Overvaluing Dontrelle Willis?

Question

I've seen many comments here this morning calling Dontrelle Willis a star, and talking about how much he'll improve the Tigers' staff.

Now, I like Willis, but is he really that good? His ERA (5.17 last season) and WHIP have risen dramatically in the past two years, and his homers allowed has risen from 11 in 2005 to 29 this past season. His strikeouts have remained the same, but he's walking many more batters.

To me, it seems like hitters have figured him out and just sit on his fastball, similar to what they do with Barry Zito. So why does Dontrelle get so much credit?

Answer 1

He's a "big Name" pitcher, who does a lot of commercials. Usually when players like him come up at a young age and have success, they get branded "great."

Regardless if they stay consistent or if they resort back to their real ability level.

I think Willis pitched way over his abilities when he came up and took the baseball world by storm in 2003. He's had 2 great seasons (2003 and 2005,) 2 mediocre seasons (2004 and 2006,) and 1 horrible year (last season.)

Definitely being overvalued.
.

Answer 2

Dontrelle is one of those very likable guys and many fans never look beyond his great 2005 season when he won 22 games. If you look at just that than he could be viewed as a star. Unfortunately, Dontrelle has pitched in other seasons and has been nothing more than average. He was 22-10 in 2005 and is 46-44 in all other seasons combined. Dontrelle is only going to be as good as his curve ball will take him because he can't throw his fastball past the hitters. When he won 22 games he only walked 55 batters all year long when compared to his 80+ walks the past few years. When he gets behind on the hitters and has to come with a fastball he is very hittable. I like your comparison with Zito because I believe Dontrelle has exactly the same problem with his pitch selections. Cabrera was a great pick-up for the Tigers, if he doesn't "snack" himself to first base and finding themselves having to move Guillen to third base. I would love to see Dontrelle do well in Detroit but I don't see him as the solution.

Answer 3

I think he is still young enough to learn some new tricks and changing leagues will be to his advantage right off the bat. He has great stuff and really did have an off year last year. I doubt he will win 22 games again like he did a few years ago, but he won't routinely have a 5+ ERA either. Somewhere in the middle is where he should settle. He'll be a nice 2 or 3 starter for the Tigers. Miggy was really the cornerstone of the deal obviously, but Tigers fans should be happy to have Dontrelle in their rotation.

Some guys get reenergized after going to a winner after being on a bad team like the Marlins too.

Answer 4

Well, I am a detroit fan and I'll be honest I like Willis. Is everyone overrating him right now, based on last season YES!!.

That being said, personally, I would've preferred to have gotten Bedard, Haren or Blanton. All three were available, young and great arms.

The upside of Willis: He's still young, he's had success, won a world series, he's still a decent pitcher and then there's also the old saying, a change of scenery will do him good.

When the tigers got Rogers 2 seasons ago the same questions were made, especially about his postseason. You never know what you're going to get and I'm still not ready to crown the Tigers WS, AL, AL central champs yet. I'm hoping, but that's it. Four words for tiger fans (me included): Doyle Alexander and Juan Gonzalez.

Answer 5

One thing I think is being overlooked is that he's left handed. Left handed pitching always is overvalued due to the fact there are less quality left handers in the league. With Dontrelle, the Tigers now have 3 left handed and 2 right handed pitchers in the starting rotation. Two downsides to adding Dontrelle is that he no longer gets to bat (he has a decent bat) and now he's facing the DH. I would expect to see his performance continue to go down but he value would remain the same just because he's a lefty.

Answer 6

Ok, here goes:

Dontrelle Willis had a tough year in '07. Even though it was an "off year", it wasn't terrible. You need to take the following factors into consideration-

*Dontrelle played for a Florida team that was awful, and therefore he got no run support.

*With the Tigers offense behind him, and a new sense of hope in him because he is playing for a competitive team, he will get run support, be confident, and win games.

Answer 7

I do think he is overrated; the Marlins put a high price tag on him and they only got someone to bite when they added Cabrera to the deal. I firmly believe that he is a end of the rotation kind of pitcher not a stud #1 like some people are labeling him as. He does not seem to adjust to the gitters well, he has not adapted at all. His "great" season came when Pudge was catching him. I do not think his stuff is electric like Santana or Sabathia, his curves has a lot of break but it is predictable and players can just sit on his fastball. It is almost like he has never been taguht how to pitch, he is more of a hurler...throw it up there and hope for the best!

Overrated for sure.

Answer 8

I agree 100% not only because of his poor numbers, but because of his poor contribution to the team. His offense with the marlins in 2005 was good enough for him as a pitcher, to bat in the 7th spot. There's no doubt he was a star then, but he surely isn't a star now. He can't get more than 14 wins, less than a 4.00 ERA, and he can't give his team a chance to do something in their respective league.

This guy however, in my opinion, will have a decent first year with the Detroit Tigers, picking up 15 wins, 195 strikeouts, with a 3.65 Earned Run Average. He's not going to get mvp of the tigers, but he'll definitely will grab some media attention and a high spot in the Tigers rotation.

Answer 9

although i am a yankees fan i live in windsor, so i get a heavy dose of tigers rammed down my throat. here's what i think. I think they give dontrelle another go. Spring training is going to be a big audition for him, and even if he doesnt do well, they'll probably still give him a try. He's too young to give up on, especially after the greatness we saw while he pitched in florida. I have a feeling he'll return to his old form. The damon signing shouldnt have really come to a surprise to anyone. For me it wasnt "if he would sign" but "when he would sign". it was made official tonight, and to be honest, i dont like it for the tigers. I know it's only a one year deal but i dont understand how they can pay damon 8 mill, but they cant afford granderson? i dont know, seems like a quick fix just to have someone to start in the outfield this year.

Answer 10

I like how you said the hitters have figured him out... That gives me the idea that in the AL, he'll probably be pretty dominant... at least for a while... I think that a change of scenery and some real run support will turn him back into the pitcher we all know and love.

I'm jumping on the Tiger's bandwagon right now... lol... they're prolly my favorite AL team... Still a loyal Reds fan though... forever and always.

Answer 11

I used to be a big D-train fan but have reevaluated my stance towards his ability. The last two years have not been kind to him. The NL batters do seem to have figured him out and the change from the NL to AL will hurt him most. The transition of NL pitchers haven't been historically successful in the past. Look at the Yankees attempts to bring Kevin Brown, Carl Pavano and Javier Vasquez from the NL. They all tanked as will Willis. The gem of this trade is Miguel Cabrera if he doesn't eat the country of Venezuela. If he does in fact come to Spring Training in shape he could be a catalyst to a division Championship.