If the weather man says that there is a 50% chance of rain and it doesn't rain, was he right or was he wrong

Question

If the weather man says that there is a 50% chance of rain and it doesn't rain, was he right or was he wrong?

I wish I could get a job like that!

My father once explained it this way...

They get a meeting of all the weathermen in the area. (Note, I did not say "meteorologists.") They ask, who thinks it's going to rain? If half of them say, "I do," and half say, "Not me," then there is a 50% chance of rain.

Man, I should have known better than to try to joke about meteorologists in this section...

Thank you to everyone for giving me a real answer to my rhetorical question, but I hope you enjoyed the joke anyway.

Answer 1

Neither and both lol
I like seeing long range forecasts that claim 0% probability of precipitation - does that mean that rain is totally impossible?

Answer 2

Probably he is right, if you live in a rainy region where it rains almost every day ( for example here in Ecuador, there is a little city called Puyo), But If you are in the desert of the north of Chile, you arent able to say " 50 % vof probabilities that its going to rain"

Compare the typical problem of the coin ( face or eagle 50% -50%) with the number of days in which it rains for a month or more in your city - area , and then analyze the data ( if the tendence is 50% %50% into the infinite, then the weather man is right (Stadistics Poison Law)

Answer 3

It depends what the forecast is predicting. If the % refers to the probability of rain, then of course he is right !!! 50% chance of rain also inherently implies that there is a 50% chance of no rain. So no matter what the weather turns out to be, he will be right.


On the other hand, if the % refers to the proportion of nearby areas that will receive rain, then it's a different story. If he predicted that 50% of the nearby areas will get rain, and NO AREA got rain, then his predictions would have been wrong.

Answer 4

I don't know if the rules has changed, but not too long ago, the National Weather Service had a precipitation verification rule for any forecast for a local point of interest. The rule was if the precipitation chances were equal to or less than 50 percent, it is considered a dry forecast. So, in this case of the verification scores for that forecaster would count this as a "Hit" since no measurable precipitation was recorded

Answer 5

He right as long as it rained near you and in your area. It is 50% chance of rain in your area, so you have a 1 out of 2 chances to be one of those towns to get rain.

Answer 6

He was wrong. Because if it doesn't rain, then there was no 50% chance of it raining because it's 100% correct that it didn't rain. This would even hold up in court because he can't prove you are wrong for saying he's wrong but you can prove you are right because of the fact it's not raining.

Answer 7

It means that there is a 50% chance that it is not going to rain.

Answer 8

Good question...Did you know that when the weather forecast calls for a 50% chance of rain, that it doesn't actually mean a 50% CHANCE of rain.........

What they are really forecasting is the chance of rain for 50% of the land mass of any given area.........

Answer 9

Neither. Unless someone gives a definite answer, as to whether it will or it won't rain, they can be neither right or wrong... technically :)
Haha being a weather man would rock... apart from the fact I'm a woman.

Answer 10

I would say he is 50% wrong, since he said that there is 50% of rain, not that there is 50% of no rain.

:)