Is Hillary Clinton still inevitable for the Democratic nomination? Or will Obama be the change candidate?

Question

Recent polls suggest that Obama is in the lead in Iowa (although statistically it may be a tie). Does anyone think Obama can take this election away from Hillary? Why or why not?

Answer 1

Absolutely! Obama has pulled ahead in Iowa and is catching up in New Hampshire, South Carolina, Utah, and California. He is on fire right now in key primary states. Oprah is touring with him through Iowa, Hew Hampshire, and South Carolina which will give him even more positive attention. Recent polls also suggest that Obama and Hillary are virtually tied in polls of Democrat women, which is a huge defeat for Clinton. Also, new polls released a day ago show that Clinton trails all 5 top republicans (Rudy, McCain, Thompson, Huckabee, and Romney) anywhere from 3 to 8 percent, in a general election-like match-up. Obama still holds a small lead over all of them. Clinton's numbers keep falling while Barak's keep rising. Once democrats relaize that Hillary will have a tough time beating her republican rivals, they will turn to Obama.

Also, take a look at 2004s primaries. Kerry was actually jumping from 4th and 5th place just before the primaries but pulled ahead when Dean and opponents got into attack ad wars.

Answer 2

I hope someone can take the nomination away from Hillary. As much as the Liberal Democrats like her, I believe the Democrats will lose if they nominate her. There's a lot of people who don't just not like Hillary, they HATE her. Fact, they are already organizing against her just in case the Liberal Democrats should pick her as their candidate.

I think IF the Democrats nominate Hillary they are giving up too many votes to the Republicans right off the bat.

Answer 3

The ONLY correct answer is this: She is as inevitable as the New England Patriots winning the Super Bowl or as you earning ten times your money on a stock that has already doubled. Momentum is a powerful force; so is winning.

To take the New England Patriots analogy further, if they lose one game, people won't stop betting on them winning the Super Bowl (though their "invincibility" would be pierced); if they lose two games, it's probably more than just coincidence and people will start betting on others.

Same thing in politics. If you lose one election, no big deal. If you lose two elections, money starts drying up and it's next to impossible to come back (one notable exception being Bill Clinton in 1992 because of mass media portraying him as the "comeback kid" in 1992 simply by placing SECOND in New Hampshire, the slight recession, and the comparable lack of "likeability" in the other candidates).

So who is "inevitable" cannot be definitively answered until the first two or three primary elections/caucases. But the above points are THE VERY CLOSEST ANSWER TO THE TRUTH you will get.

Answer 4

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton trails five top Republican presidential contenders in general election match-ups, a drop in support from this summer, according to a poll released on Monday.

Clinton's top Democratic rivals, Barack Obama and John Edwards, still lead Republicans in hypothetical match-ups ahead of the November 4, 2008, presidential election, the survey by Zogby Interactive showed.

Clinton, a New York senator who has been at the top of the Democratic pack in national polls in the 2008 race, trails Republican candidates Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney, Fred Thompson, John McCain and Mike Huckabee by three to five percentage points in the direct matches.

In July, Clinton narrowly led McCain, an Arizona senator, and held a five-point lead over former New York Mayor Giuliani, a six-point lead over former Tennessee Sen. Thompson and a 10-point lead over former Massachusetts Gov. Romney.

(the silent majoirty ALWAYS pulls the rabbit out of the hat)

Answer 5

Hillary is inevitable. She has planned this run since 1998 when she stood by her man after the Monica Lewinsky deal, and has spent years positioning herself carefully and calculating every move. She supported Howard Dean as head of the DNC, created media attack dogs Daily Kos and Media Matters to attack her fellow candidates and define the election. She has even got the candidates to agree to limit their exposure to voters, never bring up the Clinton presidency and her roles in the scandals, and boycott Fox News where they would be challenged and asked tough questions. All the delegates are lined up. And probably the attacks too.

This nomination process was purchased by Hillary years before the race was ever started.

Answer 6

Obama can definitely take the election

Rudi was crowned the winner for the Repubs all spring and summer, now he is in 5th place in Iowa!

last time around Howard Dean was in the lead in every poll but the Kerry ended up winning

he has nearly as much money as Hillary and a much higher likabilty rating than her, so he definitely has a great chance to win

Answer 7

Obama will challenge, and seems to be picking up steam. This makes sense because Clinton is not going to get much new support. Everyone already knows her and most people have made up their minds on here already. Obama has much more room to pick up undecided votes. I still think it is Clinton's to loose though, regardless of what the polls say. I think there are people out there who really like Obama but think that Clinton is more of a "lock" to win in the general election.

The general feeling that Democrats have is that they can win easily with any safe candidate--and Clinton has played that role perfectly so far. She has avoided saying much, avoided specifics, and is so well practiced at campaigning that it is doubtful that she will say anything to ruin her campaign.

While I don't agree with that thinking (I think the Republicans are inevitably going to loose seats in congress, but the Presidency is still wide open given the moderate platforms some of the Republican candidates are running on), that is the main reason that Clinton is ahead. I think if the political environment was favoring Republicans, Democrats would be more willing to shake things up and go with someone like Obama.

While Democrats might like Obama more, they may not be willing to take the percieved risk in an election that they feel they can win easily as long as their candidate avoids a major mistake. I have a feeling that even though the polls show Obama inching closer, Democrats that show up to vote in the Primary will end up pulling the trigger for Clinton.

Answer 8

I think everyone is going to be very surprised in the primaries. I don't see Hillary Clinton winning the nomination simply because she is a woman and I don't think America wants to see a female running the country. Barack Obama, while very popular also, I doubt will win the nomination because of his skin color. I am just trying to be honest. My guess is that John Edwards will win the nomination. He had great support in 2004 and as we all know, just because you are well ahead in the polls doesn't mean that you are going to win. Remember Howard Dean?

Answer 9

She's definitely not the inevitable winner and I don't think her campaign has ever claimed her to be.
Obama is new and exciting while Clinton is (love her or hate her) familiar and experienced.
One thing though, she's so far ahead that Obama HAS TO win Iowa in order to stay in the race, she doesn't.

Answer 10

If this country has any sense left, Obama will be the Democrats nominee.