science help?

Question

Which weather prediction tool is most useful for identifying conditions under which tornado might form?

A. Weather maps
B. Surface maps
C. Doppler radar
D. weather satellites

Answer 1

I agree with the last two answers that this question needs more details, mainly for the time period (now, short term, long term) for which this forecast is needed.

For anything after 6 hours, I would say weather maps for clues as to where we need to watch and how things will develop.

For 1 to 5 hours forecast, you need everything.
-High resolution models that Run every 1-3 hours.
-Aircraft and wind profilers for real-time data and detection of rapid changing features. This data will also tell you weather the models are off. Then use this knowdledge adjust your forecast.
-Satellites imagery will be needed to look for breaks in the cap if the enviroment is capped. Also, with the help of the surface charts, you can find boundaries that models and radar may not see.
-Radar can be used for timing of cell to cell merger or cell to boundary merger and to find line echo wave patterns, bow echoes, and developing outflow boundaries and supporting low level wind shear. An early radar cross-sections of some of the convection will also indicate what the enviroment that may support for the next 3 hours.
So soundings/wind profilers and the four items listed are all important for the 1-5 hour period. Using any one of these alone would not have much be much help.

Finally, for the less than 1 hour period, I would say Radar, follow closely with surface data. Radar main uses for this period is to find tornadic signatures like hooks and reflectivity base lowering of cell, strong wind cuplets, and estimated low level shear, and possible tight low level circulations that sometime the TVS program may not detect.

But let us not forget the spotters. They, in my opinion, are the most important tool for the detection of most tornadic events. No matter what tools you use listed in this question, you are usually never sure if there is a funnel cloud or tornado until you get ground truth. Even a hook echo does not always produce a tornado or even a funnel cloud.

Answer 2

If I am interpreting the question correctly, it is asking the tool most useful for identifying CONDITIONS under which tornado might form.

Forecasters routinely predict the conditions where tornado formation is possible 2 or 3 days out and forecasters often are talking about the possibility of severe weather even 4 or 5 days out. Satellites and radar do not look into the future that way.

This is determined from the prognostic weather maps from mathematical models and hand analysis of surface data as the event gets closer.

I have to admit, I am a little confused on what the answer would be.

The most correct answer in my opinion is;

A. Weather maps. They are used to first identify the conditions.

EDIT;

I keep looking at that question and wondering what is the question is really asking for. If it is asking about the actual
development of the tornado, then radar would be correct. But, still having a problem with the conditions. When conditions are favorable for the development of tornadoes is when the Storm Prediction Center issues the tornado watches. That is often several hours before the first thunderstorm even develops. So I think I shall stick with my original answer of weather maps.

The way the question is worded is not the greatest.

Answer 3

Doppler radar and weather satellites will give you weather detection. But if you are looking for weather prediction, you need several weather maps that can help predicting in the coming hours the expected weather pattern.
Special maps like the temperature and geo-potential height at say, 500 hPa (14.8 inHg) will show you on which side of the polar front you are and the conditions half way up in the troposphere.
A tornado is nothing more than a convective low pressure that occurs when special conditions are met. But to fuel it, you need a heat pump and, as for anything else in meteorology, it can only be known by temperature and humidity reading in many places and at many different altitudes. The data is there. It is up to you to do the right prediction. That's why meteorology is so fascinating: every morning is a new challenge. A cheap and sometimes very useful hobby for many.

Answer 4

It really depends on when you want to forecast a Tornado for. I look at weather maps days in advance to see when the next possibility for a Tornado might be. Come day of then I go to the specific areas and look at the surface maps to see where the best spot is and then I narrow down my area even more. Now I look at satellites to see where a field of clouds is to see where a storm could develop out of. The final step is I look at radar on a specific storm to look for rotation and a hook which signifies a tornado or possibility of one.

It all depends on when you need it but surface maps tells you most about the conditions under which a tornado might form. If I had to choose I would go surface maps.

Answer 5

Doppler radar

In addition to the thousands of National Weather Service trained severe weather spotters, doppler radars detect severe weather. These radars spot large scale rotation from which many tornadoes form. Although they do not detect every tornado, it is likely that they will provide advance warning for large twisters.

Answer 6

Well all of them are useful to find tornado formation but the most important that you ask is the doppler radar. The doppler radar can see the "hook echo" of the tornado and can detect rotation in the the storm.

Answer 7

I would say weather satellite because you can follow cloud size, type, and movement.