Do You believe that the USA could again go into a "Depression" within 1 years time or less?

Answer 1

If the US was to fall into a severe recession or a depression, one would be naive to think that the whole world would not soon fall into chaos. The US is far from perfect, but it it by far the last 'great hope' in the world, without the military and economic power of the US standing in the shadows, the world would soon evolve into chaos and World War. The Europeans have done well, but have been under the 'nuclear umbrella' of the US for over 60 years. As we saw in Bosnia and Croatia, they can't handle a problem in their own backyard. Then there is Asia, how long will the Japanese refrain from building nukes as China becomes stronger by the minute. These are just a few examples, let alone the Middle East, Russia, South America. The writing is 'on the wall' if America falls, the world goes with it. That's a no brainer!

Answer 2

No. We had severe recession and a lot of other economic problems in the 1970's, but that's as close as we ever came.
Recession, defined as two or more quarters of negative US GDP growth (loss, or contraction) is possible, but unlikely.

Most forecasts for 2008 indicate GDP growth in the US at 1.8%, but I personally think that's a little pessimistic.
There are some pressures on the US consumer, but employment, productivity, and corporate earnings are still very healthy.

Definitions for "Depression" vary, but we're unlikely to see one again. The Great Depression was a global phenomenon caused primarily by the tremendous loss of resources from WWI and the influenza epidemic, along with onerous reparations being forced on the losers of WWI. US banks lent a lot to the Germans and Austrians to pay for these, and this eventually toppled the banking systems worldwide.

We have enough regulatory agencies and emergency funds to prevent systemic bank and financial services failure, plus far more in the way of tools (software, math, theory, data, etc.) to measure, plan for, and prevent extreme economic shocks.

Interestingly, during much of the Great Depression, consumer savings were higher, the dollar was stronger, the government had far lower deficit financing (tending towards surplus), home ownership and property values were low, and the middle class was far smaller and less educated.
The US economy was also far different - much more agricultural and industrial than today (when 40-50% is based on services - IT, information, finance, and health care). In 1929, the economy was undergoing significant structural shifts that by and large ended in the 1970's.
So - underlying conditions, financial fundamentals, the regulatory climate, and information technology, and consumer behavior/demographics are all very different today from both 1929 and 1972.

Answer 3

The economy is going to get alot worse before it gets any better....This country is going to have a major major recession and the difference between a depression and a recession is that people have jobs.....The dollar is so worthless that other countries want the price oil to be quoted using the EURO and NOT THE AMERICAN DOLLAR That is going to hurt this country!!! One Euro is worth 1.50 in USA Currency!!! Depression no but a MAJOR LONG STANDING RECESSION YES!!!

Check out this NY Times article http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/25/weekinreview/25goodman.html?ex=1196744400&en=b6510da4418a489d&ei=5070&emc=eta1

Answer 4

Yes---but more likely it will be somewhat longer. Because of neglect by the FED to implement statues of Congress by not writing regulations for the control of the financial system and the stock market we are making the same mistakes that led up the Depression of 1929. Of course it will happen it a different way because of trade imbalances and debt to other nations. On the current course---collapse is inevitable but how long it can be avoided is up for grabs.

Answer 5

Hmm,, it is so complicated, i have spent a few hundred hours researching this
I am uncertain, we are on the edge of a cliff economically.

there may be a hidden bridge...

one cause of the depression in the 20s was wealth distribution
the top 1% owned 42% of the wealth

right now it is approaching the same imbalance.

1% own 40%

edit

watch and see if iran trades oil in euros rather than dollars
this will start a war or collapse the dollar

Answer 6

It would probably take 2 or 3 traumatic events, like maybe another 9/11, oil hitting $150 a barrel, and something else.

No. Even then that wouldn't do it. A heck of a recession, yeah, but not depression.

Answer 7

.It all depends on who is elected to congress,and the Presidency.
The congress can pass laws and approve appropriations and override veto's
the President gets to appoint Supreme Court Justices. That is extremely important because of the decisions that court makes concerning all of our lives. Elect a Democrat and your going to get Clinton colaborators like Ginsburg,who is a hard left liberal. Who believes in incorporating laws of other countries into ours.

For the protection of all of us it's better to have a Congress that the majority control is near that of the minority. That makes it harder to ramrod garbage legislation through. helps to ensure that congress will have to work some what together.

Answer 8

No. We learned many lessons from the Great Depression, and now enough safeguards are in place to prevent a repeat of it.

Answer 9

We'll be alright. We just have to get through the rest of the bush presidency.

Answer 10

Yes. Looks like we are headed that way. One more gift from Dubya.