When do you think Western nations will stop using oil for EVERYTHING?

Question

Our dependency on middle east oil is getting ridiculous.

We talk a lot about switching over to other types of energy to heat our homes, power our automobiles and machines, and for other things.

I think we all know that one day this will happen.

But realistically, when will we see it happen?

My guess? No time soon. Probably no within the next 20 years. Perhaps 30 to 40 years from now.

The only thing that would make us engage in the mighty task of such a huge shift would be if we were forced to by war or economic collapse.

What do you think?

Answer 1

I like to put oil on my cereal.

Answer 2

So long as the US uses more oil than it produces (or foreign oil is available at a lower cost than oil extracted in the US) we will continue to have a stake in how much oil is produced in the Middle East. That is because the Middle East has 25-30% of the world's known oil reserves, so it can influence world prices and availability.

Domestic demand for oil could be partially reduced through greater efficiency and conservation, but chances are that if tomorrow we were to decide that it was imperative to eliminate all oil imports at all costs, we would do so by other means as well, such as a switch to natural gas, coal and nuclear, since only a very limited amount of total demand could be supplied by corn-based ethanol. I am not sure that under that scenario we would be that much better off.

I would not ascribe all of our problems in the Middle East to our dependence on oil. Another important cause of the problem is our policy towards Israel and the Palestinians. This is evident when you consider that the greatest support for an aggressive US policy in the Middle East comes from staunch "defenders of Israel" (witness Sen Lieberman's pressure that we go to war against Iran, or our recent policy of non-interference when Israel bombed Lebanon). Maybe someday the US and most countries in the Middle East will live in peace and harmony (and why not?) but that day will not come about until a fair solution is achieved in Palestine.

Answer 3

You are mostly correct. The use of oil as a natural resource has problems: the supply is finite, and most of the producers are less than friends of ours (the US). This makes it attractive to find an alternative solution. Their is a LOT of potential profit in a domestic solution to energy dependence. This will and is attracting many investors, entrepreneurs and scientists to mobilize and find a solution. It might take 10-20 years, and probably will, but it could start to happen in as few as 5. So many people are aware of this that it would not take an event such as a war or economic collapse to provoke the change in fuel source, however such an event could cause the implementation to occur quicker if it became necessary.

Don't forget: oil companies are driven by profit. They provide fuel for cars, if they found another source to fuel cars that was cheaper for them, they would jump all over it. Oil is volatile, and global market conditions can raise prices, and they in turn raises prices and get a lot of scorn for it. If they could find a source where they could control the price and keep it low, it would be too attractive for them to ignore.

SFC Ollie has a point too: oil's use in plastics will remain for a long time. However, if oil was removed as the primary fuel source for cars, then 'peak oil for plastics' would take a LOT longer; we would have plenty of time to pioneer a replacement material for plastic.

Answer 4

We won't switch until either the last drop is gone or the Middle East only sells to our enemies. Another factor is that OPEC is considering trading oil in Euros instead of the U.S. devalued dollar. Iran is already doing this. Also, Saddam had started using Euros. If and when that happens, there will be a depression here and will severely effect any country who has purchased our treasury bonds and trades with us.

If some REAL effort was made here to get off of oil, I think we would be amazed at how quickly we could do it if we had no choice, although it would be a painful transition economically.

Answer 5

Did you read the headlines on Yahoo today about how OPEC is losing their ability to control the price of the gas??? It would only take about a month of them doubling the cost on us to send the US into economic ruin and certain disaster. We will not stop using oil for everything anytime soon. The cost to do that is astronomical because everything we do takes gas. Converting is no easy task. The real question is - why have the oil producing countries in the East NOT sent our country into economic ruin yet? Listen, they need the money to develop their nuclear weapons capability then they can destroy us double duty and any other opposing nation. Here's another question: Why if our economy depends on it and if our entire way of life depends on it - would we NOT drill Alaska. We would be the richest nation in the entire world if we did. We're already sitting on the largest oil well in the world but the environmentalists won't allow ANY drilling. Why don't they just let some drilling happen instead of putting our entire nation at risk of economic collapse and putting us at the mercy of the oil producing nations in the East? This is the entire reason why President Bush forseeing this situation occuring - tried to get some drilling started in Alaska but the Democrats opposed on environmental grounds. So I'll blame them when we're back to covered wagons and pioneer life.

Answer 6

It's unlikely our government will do anything until it's too late and oil is being rationed. Our government is not proactive. Like it or not, our country should be permitting and building nuclear power plants. None have been issued a permit since Three Mile Island in the 1970's. Unless demand is cut back severely, alternative energy generation will not be able to supply our countries energy needs.

The world is passed peak oil. Thirty years from now demand for energy will double because of China and India. We need petroleum for fertilizer more than gasoline.

Answer 7

If we keep going the way we are now, the oil running out will put a stop to us using it for everything. I would prefer to see us looking for alternatives now, but it will depend on the next administration to changes policies as they stand now.

Answer 8

When oil companies and car companies release the stranglehold they have on our entire infrastructure. Even though there are already handfuls of alternatives, they will continue to milk oil for every drop of profits they can get..

They will only stop the oil economy when it is no longer profitable for them to do so.

Answer 9

I think people forget many of the other things oil is used for.

Stop and think even plastic is a by product of crud oil.

Answer 10

Not until it actually runs out. The world might end up looking like the Mad Max movies.

Answer 11

When there is none left. What's the option? Peace