Taiwan has already demonstrated that the Chinese are capable of incorporating democracy with Chinese culture although much needs to still be done.

Therefore, if the mainland embraces democracy and quits kidding itself that communism can meet its needs then the door is open for a true solution to the so called 'Taiwan problem'.

You must also understand the millions of people Chiang Kai Shek brought over to Taiwan are by and large mainlanders and represent about half of the current population of the island. These are not the embracer's of democracy however. The native islanders have been the ones to show democratic values out of a need to contain the usurpers from the mainland.

Answer 6

i thinks china should leave taiwan independent ,because chinese leaders believe that if they let o taiwan independent the communist would probably overthrown by their own nationalistic people ,

for this china is use numerous ballistic missile in taiwan strait ,and if they start using missile do you really thiunk that taiwan people will ready to join in any signified political union with PRC

secondly china denies in un that taiwan is sovereign country thus preventing its membership,it also prevent its mebership in any other international organisation


thirdly ,roc that is taiwan currentyly competes as chinesse taipei at the olympic games

china aggressive action has created strong sense of conflict ,it would be able to prevant them declaring independence with millitary force bot they will never acheive reunification with those means


therefore giving taiwan independence would increase there nationalistic pride and freedoms becuase they will be democratic rather joining with china which is communist , and china will have to compromise and i think they will gain nothing by joining 23 million people more in 1.3 billion populated country rather taiwan woould be happy by recognizing them world wide

Answer 7

China must recognise Taiwan is an offshoot of Chinese culture utilized in a profit driven manner and that is not a bad thing. Taiwan must recognise China is it's mother country but the child has grown to be an adult.

Answer 8

Has to be some sort of federation. Taiwan cannot remain independent economically and its current diplomatic and economic isolation are really beginning to hurt. When I was a college student 20 years ago in the US, all of us interested in studying Chinese travelled to Taipei for a summer; now nobody goes to Taiwan to learn Chinese. That is but one example of how Taiwan is basically falling off the map in terms of the outside world's awareness. All the wealth, talent, and resources are going to China...Taiwan's leaders can continue to stick their heads in the sand, as they have for the last 30+ years, or they can come up with creative approaches that further the integration of people on the 2 sides: direct shipping and air links, etc. This will happen eventually...delaying it hurts people on Taiwan more than people on China. D

Answer 9

1

Answer 10

A) China, tired of Taiwan's declaring itself independent, invades with the intention of killing it's political, military, educational, religious, journalistic, law enforcement and business leaders while pacifiying the rest of the population with mass killings, and re-education camps for the rest.

B) China attempts to invade Taiwan, but is repelled by the US, so far the sole guarantor of Taiwan's continuing independence.

C) China leaves 'em alone.


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Answer 11

taiwan give up it independent nation and return to china rule else bloodshed thru out the region.