Scary number.
2007-11-20 15:32:05 · 10 answers · asked by Anonymous in Sports ➔ Baseball
821 Expected Life Time Home Runs.
This is how I calculated it:
He averages 136 games per year.
As a Yankee he averages, he averages 157.25 games per year.
He averages 525 At Bats per year.
As a Yankee he averages, he averages 590.25 At Bats per year.
He averages 0.27 Home Runs per game.
As a Yankee he averages, he averages 0.28 Home Runs per game.
Number of expected Home Runs for the next 10 years:
_157.25 (Average games per year as a Yankees)
x___.28 (Average HR's per game as a Yankees)
-------------------
=432.50 (Number of HR's expected for the next 10 years)
Take 70% of the 432.50 HR's expected over the next 10 years do to injuries and getting older thats brings you to 302.75 realistic HR's over the next 10 years.
He currently has 518 HR's so:
__518.00
+ 302.75
----------------
= 820.75 Expected Life Time HR's
= 821.00 Rounded Off
Even though I'm a Yankees' fan, I don't like A Rod, but I do hope I live long enough to see how acurate I am.
2007-11-20 18:24:05 · answer #1 · answered by pedrooch 4 · 0⤊ 1⤋
He'll most likely hit close to 50 or so for the next 2-3 years, so he should be at or near 600 by the end of 2009. If he remains injury free, he will probably average 40+ HR/yr for the next five years, and 35 for the next 5 years. Again, if he stays healthy and doesn't retire early, he'll easily end up with over 850 total
My guess would be 869- final answer!
2007-11-20 16:43:56 · answer #2 · answered by Jon P 5 · 1⤊ 0⤋
The Bill James Favorite Toy formula puts him at 775, but I think that's a little low. I'm guessing he'll play 8-9 more years, and that his total will actually be somewhere in the range of 810-820.
Again, just a gut feeling - tough to really project.
2007-11-20 16:07:11 · answer #3 · answered by Craig S 7 · 2⤊ 1⤋
518 now plus 35 a year for the next 10 years = 868. Subtract injuries and possible early retirement (there's a Sabermetric for this calculation) and you get around 815 or so. That's my official "guess".
2007-11-20 15:40:02 · answer #4 · answered by Legends Never Die 4 · 4⤊ 0⤋
If there is a fair and just goddess 519! During his homerun trot of the first inning of the first game he suffers a career ending injury?
Ok more seriously! 818 looks kinda cool!
2007-11-20 15:49:38 · answer #5 · answered by JimBob 6 · 2⤊ 2⤋
between 800 and 825. Godlike numbers.
2007-11-20 16:38:58 · answer #6 · answered by ? 6 · 1⤊ 2⤋
My guess is over 800 by the time he's done. And that record will not be broken.
2007-11-20 15:35:49 · answer #7 · answered by no1nyyfan55 4 · 1⤊ 2⤋
801- Just a guess but I really think that A-Rod will get the record, he doesn't get injured, and he plays pretty consistently, except in the playoffs.
2007-11-20 15:35:36 · answer #8 · answered by Reyes&Ricky 5 · 1⤊ 3⤋
it will be shocking and i cant wait maybe 810 around some were there
2007-11-20 16:42:53 · answer #9 · answered by Janet ♥(YFFL) 7 · 2⤊ 1⤋
the number will be big enough for ppl in mars to see!!!
2007-11-20 16:24:44 · answer #10 · answered by DA BEAST!!! 3 · 0⤊ 1⤋